The 2013 Bullpen

[UPRedsFan]

Does anyone else have that uneasy feeling about this year's pen?
Assuming Chapman is a starter for the majority of the year, I'm not feeling good about the pen for the first time in several years.

Broxton - Seemed shaky at times. Can he be dependable?
Marshall - Dependable as always
Hoover - solid numbers but not much experience?
Lecure - solid but is he an 8th inning guy?
Ondrusek - highest WHIP on the staff last year (1.5)
Arredondo - too many walks - (3rd highest WHIP 1.38)
Simon - 2nd highest WHIP on the staff (1.43)
Masset - may never be reliable again
Parra - Maybe as a Loogy?

Maybe Chapman goes back to closing in the playoffs. Otherwise this doesn't look like a playoff caliber pen to me.

[traderumor]

I'd say it has a decent foundation. Most of those arms were responsible for being one of the best and deepest pens in baseball last year. Sure, removing Chapman and replacing Broxton is a step down, but how far? Bullpens often evolve with surprises, year to year volatility of relievers, late spring deals, surprise signings....

[RedEye]

I'm pretty happy with the quartet of Broxton, Marshall, LeCure and Hoover. That's a good foundation IMO. I have less confidence in Arredondo and Simon, though I think they can be solid contributors. Ondrusek makes my stomach upset every time he comes in the game -- don't understand why he was such a priority to sign this year. I'm not counting on Masset or Parra, though either could end up valuable if there are injuries. I think there's also a possibility that someone like Cingrani could fill in as well.

[Superdude]

Broxton will be another year off of injury and came on strong at the end. He should be fine IMO. If Lecure pitches like he has been, I think he'll move into a bigger role and hopefully Hoover takes a step forward and does the same. It's a step down, but I think it'll work out fine.

[Tom Servo]

Thought this was interesting:

Nick Masset (shoulder) admits that he's had some "small setbacks" in his recovery from shoulder surgery and is "a long ways away" from throwing off a mound.
Masset underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder in September and was supposed to be ready to go for spring training, but that's obviously not the case. "In the beginning, it doesn’t always go as smooth as silk," he said. "I’ve had some small setbacks." Masset is currently throwing from 90 feet three days a week and will have to progress to throwing every day before he'll be allowed to throw from the bump.

This is pretty much what I figured in the offseason while some others had Masset "locked in" to their bullpen predictions.

[herbdizzle]

I like the Reds bullpen just fine even without Chapman closing. Broxton is an All-Star caliber closer & Marshall is the most efficient 7th & 8th inning lefty from the last 3 years. JJ Hoover is a very dynamic arm & Sam Lecure gets better every year. Add to that you have a quartet of major league seasoned arms in Ondrusek, Parra, Arredondo, & Simon and that doesn't even count the leftover from Chapman/Leake. We've got an abundance of arms and proven ones at that with solid depth. It would take a lot of bad luck, injuries, and ineffectiveness for the pen to not perform at a winning level.

[Degenerate39]

If worse comes to worse they can make a trade for a closer if need be.

[Kc61]

There are two things a good bullpen needs. First, quality in the late innings. Second, depth and balance.

The Reds have the depth and balance. They have quite a few major league caliber righties and lefties, and Arredondo a righty who has been good against lefties. They have long men and short men.

The question I see is the late inning quality if Chapman is a starter.

Last year, it was Arredondo, Marshall, and Chapman in the late innings. Arredondo faultered, but Broxton, in essence, replaced him. That was the main group.

This year, without Chapman, there is Broxton and Marshall for the late innings. Arredondo now is a question mark IMO. Hoover has the arm, but will he even be on the squad? Lecure might get a promotion to late inning duty. I don't know who else qualifies for late inning duty.

The question is how effective such a late inning group will be. How good a closer is Brox at this stage. Marshall is solid, but who is his righty counterpart as a set up man?

If Hoover does well, this would be a big relief (no pun intended). I can also see Lecure getting late inning duty, he is effective. Not sure about Arredondo after last year's late season woes.

We'll find out, but Chappy's move to the rotation could have a major impact on the effectiveness of the bullpen, particularly in the late innings.

[MoneyInTheBank]

If worse comes to worse they can make a trade for a closer if need be.

This is the key. Bullpen arms are ALWAYS available at the deadline. The 'pen appears to be fine, but if we are plagued by injuries or ineffectiveness or just want more firepower, it can always get a shot in the arm at the deadline

[Kc61]

Over the years on RedsZone I've always emphasized the importance of a high caliber pen. I've also emphasized that good bullpens don't grow on trees, they don't come out of the woodwork.

The Reds are taking a calculated risk this season. After finding a lights out closer, they now will have Broxton in that spot. He is a fine pitcher, but whether he can effectively close at this stage is a question mark.

They also don't have a righty set up man. By moving Broxton to the ninth, obviously, he isn't available for the seventh or eighth. Whether any other righty on the team is ready to be effective in those late inning is unclear.

Hoover is a potential answer, but the Reds don't seem set on him -- some think he won't even make the squad.

If Chapman becomes the next Randy Johnson, or just a very good starting pitcher, it will prove to be a worthwhile experiment.

But the poster who began this thread is on to something.

Perhaps things will fall into place, particularly if Broxton is effective, but it's not a given by any means.

[jmac]

I really think Hoover is ready to step up as far as 7th or even 8th inning.
Without Chapman in the 9th, I would feel more comfortable with a Marshall/Broxton pairing rather than total Broxton.
If Ryan Howard is coming up in the 9th and Reds up a run, bring in Marshall.
Of course, Dusty is a big "number saves" guy so I am sure he wouldnt go for it.
Plus...one of the lefties would have to step up to free Marshall as well.

[Gallen5862]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players...0/clay-hensley

Hensley signs with Reds: The Reds signed relief pitcher Clay Hensley to a minor league contract with a spring training invite, reports MLB.com Monday. Hensley made 60 appearances out of the bullpen with the Giants last season but did not pitch in the postseason.
(Updated 2/11/13)
Fantasy Analysis
The 33-year-old Hensley went 4-5 with a 4.62 ERA last year with 42 strikeouts over 50 2/3 innings. He recorded three saves and has 10 for his career. That said, he'll likely be used in middle relief with the Reds, if he makes the major league roster, and has low-end Fantasy value in all formats.

[Red Swagger]

Not including Chapman, we have great depth and talent in the bullpen.

Broxton
Marshall
Hoover
LeCure
Arredondo
Simon
Ondrusek
Parra
Masset- starts 2013 on the DL

On 40 man:

Ravin
Partch
Lotzkar- Prob will be moved into bullpen
C Contreras

In AAA:

K Whelan
C Hensley
Judy
W De La Rosa
Christiani
R Dennick
J Stevens

Up and coming prospects: (Will reach AAA in 2013)

D Hayes
J Freeman

Other:

Villarreal- I could see a "LeCure" type career
C Rogers

[wheels]

I like Josh Judy as something of an "out of nowhere" guy.

[mth123]

Hoover needs to be that third late inning guy to go with Broxton and Marshall, but there are an awful lot of vets on big league deals and I could really see the reds leaving Hoover off the roster completely.

I'd really like to see the Reds deal off some of this great "depth." Having 5 or 6 guys capable of being the 11th or 12th man could be depth. OTOH, having more than 3 of them on the pitching staff would also qualify as a disaster in the making. Simon, Arredondo, Ondrusek, Lecure, Parra, Masset...having more than 2 of them means there is a hole in the middle to late innings. This pen may have 5 of them.

I'd keep Leake/Chapman in one spot. Marshall and Broxton would take two others. The rest would be Lecure, Parra, Hoover and Arredondo (and I'd think long and hard about using Cingrani instead of Arredondo). Guys like Hensley, Galarragga, Ravin, Villareal, and Cingrani seem capable of being the 12th man. I'd be looking to move at least one of Ondrusek or Simon later in the spring if everyone proves healthy. I wouldn't worry about the return, I'd just want to clear the path for better guys who may come along. (I'd move both for a bag of balls).