Originally Posted by RedsManRick
While this has been covered extensively elsewhere, the park factors for GABP to date (since it opened) show it as a homer-friendly, but run neutral park. It is very double/triple unfriendly.
Based on the numbers, the Reds hitting & pitching the last few years are more reflective of their hitting & pitching talent than park effects.
A number of us have also gone through the exercise of showing how the team can maintain an ERA under 5.00 for the entire season. Basically, we need to NOT have a starter get 30+ starts with a mid 6.00 ERA and we need the 11th and 12th guys in the bullpen to not implode completely.
I'm not saying it will or won't happen, but it very reasonably could happen. Do a search through my post history to find the full explication.
This is very true. i would add one point, however. For the Reds to keep that staff ERA under 5, I think another starter needs to be brought in. Between Claussen, Ramirez, Williams, Milton, Wilson etc. I think it's entirely possible that one of them will accumulate a high number of starts and a 6+ ERA. One or even two might surprise, but one is bound to hit his career norms.
If the Reds are able to pick up another starter that's capable of pitching a good number of innings with a 4.5 ERA, I think this team can and will compete.