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View Poll Results: Who will the Reds pick to round out the pen? Pick 3

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  • Jose Arredondo, Guaranteed $1.2 Million in 2013

    44 60.27%
  • Nick Masset, Guaranteed $3.1 Million in 2013

    19 26.03%
  • Alfredo Simon, Just signed $890K

    41 56.16%
  • Manny Parra, Lefty, Guaranteed $1.0 Million

    43 58.90%
  • Logan Ondrusek, 2 Year Deal, $2.3 Million total Guarantee

    29 39.73%
  • J.J, Hoover, Minimum, has options

    38 52.05%
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Thread: Pick your pen

  1. #16
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Pick your pen

    In the majors: Simon, Arredondo, Parra, Masset (DL)
    In AAA: Hoover, Ondrusek

    The way I view this:
    - Simon is an absolute lock, shouldn't even be on the list
    - Arredondo is sort of a RH Parra -- he's actually more effective vL
    - Parra, being a lefty, gets his spot by virtue of that
    - Masset would be a lock if he were healthy, but it doesn't sound like he will be
    - Hoover would be a lock if he didn't have options, but he does
    - Ondrusek is easily at the bottom of the list. He's gotten by on a low BABIP and I don't want to bet on that continuing.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #17
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Pick your pen

    Quote Originally Posted by Old NDN View Post
    In looking at this, how many "long men" do the Reds really need in the bullpen? From the previous posts, I'm seeing suggestions like Simon, Leake. I would have to include LeCure, Ondrusek, and maybe Arredondo as candidates, also. So, how many do you keep?
    Right. Simon is a career minor leaguer who had a decent year last season at age 31, Arredondo is more of a guy to go an inning when righties and lefties may be involved. Ondrusek is a 12th man on the staff type. Parra is a loogy. Lecure seems to have stepped up and probably moves to more of a middle role. Leake is the guy with value and needs ro take priority even if there is no room in the rotation. IMO, Leake is the long-man and the others don't fit.

    Leake
    Lecure
    Parra
    Arredondo
    Marshall
    Broxton ...

    and...

    ... if it was the best pitcher, I'd say Hoover. The Reds probably keep Ondrusek because of his 2 year deal.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  4. #18
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Pick your pen

    RMR, I've noticed in several threads that you seem pretty high on Simon. He's 32 in May and had done nothing until last year. Why so sure it wasn't a small sample fluke?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #19
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    Re: Pick your pen

    I went with Arredondo, Simon and Hoover.

    I see Masset starting the season on the DL, I hope they deal Ondrusek and I don't trust Parra's control. I also don't think it's a lock that both Chapman and Leake season in the fifth and sixth starter spots. Chapman may yet open the season as the closer and I believe Leake will go to Louisville or be dealt if he's not the fifth starter.

    I also believe that there will be another lefty in the mix not named Parra. Whether that is Cingrani or an acquisiton remains to be seen. If most of these guys stay healthy, I expect at least one to be dealt by late spring traing - either for a better LH reliever or prospect.

  6. #20
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Pick your pen

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    I went with Arredondo, Simon and Hoover.

    I see Masset starting the season on the DL, I hope they deal Ondrusek and I don't trust Parra's control. I also don't think it's a lock that both Chapman and Leake season in the fifth and sixth starter spots. Chapman may yet open the season as the closer and I believe Leake will go to Louisville or be dealt if he's not the fifth starter.

    I also believe that there will be another lefty in the mix not named Parra. Whether that is Cingrani or an acquisiton remains to be seen. If most of these guys stay healthy, I expect at least one to be dealt by late spring traing - either for a better LH reliever or prospect.
    Problem is that the Reds have quantity but the quality is questionable. Ondrusek, Simon, Arredondo, Masset, Parra and maybe even Lecure are all 11th or 12th man on the staff types. I can't see many teams giving up much for any of them. Maybe you could package one of with a 10 to 15 type prospect for a slightly better prospect, but even that is iffy.

    Guys like Jon Rauch, K-Rod, Brandon Lyon and Jose Valverde are still out there without costing any talent.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  7. #21
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Pick your pen

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    RMR, I've noticed in several threads that you seem pretty high on Simon. He's 32 in May and had done nothing until last year. Why so sure it wasn't a small sample fluke?
    To some degree, it was, particularly in terms of HRs. But a few things:

    1. He's got really good stuff. His ability to get guys out is not a fluke.
    2. He's always had a 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. HRs have been his big problem. It reminds of another guy who was very similar; big kid, good ratios, HR issues (especially as a starter). Moved to another team where he's pitched only in relief and has been one of the best relievers in the NL the last 3 years. (another guy who people thought I was irrationally high on)
    3. In terms of track record, since 2008, he has spent pretty much the whole time in the majors. He has more career IP in the majors than Arredondo, Ondrusek, and LeCure. He's not a "career minor leaguer"
    4. We're not talking about who to giving out long term contracts here. For one year, age 32 and 26 are virtually no different. For me, age is basically a non-issue when it comes to relievers (and pitchers generally) because their physical skills mature pretty early, it's not a like a young hitter coming in to his power, and it's likely you'll lose them to injury before age-related decline.


    Perhaps I've overstated the case a bit; he's more like a 3.75 ERA guy which shouldn't entitle him to being a "lock" if there are better options around. That said, if you give me the choice between a reliever with a good K:BB but a mediocre ERA and a guy with a poor K:BB but a good ERA, I'll take the good ratio guy moving forward every time -- and generally come out ahead. K:BB ratio tends to be quite stable, even in a small sample (stabilizes at 500 PA), whereas homers and BABIP fluctuate quite a bit.

    I'd recommend this as required reading for any person interested in the research around reliability of pitching stats: http://web.archive.org/web/200801101...itching-stats/

    (note: split-half reliability means the first half of a guy's observed data predicts the second half of observed data better than simply using "league average")

    The key findings:
    • Strikeouts are the one outcome over which pitchers seem to have the most control. Walks are slightly less reliable, but still worthy of mention as a reliable/skill-based outcome.
    • Pitchers are astonishingly reliable in what sort of balls come off the bat when they pitch. At 750 batters faced, the split-half reliabilities for line drives and grounders were above .90. So, to say that once the ball is hit, the pitcher has no control over what happens, is false. Still, overall BABIP is still largely unstable, suggesting that there is little (although not nil) skill involved on the pitcher’s side. (RMR note: it's not that pitchers don't affect this, rather it's that once you're good enough in terms of Ks and BBs to be a major league pitcher, there relatively little else the pitcher can do to effect BABIP)
    • Contrary to original DIPS theory, home run rate isn’t very stable. For batters, HR/FB stabilized pretty quickly. This suggests that the pitcher may be the one who gives up the fly ball, but the batter is the one who makes it leave the yard. So, if your favorite pitcher gave up a lot of HR/FB last year, fear not. Chances are he’ll be better next year.
    • Relievers are hard to project because at the small sample sizes that relievers have in terms of batters faced, the stats used to describe pitchers are largely unreliable. This means that regression to the mean will take its toll on a reliever very quickly. Relievers who rely mostly on the strikeout are less likely to have this trouble.


    Of all relievers with 150+ IP over the last 3 years, none have a worse K:BB ratio than Logan Ondrusek: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ers=0&sort=5,a

    If you have a poor K:BB ratio, you can only succeed if at least one of two things is true: You have a very low BABIP, which is likely unsustainable, or you have a low HR rate, which is likely unsustainable. Sure, Ondrusek has had a low BABIP 3 years in a row, but that's just 150 IP when BABIP takes more than 1000 IP to stabilize as a "skill". Regress Simon's HRs and you have a guy with an ERA in the high 3s. Regress Ondrusek's BABIP and you have a guy with an ERA near 5.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 02-03-2013 at 12:35 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  9. #22
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Pick your pen

    Of all relievers with 150+ IP over the last 3 years, none have a worse K:BB ratio than Logan Ondrusek: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ers=0&sort=5,a

    If you have a poor K:BB ratio, you can only succeed if at least one of two things is true: You have a very low BABIP, which is likely unsustainable, or you have a low HR rate, which is likely unsustainable. Sure, Ondrusek has had a low BABIP 3 years in a row, but that's just 150 IP when BABIP takes more than 1000 IP to stabilize as a "skill". Regress Simon's HRs and you have a guy with an ERA in the high 3s. Regress Ondrusek's BABIP and you have a guy with an ERA near 5.
    This.
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  10. #23
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Pick your pen

    Well, if the argument is that Simon > Ondrusek. Agreed.

    For me the age comes into play when you consider that it took until 31 to do much of anything. Screams fluke. Simon spent time in the minors in 2010 and 2011. I do think there may be something to the relief versus starting stuff, I just wouldn't risk losing some one with more of a future to keep Simon around. I'm not buying the big change in his GB/FB mix in his age 31 season. Fly ball guy through age 30 and now he's this GB machine who also had a really low HR/FB rate? I'd be shocked if 1.) he doesn't give up whole bunch more FB in 2013 and 2.) they don't go out of the park with much greater frequency. I'd expect a 5.00ish ERA type guy from here on out.

    If Simon was a lefty, he'd be more of a lock and the Reds would have passed on Parra I'd guess. Since he isn't he's behind both Parra and Arredondo for me. As you say, Hoover should be a lock but the numbers game probably pushes he and his options to AAA. That's my problem with a 2 year deal for Ondrusek. I guess its OK to keep Simon in the mix in case of injuries when April rolls around, but if they are all healthy, he goes IMO.
    Last edited by mth123; 02-03-2013 at 01:34 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #24
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Pick your pen

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Well, if the argument is that Simon > Ondrusek. Agreed.

    For me the age comes into play when you consider that it took until 31 to do much of anything. Screams fluke. Simon spent time in the minors in 2010 and 2011. I do think there may be something to the relief versus starting stuff, I just wouldn't risk losing some one with more of a future to keep Simon around. I'm not buying the big change in his GB/FB mix in his age 31 season. Fly ball guy through age 30 and now he's this GB machine who also had a really low HR/FB rate? I'd be shocked if 1.) he doesn't give up whole bunch more FB in 2013 and 2.) they don't go out of the park with much greater frequency. I'd expect a 5.00ish ERA type guy from here on out.

    If Simon was a lefty, he'd be more of a lock and the Reds would have passed on Parra I'd guess. Since he isn't he's behind both Parra and Arredondo for me. As you say, Hoover should be a lock but the numbers game probably pushes he and his options to AAA. That's my problem with a 2 year deal for Ondrusek. I guess its OK to keep Simon in the mix in case of injuries when April rolls around, but if they are all healthy, he goes IMO.
    Wasn't Simon a starter until we picked him up? If so, it's not really surprising he had his best season last year. He's not a low 2 ERA guy, but everything seems to point to him being a useful reliever next year unless he regresses big time.

    Ondrusek is really my only hang up in these pen decisions. With as much depth as we have, he should be no where even in the mix. I'm fully expecting to be really angry about that in two months.

  12. #25
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Pick your pen

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Wasn't Simon a starter until we picked him up? If so, it's not really surprising he had his best season last year. He's not a low 2 ERA guy, but everything seems to point to him being a useful reliever next year unless he regresses big time.

    Ondrusek is really my only hang up in these pen decisions. With as much depth as we have, he should be no where even in the mix. I'm fully expecting to be really angry about that in two months.
    49 IP in relief in 2010 with an ERA just under 5.00. He did get 17 saves. He wallked 4 per 9 and gave up 1.8 HR per 9 that year.

    Year IP GO/AO Rate HR/FB%
    2010 49.1 1.18 13.2%
    2011 115.2 1.01 8.3%
    2012 61.0 1.70 2.3%

    2010 was in relief, 2011 was mostly starting, 2012 was relief again. I see the flukes on that chart.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  13. #26
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Pick your pen

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think the Leake to AAA plan is OK, but if he's going to be sent down, it will need to be at the beginning of the season, His option clock expires early in 2013 and after that he'll need to clear waivers even though he still has options remaining. If the plan is Leake in the rotation to start out with Chapman moving in around Late May/early June, they won't be able to send Leake down.

    Leake is going to be making around $3 Million in 2013.
    If the Reds send Leake down in April, when his option clock isn't up yet, will he have to pass through waivers if they bring him back up later, when his option clock is up? Or does that rule only apply to him being sent down, and not called up?
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  14. #27
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Pick your pen

    Assuming Leake starts the season as the 5th starter:

    Broxton - Closer
    Marshall - LH set up
    Hoover - RH Set up
    Parra - LOOGY
    LeCure - RH long man
    Chapman - LH long man
    Simon - RH long man
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  15. #28
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Pick your pen

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If the Reds send Leake down in April, when his option clock isn't up yet, will he have to pass through waivers if they bring him back up later, when his option clock is up? Or does that rule only apply to him being sent down, and not called up?
    Pretty sure its only to be sent down. It wouldn't make sense for the CBA to have a rule that would provide a disincentive to calling a player-up. Hard to find something in writing about this rule. Here is a blurb from wikipedia:


    Additionally, three years after the date of a player’s first appearance on a major-league roster, he must clear optional waivers (which are revocable) to be optioned even if he has options remaining.
    That implies waivers are when being optioned and not when recalled from option. The waivers being revocable means that the team could avoid losing the guy, they'd just need to revole and pick another player.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  16. #29
    Member 11larkin11's Avatar
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    Re: Pick your pen

    I don't think there's any way Chapman starts the season in Louisville, or as the long man. I think he's either in the rotation to start, or on the Medlen track. Now I don't think he's going to be the closer, but I think he'll still be in middle relief/late innings for the first 2 or 3 months. The only time Chapman ends up in Louisville, barring injury, is to stretch out for 2-3 games. Although I think they could even stretch him out in the majors, with Leake piggybacking for 2-3 games. Chapman followed by Leake would be hell on opposing hitters.
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  17. #30
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Pick your pen

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Assuming Leake starts the season as the 5th starter:

    Broxton - Closer
    Marshall - LH set up
    Hoover - RH Set up
    Parra - LOOGY
    LeCure - RH long man
    Chapman - LH long man
    Simon - RH long man
    The way you show it here is why I guess I'm making a thread about it. The Reds have their closer and a set-up guy, but the rest are a bunch of long men or situational guys. There really isn't a clear choice for the 7th (or later if Marshall or Broxton are not available). If the Reds decide that Hoover gets optioned because of the numbers game, its worse IMO. I stick to my stance that the Reds should have DFAd both Simon and Ondrusek. That $2 Million doesn't sound like much, but at this point it would probably get that reliever who fell through the cracks. A guy like Kyle Farnsworth who just signed or some one like Brandon Lyon, K-Rod or Jon Rauch would look better instead. There are guys who fall like that every year who would look better in the 7th inning than this collection of guys.

    Its not a major criticism, the Reds have had a great off-season, but the pen looks shaky come the 7th or 8th inning IMO. Marshall and Broxton can't pitch every day. Hoover and Cingrani are probably the two best choices and I'd guess that neither will be with the team on opening day. Sean Marshall better watch out. Dusty has shown that he rides the guys he trusts in a close game. Marshall's arm may be falling off by Memorial Day. I don't see anyone else who I'd be comfortable with in a close game late.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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