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Thread: Ryan Braun going down?

  1. #136
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    If I were a PED Javert I'd actually hope Braun was innocent (as opposed to well-represented). Because here's the problem if he wasn't. The guy has been tested his whole career before and after his one positive hit. He crushed the ball before his one positive result and was awesome last year. So what did steroids do for him? It would seem like the answer is nothing.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  4. #137
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    If I were a PED Javert I'd actually hope Braun was innocent (as opposed to well-represented). Because here's the problem if he wasn't. The guy has been tested his whole career before and after his one positive hit. He crushed the ball before his one positive result and was awesome last year. So what did steroids do for him? It would seem like the answer is nothing.
    Ha and there is no conceivable way one can be juicing and still pass the occasional test is there? Some people are incredible in there ability to ignore this issue.

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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    You've had your say about how you feel about me several times now. I'm sure everyone is even less interested in that tangent than I am.

    Please put me on ignore and continue further metacommentary via PM.
    I have no issues to take up with you via PM. If you have some, please send them to me.

    I'm still interested though in hearing how testosterone levels jump out of thin air. Multiple posters have asked this question.

    Bum

    PS: As a rule, I put nobody on ignore. I have no problem in dealing with any posters. I tend to treat them similar to how they treat me.

  7. #139
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by alwaysawarrior View Post
    Ha and there is no conceivable way one can be juicing and still pass the occasional test is there? Some people are incredible in there ability to ignore this issue.
    The occasional test? How about a whole career of tests. And if Braun was able to beat tests his whole career then why would he fail the one in 2011?

    And if Braun has been able to beat the testing with no problem for six years (with that one exception), then what's the point of testing?

    Braun's a massive inconvenience for all you PED whisperers out there. My position isn't that he did or didn't do it. I don't care. He fought the law, he won. And he played the entire 2012 season supposedly clean and his performance didn't change. So if it's real important to you that Braun was guilty I'd caution you that it's a lot more convenient for you that he was a rare false positive. Otherwise your choices are Braun was guilty and it didn't matter, or that he's a master criminal.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  8. #140
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    The occasional test? How about a whole career of tests. And if Braun was able to beat tests his whole career then why would he fail the one in 2011?

    And if Braun has been able to beat the testing with no problem for six years (with that one exception), then what's the point of testing?

    Braun's a massive inconvenience for all you PED whisperers out there. My position isn't that he did or didn't do it. I don't care. He fought the law, he won. And he played the entire 2012 season supposedly clean and his performance didn't change. So if it's real important to you that Braun was guilty I'd caution you that it's a lot more convenient for you that he was a rare false positive. Otherwise your choices are Braun was guilty and it didn't matter, or that he's a master criminal.
    Lance Armstrong took tests. More than the occasional test, in fact.
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The fact that we don't have the actual report is vital.

    Apparently Braun's team took a clean sample and produced results similar to mlb's by mimicking the couriers actions and this factored into Das' decision.

    If Braun had a legit result demonstrating an isotopic signature consistent with endogenous steroids, then that is a different issue. MLB has not wanted to go there concerning an appeal though. We need to see Das' arguement and we need to see what he considered a fact and why.

    BTW, I have never argued that Braun is a clean player. I have argued that some in the media and in the ranks of fans have an intractable bias that prevents them from being objective about the issue of baseball and PEDs and a notion that 1995-2007 has somehow ruined baseball is largely based upon an inaccurate view of history.
    Lol. How do you know that Braun's "clean" sample factored into Das' decision if we don't have his actual report? That's why the whole "we don't have the actual report" argument is an absurd distraction. If that's the case, the we can't comment at all on anything related to this issue. If that's the case, then we can't say anything about what or why Das ruled the way we did.

    And this whole second issue, of Braun's name being in the books of Bosch is also a leaked story. Nothing has been officially released. We have not seen the actual records. All we have is what respectable reporters have said they have seen in those records. That's exactly what we have in the Das case. We have two reports, from two different reporters, who claimed they have read the actual report.

    If we need the actual reports officially released before we believe anything, then we would believe practically nothing these days.

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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    The occasional test? How about a whole career of tests. And if Braun was able to beat tests his whole career then why would he fail the one in 2011?

    And if Braun has been able to beat the testing with no problem for six years (with that one exception), then what's the point of testing?

    Braun's a massive inconvenience for all you PED whisperers out there. My position isn't that he did or didn't do it. I don't care. He fought the law, he won. And he played the entire 2012 season supposedly clean and his performance didn't change. So if it's real important to you that Braun was guilty I'd caution you that it's a lot more convenient for you that he was a rare false positive. Otherwise your choices are Braun was guilty and it didn't matter, or that he's a master criminal.
    So, do masking agents exist that the tests can't detect? Yes. Does MLB test for HGH? No. The assumption you are making is that MLB testing is foolproof. It's not even particularly good. Players have to make mistakes to get caught. Braun made a mistake and then got lucky with the technicality. IMHO.

    Bum

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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by wolfboy View Post
    Lance Armstrong took tests. More than the occasional test, in fact.
    Yep, we have testimony from literally dozens of athletes, cops, soldiers, and the others who get tested regularly that it's actually pretty tough to catch a person who is doping, absent constant, regular testing. Random testing is rather easy to beat. Getting caught by random testing really just means you got unlucky.

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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It's a pretty simple position- Shyam Das was convinced that the storage/handling called the results into question. If we ever get to see his report, we'll be in better position to argue the merit of his decision.
    Not sure this is a safe assumption.

    Forgive the length of this... but I decided to do some detailed research and I think I may have found something.

    I looked over the CBA and I think I may have found THE loophole. If I am correct this was a drafting error on the part of the MLB lawyers. Any cites to the Drug policy can be found at
    http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/pdf/jda.pdf


    8(B)(2)
    2. Challenges to the Proof of the Violation: The Player may challenge the initial showing by the Commissionerís Office that the result was "positive" or that it was obtained pursuant to a test authorized under the Program and was conducted in accordance with the Collection Procedures.
    If the Player alleges a deviation from the Collection Procedures, the
    Commissionerís Office will carry its burden (a) by demonstrating that there was no deviation; (b) by demonstrating that the deviation was authorized by the parties or by the IPA in an individual case (provided that the IPA acted within the authority delegated to him under the Program); or (c) by demonstrating that the deviation did not affect the accuracy or reliability of the test result.

    Do you see those words... "did not affect"... OUCH. They failed to put the key word "significantly" before the word "affect". The uncontroverted science says that any delay causes the sample to start to degrade, and the Montreal test procedures (agreed upon under paragraph 3E) state that any degradation less than 5% is insignificant. Thus, while a 1% degradation will not have a significant affect on the accuracy or reliability of a result, it will still have an effect. Read literally, if the accuracy of the result drops from 99.9999% to 99.9998% then MLB did not meet their burden under (c), above.

    Such a strict reading would probably not be considered reasonable by most and probably infuriated MLB... and that explains why MLB fired Shyman Das on May 21st when he made the same ruling in the "nearly identical" case of Eliezer Alfonzo. and then made an official public pronouncement that the challenge raised by Braun and Alfonzo would never be an issue again. Since MLB cannot control future facts, (mistakes happen)... the only thing they could be referring to is a matter of legal wording or interpretation.

    http://www.sportsandentertainmentlaw...ok.com/sports/
    and
    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...ap/index.html#

    After Das' ruling on the Alfonzo case, MLB and the Player's Union reached an "Agreement" (see cite above). Pursuant to that agreement, Alfonzo would not be suspended, BUT he was immediately dropped by Colorado. Read paragraph 7(M) of the drug policy. Under those circumstances, Colorado could NOT have dropped Alfonzo without the agreement of the Players Association/Union. Why did the the Union agree?

    MLB then made a public statement that it would not be an issue ever again. Why was MLB so certain that it would never be an issue again? It would have to be based on a change in legal interpretation, since no one can control future facts.

    My simple conspiracy theory is this.

    A. Das' ruling was based on the pure literal reading technicality I discussed above.
    B. Alfonzo had the same facts so decided to appeal after the Braun ruling.
    C. Das made the same ruling.
    D. MLB said that this was too much and wanted to renege on the agreement not to publish Das' Braun opinion.
    E. To protect one of their biggest stars, MLB and The Player's Association agreed to

    1) Fire Das (but MLB would take the public heat)
    2) Thenceforth interpret rule 8(B)(2) to include the word "significant."
    3) Throw Alfonzo under the bus.

    I believe this theory complies with every statment made by every party involved with the single exception of Braun's self-serving denial.

    Can anyone provide an equally plausible explanation given all the facts?
    If the Union felt that the Braun, and therefore also the Alfonzo tests were not reliable... why did they agree to allow Alfonzo to be cut in violation of the CBA?

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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayStubbs View Post
    Based on what we know, that's not accurate.

    According to the reports, Das's report specifically said that the results of the test were not called into question, because it never got that far. He dismissed the case because the carrier violated the instructions that existed in the CBA at the time. His report specifically said that it was not important whether this violation had any effect on the results of the test itself, all that mattered was that the rules set forth in the CBA were violated.

    The MLB drug policy states that "absent unusual circumstances, the specimens should be sent by FedEx to the laboratory on the same day they are collected." Das did not consider the store being closed, an "unusual circumstance," and thus, when the specimens were not sent out the same day via FedEx, the CBA was violated, end of story. It didn't matter what the currier did after that, no matter how carefully he handled the specimens, the CBA had already been violated, and the test results were now meaningless.

    I agree with Das, the CBA rules were violated, but only because they were poorly written with vague language, and did not proved proper instruction for the carrier in the case where the Fed Ex store was closed. Das was correct in his ruling, but in no way does his ruling exonerate Braun. His ruling merely pointed out the the CBA was poorly written and needed to be rewritten.
    JayStubbs:

    I started in the same place, but then found 8(B)(2)(c) that allows MLB to still suspend the player even if collection procedures are violated if MLB can show that the collection violation "...did not affect the accuracy or reliability of the results." See my other super long post about the can of worms i think this opened.

    I totally agree with your last sentence, however.

  15. #146
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    The occasional test? How about a whole career of tests. And if Braun was able to beat tests his whole career then why would he fail the one in 2011?

    And if Braun has been able to beat the testing with no problem for six years (with that one exception), then what's the point of testing?

    Braun's a massive inconvenience for all you PED whisperers out there. My position isn't that he did or didn't do it. I don't care. He fought the law, he won. And he played the entire 2012 season supposedly clean and his performance didn't change. So if it's real important to you that Braun was guilty I'd caution you that it's a lot more convenient for you that he was a rare false positive. Otherwise your choices are Braun was guilty and it didn't matter, or that he's a master criminal.
    Oddly enough... this may actually strengthen the case against Braun. According to one expert I read, incredibly high amounts of testosterone in tests normally occur if the player has recently injected the testosterone for the first time or for the first time in a long time.

    "Dr. Toth reports that testing for synthetic testosterone is very accurate. In order for there to have that much synthetic testosterone, anyone would have had to taken synthetic testosterone in 6-12 weeks before for that test.
    Dr. Toth said he had hard time buying the fact that a sample, all of a sudden test that high, unless Braun had somehow taken synthetic steroids closer to the playoffs, but not during the season at all."

    http://www.todaystmj4.com/news/local/140351733.html

    So Braun has natural talent that has served him well, both before and after the fateful test. But he has the horrible luck that the one time (or the first time in a long time) he feels he needs the extra boost... right before the playoffs... the first time he has ever done it.. he gets caught.

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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    The occasional test? How about a whole career of tests. And if Braun was able to beat tests his whole career then why would he fail the one in 2011?

    And if Braun has been able to beat the testing with no problem for six years (with that one exception), then what's the point of testing?

    Braun's a massive inconvenience for all you PED whisperers out there. My position isn't that he did or didn't do it. I don't care. He fought the law, he won. And he played the entire 2012 season supposedly clean and his performance didn't change. So if it's real important to you that Braun was guilty I'd caution you that it's a lot more convenient for you that he was a rare false positive. Otherwise your choices are Braun was guilty and it didn't matter, or that he's a master criminal.
    A career of baseball testing at this point is an occasional test. Do you think they are sticking needles in these guys arms after every game and doing extensive blood work? It has been proven that it isn't that hard to beat the tests. Feel free to keep sticking your head in the sand and believing whatever it is exactly that you are arguing.

  17. #148
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by wolfboy View Post
    Lance Armstrong took tests. More than the occasional test, in fact.
    Sure, and Armstrong had an entire team working in concert to do it, from doctors to managers to trainers to teammates. I'm not saying it can't be done, but for Braun to have done this he would have had to come into MLB using and done this largely by himself. And if he and his personal chemist are that brilliant, then how did they get caught in 2011?
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  18. #149
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    So, do masking agents exist that the tests can't detect? Yes. Does MLB test for HGH? No. The assumption you are making is that MLB testing is foolproof. It's not even particularly good. Players have to make mistakes to get caught. Braun made a mistake and then got lucky with the technicality. IMHO.

    Bum
    So he's a master criminal who slipped up that one time? He came into MLB dirty, has always been dirty and no one ever had a clue until that test?

    If that's the case, then I'm a big Ryan Braun fan. Apparently he's an evil genius.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  19. #150
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brisco View Post
    Oddly enough... this may actually strengthen the case against Braun. According to one expert I read, incredibly high amounts of testosterone in tests normally occur if the player has recently injected the testosterone for the first time or for the first time in a long time.

    ...

    So Braun has natural talent that has served him well, both before and after the fateful test. But he has the horrible luck that the one time (or the first time in a long time) he feels he needs the extra boost... right before the playoffs... the first time he has ever done it.. he gets caught.
    I'm not particularly interested in re-trying the Braun case. Say what you will about his legal strategy, it worked. And if your scenario is correct, then he used once, got caught, got lucky not to be punished for it and it ultimately made no difference. If that's the case then I've got no issue with Ryan Braun.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.


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