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Thread: Chris Carpenter likely out for 2013.

  1. #151
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals Call 1:30 CT Press Conference - Carpenter likely out for 2013.

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    yeah he had a 3.86 era sandwiched between 4.23 in 2010 and 4.58 in 2012. Jake Westbrook once had a 3.38 era. That doesn't make him a #2 starter.

    Look you can make this argument all you want but Mike Leake was awful this year and if everything goes well for chapman, he will never be anything more than a spot starter for the reds ever again.

    And, if that production makes him easily a #3 and possibly a #2 then Bailey is a bonafide #2 and possibly a #1? Give me a break.
    Not that WAR is the be-all and end-all, but in 30 starts, Leake had 1.5 fWAR. On top of that, it was a down year.

    On the other hand, Kelly had a career year--which covered 24 games including 16 stats--and ended with only 1.0 fWAR.

    Both Leake and Kelly have room to grow, and I wouldn't make any guarantees about either of them having a better future than the other. However, saying Kelly is "far and away more talented than Leake" is borderline asinine imho.

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  3. #152
    Salukifan2
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    Re: Cardinals Call 1:30 CT Press Conference - Carpenter likely out for 2013.

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Not that WAR is the be-all and end-all, but in 30 starts, Leake had 1.5 fWAR. On top of that, it was a down year.

    On the other hand, Kelly had a career year--which covered 24 games including 16 stats--and ended with only 1.0 fWAR.

    Both Leake and Kelly have room to grow, and I wouldn't make any guarantees about either of them having a better future than the other. However, saying Kelly is "far and away more talented than Leake" is borderline asinine imho.
    He made 10 less starts. Also, i'm no sabremetric guru but from everything ive heard pitching WAR is not that useful of a stat like it is for batters.

  4. #153
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals Call 1:30 CT Press Conference - Carpenter likely out for 2013.

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    He made 10 less starts. Also, i'm no sabremetric guru but from everything ive heard pitching WAR is not that useful of a stat like it is for batters.
    I already acknowledged the difference in their number of appearances. All in all, you can argue that Kelly had a slightly-better 2012 than Leake, but that's as far as you can get in regards to the picture you're trying to paint, which is that Kelly is "far and away more talented than Leake". You have nothing yet to back up that claim except fastball velocity, which is ridiculous.

  5. #154
    Salukifan2
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    Re: Cardinals Call 1:30 CT Press Conference - Carpenter likely out for 2013.

    At this point time is the only thing that will tell

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals Call 1:30 CT Press Conference

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    It really dependson how you place the starters order. Even accepting Mike's analysis:

    Cueto=Wainwright
    Latos>Lynn
    Bailey>Keely or Miller
    Arroyo>Garcia
    Leake=Westbrrok
    I'd order it like this:

    Cueto > Wainwright (the last two years count)
    Latos > Lynn (I'll pick Latos as the top starter from either team in 2013)
    Arroyo > Westbrook (Reds have got the better vet)
    Bailey=Garcia (might lean toward Garcia, but not up to date on his health)
    Chapman ~ Miller (too many unknowns)
    Leake > Kelly (I'll take the semi-experienced pitcher over the inexperienced thrower)
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  8. #156
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    Re: Cardinals Call 1:30 CT Press Conference

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Yeah, I actually admire Carp and the Cards for that. In this day of babying pitchers, I like when they let them pitch when the season is on the line.
    Maybe if they had babied him they wouldn't have needed to have a press conference today to announce that he can't pitch anymore? Who knows?

  9. #157
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    Re: Cardinals Call 1:30 CT Press Conference - Carpenter likely out for 2013.

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    At this point time is the only thing that will tell
    You should have just led with this instead of the pretense that "clearly Kelly is more talented," because this comment is the first sensible thing you've said in this thread.

    No matter how matter-of-factly you say it, the numbers simply don't differentiate between what Kelly and Leake have done so far.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  11. #158
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    Re: Cardinals Call 1:30 CT Press Conference

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Next we can talk about if Jay Bruce is too inconsistent.
    Is there a correct amount of inconsistent one can be before stepping over the line and becoming too inconsistent?
    I've been to dinner at Jimmy Buffet's house, and I've eaten it at a homeless shelter. And there's great joy and harrowing terror to be found in both places.
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    Re: Cardinals Call 1:30 CT Press Conference

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Only a part, though. Bengals and Browns fans will say the Steelers are their biggest rival but the Steelers have dominated both teams over the past 40 years. I think familiarity plays a larger part in it than whether the teams are good.
    There was a good piece from an IU based writer a week or so ago about this.

    Basically the thinking was the "Rivalry" in terms of "hatred" really only goes against the more successful team. The more successful team rarely hates the less successful team with nearly the same venom.

    You'd rarely hear a "Red Sox suck" chant at Yankee Stadium, especially not in a non Yankees-Red Sox game. But the Yankees suck chant breaks out all the time at Fenway.

    Bengals and Browns fans hate the Steelers, but Steeler fans hate Baltimore much more than either Cincinnati or Cleveland because the Ravens have been a much larger thorn in the Steelers side in recent history.

    So it wouldn't surprise me if Cardinal fans don't hate the Reds with the same venom that many Reds fans hate the Cardinals. It's not an arrogance thing, but what have the Reds achieved that the Cardinals haven't recently?

    The Reds have won a few division crowns but haven't advanced as far as the Cardinals in the last two years.

    By any objective measure, the Cardinals are the more successful team historically.

    So why would they hate the Reds? Why would they consider the Reds a rival?
    Because we're in the same division?
    Are the Pirates the Reds rival?

    I suppose you could say the Reds have been the most successful challenger to them over the past three years, but three years do not a rivalry make.


    *Terms like Hate and rivalry are obviously subjective.
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  15. #160
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    Re: Cardinals Call 1:30 CT Press Conference

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'd order it like this:

    Cueto > Wainwright (the last two years count)
    Latos > Lynn (I'll pick Latos as the top starter from either team in 2013)
    Arroyo > Westbrook (Reds have got the better vet)
    Bailey=Garcia (might lean toward Garcia, but not up to date on his health)
    Chapman ~ Miller (too many unknowns)
    Leake > Kelly (I'll take the semi-experienced pitcher over the inexperienced thrower)
    I really think Arroyo is about equal with Westbrook. Both are unreliable except for the fact that they give both of their team innings. I have a feeling that Rosenthal will get the nod over Kelly and in that scenario, I think he's far superior than Leake is. Plus, I truly feel that the Reds will suffer some injuries from the starters this year and I like the Cardinals depth more.

    Besides, the Cardinals pitching staff will be able to match up with many of their opponents and they will still be able to outslug most teams. I don't see an issue with the Cardinals competing this year.
    Our next home stand follows this road trip.

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  16. #161
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals Call 1:30 CT Press Conference - Carpenter likely out for 2013.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    You should have just led with this instead of the pretense that "clearly Kelly is more talented," because this comment is the first sensible thing you've said in this thread.

    No matter how matter-of-factly you say it, the numbers simply don't differentiate between what Kelly and Leake have done so far.
    There's a much larger sample size for Leake to correlate what kind of pitcher he may or may not be. Kelly's sample size is too small to determine what kind of pitcher he will be. I personally think Kelly is more talented or at least has more upside.

    EDIT: Of course, this board thought I was borderline delusional when I said Edmonds was a far better CF than Eric Davis was, so what do I know?
    Last edited by MikeThierry; 02-06-2013 at 10:01 AM.
    Our next home stand follows this road trip.

    I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah. says on the day before Easter

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  17. #162
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals Call 1:30 CT Press Conference

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'd order it like this:

    Cueto > Wainwright (the last two years count)
    Latos > Lynn (I'll pick Latos as the top starter from either team in 2013)
    Arroyo > Westbrook (Reds have got the better vet)
    Bailey=Garcia (might lean toward Garcia, but not up to date on his health)
    Chapman ~ Miller (too many unknowns)
    Leake > Kelly (I'll take the semi-experienced pitcher over the inexperienced thrower)
    Cueto = Wainwright. Everything counts but I would be more comfortable with Wainwright over Cueto. Cueto always worries me, can he keep it up.

    Latos > Lynn. I don't think this is even close. Lynn was good last year early but not late. The league may have him figured out.

    Arroyo > Westbrook. Arroyo has been slightly better over his career, I don't see that changing anytime soon.

    Bailey > Garcia. If I am going to make Wainwright equal to Cueto I have to give the advantage to Bailey. Bailey got his stuff together down the stretch while Garcia had injury concerns. If Garcia stays healthy I think its a push, although I am high on Bailey right now.

    Leake = Kelly/Miller/etc. Leake is a more known commodity. Upside goes to the Cards, floor goes to Leake.

    Champan > Anything. Chapman is the ultimate wild card. I don't know what he will do as a starter but he could be anywhere from and ace to a guy who has trouble starting for the first time in a while. Chapman has an upside that is greater than most pitchers in baseball.

  18. #163
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals Call 1:30 CT Press Conference

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    I lived in St. louis for 9 years. The only team that the cardinal fans HATE year in and year out no matter the record is the New York Mets.
    I'm curious. Why do Cardinals fans hate the Mets?

  19. #164
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    Re: Cardinals Call 1:30 CT Press Conference

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    I'm curious. Why do Cardinals fans hate the Mets?
    Because their fans get to eat real pizza

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  21. #165
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    Re: Cardinals Call 1:30 CT Press Conference - Carpenter likely out for 2013.

    Are we including Leake's bat, legs and fielding into these equations?
    Last edited by Helms1; 02-06-2013 at 10:12 AM.


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