Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 24

Thread: Concerns for Cueto

  1. #1
    Redleger13
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    84

    Concerns for Cueto

    Down the backstretch of last season I saw a horrifying trend in Cueto. His ERA inflated a bit, but that's not the concern. His two seam was breaking far too quickly out of his hand. If he is running it up to 95 or not, a telegraphed fastball has danger written all over it. A major league hitter should immediately pick up on the seam, anticipate the break and take it for a ride. The scariest part of this is the fact it looks like a great pitch to the pitcher. I fear that Cueto has had an offseason of bullpens where he falls in love with watching his two seams break across the zone and never facing a batter that can punish him for it.

    Any thoughts?
    Mr. Redlegs - 2012

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member klw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    New England
    Posts
    6,461

    Re: Concerns for Cueto

    If you look at his game logs and splits, Cueto typically has faded a bit down the stretch each year. It seems to be getting later and not as severe each year.
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ear=Career&t=p
    Code:
    Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
    April	6	5	.545	3.63	20	20	0	0	0	0	119.0	111	51	48	13	31	2	92	10	2	4	497	1.193	7.0	2.97
    May	13	9	.591	2.98	27	27	0	3	1	0	175.0	153	66	58	19	54	4	137	6	1	2	720	1.183	7.0	2.54
    June	16	6	.727	2.96	27	27	0	1	0	0	176.1	153	65	58	16	53	0	125	10	0	5	714	1.168	6.4	2.36
    July	10	9	.526	3.90	27	27	0	2	1	0	164.0	172	81	71	13	60	2	122	10	2	2	721	1.415	6.7	2.03
    August	10	8	.556	3.75	24	24	0	0	0	0	136.2	122	60	57	18	39	0	130	15	1	3	577	1.178	8.6	3.33
    Se/Oct	5	9	.357	4.53	24	24	0	0	0	0	133.0	148	71	67	16	44	3	96	8	1	5	579	1.444	6.5	2.18
    Last edited by klw; 02-07-2013 at 02:03 PM.

  4. #3
    Redleger13
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    84

    Re: Concerns for Cueto

    And that progression is expected for a young guy like Johnny. Good graph but its not exactly relevant to what I said other than the part about his ERA slightly inflating.
    Mr. Redlegs - 2012

  5. #4
    Member Nasty_Boy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    1st Place... Finally
    Posts
    1,191

    Re: Concerns for Cueto

    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Luke View Post
    Down the backstretch of last season I saw a horrifying trend in Cueto. His ERA inflated a bit, but that's not the concern. His two seam was breaking far too quickly out of his hand. If he is running it up to 95 or not, a telegraphed fastball has danger written all over it. A major league hitter should immediately pick up on the seam, anticipate the break and take it for a ride. The scariest part of this is the fact it looks like a great pitch to the pitcher. I fear that Cueto has had an offseason of bullpens where he falls in love with watching his two seams break across the zone and never facing a batter that can punish him for it.

    Any thoughts?
    Yea, I have a few thoughts... First is this your observation? Some of what you are saying about hitting and recognizing the two seam isn't in line with what you see at the plate. What does pitch f/x and other sites have to say about the effectiveness of the pitch? Basically, everything you said is bunk IMO... Kind of like the Votto thread. I think if Cueto is in shape and healthy, then his two seam isn't going to be a problem. If something doesn't look right with it then Price will fix it in Goodyear. Guessing about his bullpen sessions is pretty far out there.
    I know a lot of people are talking about his on-base percentage (.308 in 2008), but I like to think more in terms of him his in-scoring position percentage. - Our Beloved Manager

  6. #5
    Redleger13
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    84

    Re: Concerns for Cueto

    Quote Originally Posted by Nasty_Boy View Post
    Yea, I have a few thoughts... First is this your observation? Some of what you are saying about hitting and recognizing the two seam isn't in line with what you see at the plate. What does pitch f/x and other sites have to say about the effectiveness of the pitch? Basically, everything you said is bunk IMO... Kind of like the Votto thread. I think if Cueto is in shape and healthy, then his two seam isn't going to be a problem. If something doesn't look right with it then Price will fix it in Goodyear. Guessing about his bullpen sessions is pretty far out there.
    It's not a matter of health or mechanics or being in shape, its the pitch breaking too quickly out of his hand and therefor being detectable to the hitter. And remember, I'm talking about late in the season when he had a few rough outings. And the bullpen thing wasn't an assumption I was just throwing it out there. It's really not terribly far fetched though.
    Mr. Redlegs - 2012

  7. #6
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Brownsburg, Indiana
    Posts
    15,268

    Re: Concerns for Cueto

    And it begins...........
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
    Fame is man given: be thankful.
    Conceit is self given: be careful.

    John Wooden

  8. #7
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Carmel, IN
    Posts
    2,224

    Re: Concerns for Cueto

    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Luke View Post
    It's not a matter of health or mechanics or being in shape, its the pitch breaking too quickly out of his hand and therefor being detectable to the hitter.
    I have a feeling if this is really an issue, Bryan Price will have it figured out in Spring Training.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

  9. #8
    Member smixsell's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    San Jose
    Posts
    1,169

    Re: Concerns for Cueto

    I did not notice JC's "2-seam fastball beaking (?) too soon out of his hand." Not concerned at all about it.

    I do have some minor concerns about him falling in love with his fastball or him telegraphing his change, both of which have been long term problems for him and did happen during short stretches last year. However, he has made great strides in conquering both problems and the trend is definitely positive in both areas, so I'm not too concerned with either.

    My only real concerns are his health and that he keeps his head on straight as he continues to get more and more recognition for his rapidly growing excellence.

  10. #9
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,451

    Re: Concerns for Cueto

    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Luke View Post
    It's not a matter of health or mechanics or being in shape, its the pitch breaking too quickly out of his hand and therefor being detectable to the hitter. And remember, I'm talking about late in the season when he had a few rough outings. And the bullpen thing wasn't an assumption I was just throwing it out there. It's really not terribly far fetched though.
    From BrooksBaseball.net
    Code:
    	Pitch 	Count 	Freq 	Velo  	pfx HMov 	pfx VMov 	
    April	SI 	165	32%	92.32	-9.36	5.85	
    Sep	SI 	109	20%	93.58	-8.23	6.46
    He threw his sinker less often in September than in April. It had just over an inch less run and about half an inch more rise. The pitch however was 1.3 MPH faster.

  11. #10
    Redleger13
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    84

    Re: Concerns for Cueto

    Quote Originally Posted by CySeymour View Post
    I have a feeling if this is really an issue, Bryan Price will have it figured out in Spring Training.
    I figured that as well but you can't know all until spring training kicks up.
    Mr. Redlegs - 2012

  12. #11
    Redleger13
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    84

    Re: Concerns for Cueto

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    From BrooksBaseball.net
    Code:
    	Pitch 	Count 	Freq 	Velo  	pfx HMov 	pfx VMov 	
    April	SI 	165	32%	92.32	-9.36	5.85	
    Sep	SI 	109	20%	93.58	-8.23	6.46
    He threw his sinker less often in September than in April. It had just over an inch less run and about half an inch more rise. The pitch however was 1.3 MPH faster.
    Its sinking less and breaking earlier. So, I believe my observation was correct. Great data. Thanks.
    Mr. Redlegs - 2012

  13. #12
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,451

    Re: Concerns for Cueto

    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Luke View Post
    Its sinking less and breaking earlier. So, I believe my observation was correct. Great data. Thanks.
    That data doesn't suggest it is breaking earlier at all, just that it is breaking less. However, you probably could find out if it was indeed breaking earlier at BrooksBaseball.net if you wanted to play around with his player card enough.

  14. #13
    Redleger13
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    84

    Re: Concerns for Cueto

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    That data doesn't suggest it is breaking earlier at all, just that it is breaking less. However, you probably could find out if it was indeed breaking earlier at BrooksBaseball.net if you wanted to play around with his player card enough.
    I know. I would put money on that being a portion of the reason.
    Mr. Redlegs - 2012

  15. #14
    Member smixsell's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    San Jose
    Posts
    1,169

    Re: Concerns for Cueto

    He was getting a little "velocity drunk" late lat season (as he has tended to do throughout his career, but hs improved on a lot in the last 2 years) and was throwing his sinker (2-seamer) a little too hard. Throw it too hard and it sinks less and is easier to hit. Pretty simple stuff really.

    Still don't know where you get your "breaking too early" observation from.

    PS great data Doug, I'm going to bookmark that website.

  16. #15
    Salukifan2
    Guest

    Re: Concerns for Cueto

    Quote Originally Posted by smixsell View Post
    He was getting a little "velocity drunk" late last season
    Cuetoholic

  17. Likes:

    *BaseClogger* (02-07-2013), thatcoolguy_22 (02-07-2013)


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25