Originally Posted by Blarkin
I don't see the Reds ERA staying under 5. The GABP is a hitter’s park, and the reds being in the central division face a lot of good hitting teams. Yes the reds can still win a lot of games with their hitting, but I do not see teams like the cards, astros, cubs, and brewers coming in to our stadium and not putting some runs on the board. As of right now we really only have two defining pitchers. The bats will get hot as the season goes along, pitchers will be figured out and runs will be scored. So I say no way the reds keep the ERA under 5.
While this has been covered extensively elsewhere, the park factors for GABP to date (since it opened) show it as a homer-friendly, but run neutral park. It is very double/triple unfriendly.
Based on the numbers, the Reds hitting & pitching the last few years are more reflective of their hitting & pitching talent than park effects.
A number of us have also gone through the exercise of showing how the team can maintain an ERA under 5.00 for the entire season. Basically, we need to NOT have a starter get 30+ starts with a mid 6.00 ERA and we need the 11th and 12th guys in the bullpen to not implode completely.
I'm not saying it will or won't happen, but it very reasonably could
happen. Do a search through my post history to find the full explication.