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Thread: Ryan Braun going down?

  1. #271
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    What do the error bars look like? The graph suggests that a little more than an additioanl 1.5 player's had a power spike during PEDs era versus the golden and balanced eras.

    We know alot of other factors were at play during '94-'04 as well. It just doesn't look like that big of an effect based upon the graph.
    And jojo, there is plenty of gray area on this subject and plenty of decent points to be made. But as with your correcting the record of Arroyos tenure here earlier today, perhaps you can understand my not wanting that fact to pass thru unchecked. There were more power spikes. I'm open to having a factually honest discussion about that and why that may be. But to ignore that fact is not being up front to anyone who just reads the post and accepts that as is. I do believe Nate Silver was misrepresented earlier, and would like the record I show that. What I mean by that is with Nate openly questioning himself on the second graph, I don't believe he would assert that it is proof of anything.

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  3. #272
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Nate Silver himself said it is a chicken and the egg argument. Perhaps the power spikes led to more league offense, or it could be vice versa, sure. But you are only arguing it in one direction.

  4. #273
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Well my work is done here. I have planted the seed in some minds that may sprout and help them come to the realization that steroids were not as game-changing as we have been led to believe. Hopefully some people will investigate further and learn more about the subject. I know it is hard to believe that everything we have been told about steroids destroying the record books is false. At first glance it seems obvious that steroids caused more home runs. But once you look a bit deeper you begin to see a lot of other factors that contributed to increased scoring and home run hitting. Then you begin go to see that the history of steroid usage does not line up with the rates of scoring and home run hitting. Then it becomes pretty obvious that steroids were only a minor factor. I will leave it at that. I don't expect to change everyones' mind overnight. It takes awhile to digest.

  5. #274
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Ha! "Smarter than thou" much?

  6. #275
    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Again, if steroids/HGH had helped weight lifters as much as you think it did then why were their records all broken after steroids and HGH were eliminated due to tough PED testing in the Olympics? Perhaps steroids were not nearly as effective as we were led to believe at the time.
    Ever...ah...lifted weights naturally and compared yourself to someone who juiced?
    If you're watchin' a parade, make sure you stand in one spot, don't follow it, it never changes. And if the parade is boring, run in the opposite direction, you will fast-foward the parade. --Mitch Hedberg

  7. #276
    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    You know, maybe Lance Armstrong could have won even more Tour De France's if only he would have laid off the roids!
    If you're watchin' a parade, make sure you stand in one spot, don't follow it, it never changes. And if the parade is boring, run in the opposite direction, you will fast-foward the parade. --Mitch Hedberg

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  9. #277
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    And jojo, there is plenty of gray area on this subject and plenty of decent points to be made. But as with your correcting the record of Arroyos tenure here earlier today, perhaps you can understand my not wanting that fact to pass thru unchecked. There were more power spikes. I'm open to having a factually honest discussion about that and why that may be. But to ignore that fact is not being up front to anyone who just reads the post and accepts that as is. I do believe Nate Silver was misrepresented earlier, and would like the record I show that. What I mean by that is with Nate openly questioning himself on the second graph, I don't believe he would assert that it is proof of anything.
    It wasn't a question meant to be argumentative. I'm pretty curious. My guess is that the best we can talk about are trends because of all of the noise in such a complex thing as baseball. But that's a problem with a lot of issues with baseball and not an argument that steroids didn't effect the game.

    There's lots a problems here. Maybe a first problem is trying to figure out just what was a clean baseline? I'm not sure we really enough know enough to establish an accurate basis for comparison.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #278
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It wasn't a question meant to be argumentative. I'm pretty curious. My guess is that the best we can talk about are trends because of all of the noise in such a complex thing as baseball. But that's a problem with a lot of issues with baseball and not an argument that steroids didn't effect the game.

    There's lots a problems here. Maybe a first problem is trying to figure out just what was a clean baseline? I'm not sure we really enough know enough to establish an accurate basis for comparison.
    That's cool. I too would be interested a further dive into these numbers. Which to be fair a "power spike" is kinda arbitrarily defined and there really is no one result we can draw from these graphs.

    My whole issue is that the fact that there were more spikes yet it was being argued otherwise. Not being able to get past that one point was a hang up for me.

    What I'm getting at, is your proper reply should have been, "kal, you're not crazy".

  11. #279
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Well my work is done here. I have planted the seed in some minds that may sprout and help them come to the realization that steroids were not as game-changing as we have been led to believe. Hopefully some people will investigate further and learn more about the subject. I know it is hard to believe that everything we have been told about steroids destroying the record books is false. At first glance it seems obvious that steroids caused more home runs. But once you look a bit deeper you begin to see a lot of other factors that contributed to increased scoring and home run hitting. Then you begin go to see that the history of steroid usage does not line up with the rates of scoring and home run hitting. Then it becomes pretty obvious that steroids were only a minor factor. I will leave it at that. I don't expect to change everyones' mind overnight. It takes awhile to digest.
    It is a logical fallacy to conclude from the fact that there was no significant, explainable (sans steroid use) increase in power or run production from 1995-2005 in MLB, that steroids do not increase an individual's ability to hit for power or his run production.

    As I stated before, in order to make any such correlation between steroid use and any numbers from 1995-2005, we have to assume that steroid use was dramatically more in that time period than any other by all of MLB. We simply have no proof of that. In fact, it probably isn't true.

    What we do know, what is indisputable, is that certain players took steroids, and their numbers in power and overall run production vastly increased, even during ages in which those normally decline.

    We also know that certain Olympic athletes took steroids and become better at their sports. We know this about weightlifters and body builders. We know this about football players as well. In fact, we know this about athletes from nearly every sport.

    And if you want even more proof, I have been taking steroids, per doctor's prescription, for over a decade, and will be taking them for the rest of my life. I also know dozens of other individuals in my similar health circumstances (organ transplant), who also have been taking steroids for years. All of us have gained between 25-50 pounds, in less than six months of taking the steroids, and those that work out have gained almost all of that in muscle (I'm am not one of them, unfortunately, lol). All of us became significantly stronger. I can only imagine what steroids would do for a professional athlete.

    You also mentioned that there is no proof that steroids helps in healing from injuries. I have no idea what the research on that says, but I do know that last year, I went into massive kidney failure, and risked losing my transplanted kidney. In the hospital, I was given what was called "the nuclear option," which was to flood my body with massive amounts of steroids. The normal daily dose for a serious injury is 50 mg a day. I was given 1200 mg a day for a week. It worked. It was brutal on my system, took six months for my body to recover from the steroids, but it saved my kidney, and brought it back to almost where it was before the failure.

    So forgive me if I am not convinced by your graphs, numbers and links to "experts." I can tell you from personal experience, that steroids did make me heal faster and better, and did make me stronger.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  13. #280
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Isn't comparing eras kind of an unlevel playing field? Other potential effects in the past were more widespread (juiced balls, mound changes, etc) where PED usage was not used by all, was used at different levels, etc.

  14. #281
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    There was a lot of discussion previously on scientific evidence of the benefits of HGH on baseball players. Here is an interesting conclusion from a scientific analysis of steroid usage, this from a physicist:

    Physics cannot tell us whether a particular home run was steroid-assisted, or even whether an extraordinary individual performance indicates the use of illicit means. But physics, combined with physiology, can constrain the extent of performance enhancement that could be attributed to the use of drugs. Basic mechanical principles, in combination with simple but plausible models, show that relatively modest increases in muscle mass, well within the range that can reasonably be expected from steroid use, can dramatically increase home run production. Specifically, a 10% increase in muscle mass can increase the fraction of balls put in play that result in home runs by 50% or more. This increase is comparable to the differences in home run rate between the most productive sluggers of the “steroid era” and those of earlier generations. These results certainly do not prove that recent performances are tainted, but they suggest that some suspicion is reasonable.
    http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu..._AJP_Jan08.pdf
    Last edited by edabbs44; 02-18-2013 at 06:59 PM.

  15. #282
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Adair and others have written extensively that steroids had very minimal effects on home runs. Steroids have not been shown to improve the healing process either, on the contrary steroids are damaging to health and are much more likely to cause injuries than to heal them.
    I am sorry, but this is simply false. The FDA has approved the use of various steroids because they assist in the healing process and/or strengthen the bodies ability to respond to certain threats. Please review the multiple steroids currently in the Physicians Desk Reference.

    Like all perscription drugs, however, if they are abused they can damage your health.

  16. #283
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    There was a lot of discussion previously on scientific evidence of the benefits of HGH on baseball players.
    Again, the correct conclusion is that there is a lack of scientific evidence for the benefits of HGH on baseball players.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  17. #284
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Again, the correct conclusion is that there is a lack of scientific evidence for the benefits of HGH on baseball players.
    I'm not sure that I said anything positive or negative about HGH here. But I also thought you said some different things earlier. Either way, HGH isn't the topic.

  18. #285
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    post #264
    Sorry, didn't see that.
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