Originally Posted by Dunner44
Anyone care to explain what all those funny words are?
I know VORP is value over replacement player, but what are VLOOP, BABIP, DIPS, etc? Sorry I'm not a big stathead.... most of my exposure to VORP comes from football stats (i love football outsiders).
VORP- Value Over Replacement Player
MLV- Marginal Lineup Value
EQA- Equivalent Average
EQR- Equivalent Runs
RAR- Runs Above Replacement
RAP- Runs Above Position
RARP- Runs Above Replacement Position
RC- Runs Created
RC/27- Runs Created per 27 Outs
SECA- Secondary Average
DIPS- Defense Independent Pitching Stat
BABIP- Batting Average on Balls in Play
What do you expect him to do for the rest of the season?
Jpup, there are two schools of thought on that question:
1. Arroyo's BABIP numbers will regress to the mean while his HR rate remains high.
2. Arroyo is the kind of pitcher whose stuff will allow him to produce lower than average BABIP results and his HR rate will drop significantly.
Right now Arroyo's DIPS rate is 1.65, meaning that his DIPS is 1.65 times his ERA. Here's a list of the ten MLB Starting Pitchers with a DIPS rate higher than 1.60:
Jose Contreras (2.66)
Taylor Buchholz (2.34)
John Thomson (2.27)
Greg Maddux (2.04)
Chris Carpenter (1.96)
Mark Buehrle (1.81)
Brian Bannister (1.80)
Scott Elarton (1.67)
Bronson Arroyo (1.65)
Brandon Webb (1.60)
For the most part, some good names to be sure but every one of them currently boasts an ERA much lower than what we should reasonably expect. From 2000 to 2005, only one MLB SP finished a season with a DIPS rate at or above 1.60 (Roger Clemens 2005- 1.61). Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that every player on that list will tighten their DIPS rate to get closer to 1.00. How much closer is the question.
If scenario 1 above plays out, Arroyo's ERA will increase to tighten the gap. That's doesn't necessarily mean that Arroyo's DIPS will increase, but if his BABIP snaps back hard in the other direction while his HR rate remains high we may end up with a guy who'll be on the other side of the DIPS rate fence (i.e. an ERA higher than his DIPS).
If scenario 2 plays out, Arroyo's DIPS will drop and end up more in line with his current ERA. That's the best case scenario, but it's also the most unlikely scenario because it involves on us assuming that Arroyo is a historical outlier.
There is a third scenario in which Arroyo's BABIP increases but his HR rate decreases while his K and BB rate remains constant. That would also most likely lower his DIPS rate- but not to the extreme of scenario 2.
Based on his performance history coupled with his fast start, I'll go out on a limb and suggest an amalgam of scenarios 1 and 3. If that occurs, we'll likely see Arroyo's ERA right around the 4.00 mark for the season. That's better than what I'd projected initially and that projection assumes that his K rate remains constant. If that K rate drops, we're off and running for a revision again.