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Thread: Ryan Braun going down?

  1. #106
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    A 3:1 ratio of T to E is within normal ranges and Braun would have had no issues if his T:E had only been 3:1.
    It was 20:1, my bad, and 4:1 is the red flag. I did too much from the top of my head.

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  3. #107
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Do you see anyone else besides Will Carroll who said anything close to this?

  4. #108
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Since neither the arbitrator, nor the testing lab nor MLB nor Braun's team ever released any official reports about this case everything we think we know about this case is nothing more than hearsay and rumor. Every single article we have read is based on pure supposition and bits & pieces of information that may or may not be accurate. Anybody that is tossing out facts about this case is delusional. There are no facts. If anybody is convinced of anything one way or the other they are delusional.

    I don't know the truth of the matter and neither does anybody else who wasn't present at the appeal hearing.

    Obviously Shyam Das was convinced by Braun's defense team that he should be not be punished. They must have presented a very strong case. The arbitrators have seen and heard many, many cases and this is the only time a player has won an appeal. Obviously there was something different about this case. The arbitrator is not going to overturn a major case like this one unless there are very compelling reasons to do so. Until such time as the arbiter releases an official report we will not know what those compelling reasons were. But that won't stop some people from pretending they know.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 02-08-2013 at 02:28 AM.

  5. #109
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Major League Baseball has the toughest PEDs testing system of all the major professional sports leagues in the USA. It is harder for an athlete to get away with abuse of steroids and HGH in baseball than in any other major sport. Baseball has finally gotten serious about getting rid of PEDs. Of course they are at least 25 years too late, but now they are finally ahead of all the other sports when it comes to frequent and comprehensive testing as well as the toughest penalties for PED usage as well as drugs of abuse. Hopefully this new effort will finally clean up the sport. Up until the last few years players could cheat with impunity and almost zero chance of getting busted. Now they are suspending several players per year. With the new HGH testing in 2013 we may see another spike in suspensions.

    Baseball needs to get rid of PED usage and it is apparent they are finally on the right track. I am sure the system is not perfect and some cheaters may still not get busted, but baseball has made major strides in fighting PEDs.

    To those of you who still believe that PEDs were the reason scoring was up in the 1990's and were the reason for increased home run hitting I recommend reading Extra Innings: More Baseball Beyond the Numbers published by Baseball Prospectus. It contains one of many studies that have shown that PEDs had a negligible effect on run scoring and home run hitting even during the height of the steroid era. There are quite a few factors that explain the increased offense much more satisfactorily. PEDs usage simply does not correlate well at all with scoring or power levels. If you think PEDs had a major impact on the game you may have missed some much more sweeping changes that changed the game to a much higher degree than PEDs. PEDs did not ruin the game or destroy the record books. PEDs are bad for baseball and need to be gotten rid of, but their effect has been grossly overstated.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 02-08-2013 at 02:18 AM.

  6. #110
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    DP

  7. #111
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    Exactly, I was appalled that Will Carroll, who I like a lot, went on Clubhouse Confidential today and said that Braun's explanation is plausible.

    If you're paying $500/hour attorneys to handle your appeal, you don't hire a drug dealer to work as your retained expert/consultant. You hire a freaking M.D.
    One of Braun's attorneys confirmed that his defense team did in fact hire Bosch as one of many consultants early in the exploratory phase of their preparation. He said Bosch's input was worthless and so the defense team moved forward without using Bosch as an expert witness.

    Essentially, Braun's team screened several people to see if they were qualified to be expert witnesses for the defense. Bosch was one of the candidates and he was deemed not worthy.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 02-08-2013 at 02:33 AM.

  8. #112
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Since neither the arbitrator, nor the testing lab nor MLB nor Braun's team ever released any official reports about this case everything we think we know about this case is nothing more than hearsay and rumor. Every single article we have read is based on pure supposition and bits & pieces of information that may or may not be accurate. Anybody that is tossing out facts about this case is delusional. There are no facts. If anybody is convinced of anything one way or the other they are delusional.

    I don't know the truth of the matter and neither does anybody else who wasn't present at the appeal hearing.

    Obviously Shyam Das was convinced by Braun's defense team that he should be not be punished. They must have presented a very strong case. The arbitrators have seen and heard many, many cases and this is the only time a player has won an appeal. Obviously there was something different about this case. The arbitrator is not going to overturn a major case like this one unless there are very compelling reasons to do so. Until such time as the arbiter releases an official report we will not know what those compelling reasons were. But that won't stop some people from pretending they know.
    So you are saying it's a lie or possibly made up that he tested positive for synthetic testosterone. Why wouldn't Braun or his lawyers want to facts to be correct? Instead they let possibly libelous statements go with no response?

    You can state any form of information is incorrect. He could have lied. He could have bribed the arbitrators. The information given to the arbitrators could all be lies. Therefore they did not have the correct info either. The only way we will find out is if he are able to scan Ryan Braun's thoughts.

    In other words, media investigations into the facts are fairly concrete. Yes, they can be wrong (along with the "facts" given to an arbiter), but the vast majority of the time are correct. Especially if a person involved would be hurt by the info yet doesn't dispute it, as in this case. If your defense for not coming up with your own belief on this is "we don't have all the facts" then I am afraid you will never have a belief on anything. Heck, no one could make a decision on anything since most things can be put in some form of doubt.

    So yes, we do have facts to the best of our knowledge. Dismissing it is rather poor when trying to come to a conclusion about what happened.

    The simple facts are we were told by media reports that the sample had synthetic testosterone. If you want to not believe that, go right ahead. Yet most people will accept that since it was reported through reputable sources and not refuted by Braun. Good enough for me. If it's not for you, well, you can believe what you want. Yet the information we do have certainly paints a poor picture for Braun, and he has never denied them.

    edit: oh, and the reason for him not being punished has nothing to do with him actually being guilty of using PED's. So that decision in no way determines if he actually used PED's, and we are left to make our own decision. In fact, I agree with the decision on the facts given and I think he used PED's. From what is known, the reason he was not punished is the sample protocol was not fully followed, not that is wasn't his sample, not that it was tampered with, and not that he tested positive.
    Last edited by scott91575; 02-08-2013 at 02:56 AM.

  9. #113
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by scott91575 View Post
    So you are saying it's a lie or possibly made up that he tested positive for synthetic testosterone. Why wouldn't Braun or his lawyers want to facts to be correct? Instead they let possibly libelous statements go with no response?

    You can state any form of information is incorrect. He could have lied. He could have bribed the arbitrators. The information given to the arbitrators could all be lies. Therefore they did not have the correct info either. The only way we will find out is if he are able to scan Ryan Braun's thoughts.

    In other words, media investigations into the facts are fairly concrete. Yes, they can be wrong (along with the "facts" given to an arbiter), but the vast majority of the time are correct. Especially if a person involved would be hurt by the info yet doesn't dispute it, as in this case. If your defense for not coming up with your own belief on this is "we don't have all the facts" then I am afraid you will never have a belief on anything. Heck, no one could make a decision on anything since most things can be put in some form of doubt.

    So yes, we do have facts to the best of our knowledge. Dismissing it is rather poor when trying to come to a conclusion about what happened.

    The simple facts are we were told by media reports that the sample had synthetic testosterone. If you want to not believe that, go right ahead. Yet most people will accept that since it was reported through reputable sources and not refuted by Braun. Good enough for me. If it's not for you, well, you can believe what you want. Yet the information we do have certainly paints a poor picture for Braun, and he has never denied them.

    edit: oh, and the reason for him not being punished has nothing to do with him actually being guilty of using PED's. So that decision in no way determines if he actually used PED's, and we are left to make our own decision. In fact, I agree with the decision on the facts given and I think he used PED's. From what is known, the reason he was not punished is the sample protocol was not fully followed, not that is wasn't his sample, not that it was tampered with, and not that he tested positive.
    We only know a tiny fraction of the whole story. I think you may be focusing on only a very small sub-set of questionable "facts" and overlooking some evidence to the contrary.

    By the way, Braun has in fact denied taking the PEDs. He does dispute the results of the test. He has refuted the reports. It is incorrect to say he has not.

    Secondly, you don't know the reason(s) why Braun's suspension was overturned. All we know is Braun used the violation of the sample handling protocol as the technicality he needed to earn an appeal hearing.

    As has been stated before, a player cannot appeal the result of the test according to the collective bargaining agreement. That was not an option for him. He used the mishandling of the samples as the technicality he needed to earn a hearing in front of an independent arbiter (who had ruled against the players in all previous cases). Braun's defense team must have presented a very persuasive argument that the penalty was not deserved. I don't think an experienced arbiter like Shyam Das is going to pardon an obviously guilty party based on a minor technicality. There was clearly a very strong and compelling case that Braun should not be punished. I don't think you should just offhandedly dismiss that possibility.

    What do you make of the reports that the test result was insanely high for synthetic testosterone? The rumored test result was said to be twice as high as any other sample ever tested. That alone calls the test and/or the sample into question. Seems strange to think that Braun took twice as much PED as anybody else ever did yet showed no physical, emotional or behavioral effects. Combine that with the admittedly poor handling of the sample plus whatever other evidence and testimony were presented at the hearing and an acquital doesn't seem far-fetched. I trust an experienced arbiter like Shyam Das to make a wise decision. I am sure he had very good reasons for ruling in the player's favor for the first time ever.

    I remain very suspicious of Ryan Braun. He very well could be a PEDs user. The truth remains to be seen. If the time comes when he is actually proven guilty then I support a severe punishment.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 02-08-2013 at 03:32 AM.

  10. #114
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    By the way, Braun has in fact denied taking the PEDs. He does dispute the results of the test. He has refuted the reports. It is incorrect to say he has not.
    Nonresponsive.

    Scott's point is that no one on Braun's defense team has said "the sample did not include synthetic testosterone."

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    To those of you who still believe that PEDs were the reason scoring was up in the 1990's and were the reason for increased home run hitting I recommend reading Extra Innings: More Baseball Beyond the Numbers published by Baseball Prospectus.
    I subscribe to Baseball Prospectus, I've bought any number of their annuals, I love their work. But the notion that we should rely on the Three True Outcomes/Billy Beane fanclub/Free Erubiel Durazo/Barry Bonds Apologia Central crowd for the definitive word on PEDs is comedy.

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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    You're missing my point....what is it exactly that he tested positive for?
    Scott has said (1) a T:E ratio of 20:1 and (2) exogenous testosterone. Do you disagree? Do you have an explanation for the exogenous testosterone result?

    Is the jury of jojo returning a verdict of "not guilty" or, in the Scottish form, "not proven"?

  13. #116
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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    These threads full of argumentative posts that are completely unsourced make my head hurt.
    If MLB hasn't actually released all of the details about his case, then all we can do is speculate.
    I'm not going to lie; I'm a petty, bitter, man who doesn't like the Brewers so I will happily assume given the circumstances that he's dirty. He might not be, but there's enough evidence for me to convict him in my mind. Is that me being fair? Probably not, but then again, I'm a cynic.
    I just hope I'm not faced with the prospect of a Reds player being cast into a similar predicament, because I'd imagine a lot of us will find out how hypocritical we are willing to be.
    I may not be fast, but I sure am slow.

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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    What do you make of the reports that the test result was insanely high for synthetic testosterone? The rumored test result was said to be twice as high as any other sample ever tested. That alone calls the test and/or the sample into question. Seems strange to think that Braun took twice as much PED as anybody else ever did yet showed no physical, emotional or behavioral effects. Combine that with the admittedly poor handling of the sample plus whatever other evidence and testimony were presented at the hearing and an acquital doesn't seem far-fetched. I trust an experienced arbiter like Shyam Das to make a wise decision. I am sure he had very good reasons for ruling in the player's favor for the first time ever.

    I remain very suspicious of Ryan Braun. He very well could be a PEDs user. The truth remains to be seen. If the time comes when he is actually proven guilty then I support a severe punishment.

    Braun and his attorneys have said that his ratio was "three times higher" than had ever been recorded, noting that in itself was a sign that there was something wrong with the test.

    It's possible that no one has ever tested that high in baseball, but Don Catlin, the former director for the Olympic lab at UCLA who is considered the father of performance-enhancing drug testing, said he has seen cases that exceeded 100-to-1. A 20-to-1 ratio, he and others said, is not unusual in a positive test.
    http://m.espn.go.com/wireless/story?storyId=7611761

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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    One of Braun's attorneys confirmed that his defense team did in fact hire Bosch as one of many consultants early in the exploratory phase of their preparation. He said Bosch's input was worthless and so the defense team moved forward without using Bosch as an expert witness.

    Essentially, Braun's team screened several people to see if they were qualified to be expert witnesses for the defense. Bosch was one of the candidates and he was deemed not worthy.
    Bosch charges $20-30k, at minimum, to be screened? Nice line of work.

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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by backbencher View Post
    Scott has said (1) a T:E ratio of 20:1 and (2) exogenous testosterone. Do you disagree? Do you have an explanation for the exogenous testosterone result?

    Is the jury of jojo returning a verdict of "not guilty" or, in the Scottish form, "not proven"?
    It's a pretty simple position- Shyam Das was convinced that the storage/handling called the results into question. If we ever get to see his report, we'll be in better position to argue the merit of his decision.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Ryan Braun going down?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Bosch charges $20-30k, at minimum, to be screened? Nice line of work.
    Consulting can be extremely lucrative.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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