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Thread: BP's PECOTA Projections Released

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    BP's PECOTA Projections Released

    BP just released this year's PECOTA projections: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=19602

    According to their team depth charts, they have the Reds down for 92-70, tied for the 2nd best record in MLB with the Yankees and Tigers. The Dodgers come in #1 at 93-69.

    The Cards come in 2nd in the NL Central as just 84-78.

    I found the visual depth chart a really cool way to quickly compare teams.

    When I put their mean projections in to my projection spreadsheet, I came out with 89 wins.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...0E&usp=sharing

    Here are some fun comps that I noticed:

    Devin Mesoraco: Matt Wieters, Joe Torre & Miguel Montero
    Joey Votto: Norm Cash, Miggy Cabrera & Mark Teixeira
    Todd Frazier: Chase Headley
    Jack Hannahan: Brook Jacoby
    Jay Bruce: Frank Robinson (Jay is an old 26...)

    Mat Latos: Jered Weaver & Felix Herandnez
    Homer Bailey: Matt Garza (Cueto also got a Garza comp)
    Aroldis Chapman: Herb Score
    Sean Marshall: Ryan Madson
    Tony Cingrani: Briad Matusz & Scott Kazmir
    Manny Parra: Casey Fossum & Steve Carlton

    Anyways... enjoy!
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  4. #2
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: BP's PECOTA Projections Released

    So Jack Hannahan will become the Reds hitting coach who is constantly called onto resign by frustrated fans?

    Thanks, good stuff.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  6. #3
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: BP's PECOTA Projections Released

    Doesn't look good for Cingrani.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  7. #4
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: BP's PECOTA Projections Released

    Where can I go to bet the over for Jay Bruce on his PECOTA projections?

    PECOTA, ZIPS and Bill James are projecting a bit of a breakout season for Mes. And let's hope the James projections are generally right, because that would be a mildly awesome team.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  8. #5
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: BP's PECOTA Projections Released

    Jay Bruce is a little bit scattered in these things.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  9. #6
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: BP's PECOTA Projections Released

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Doesn't look good for Cingrani.
    Yeah, but if Manny Parra becomes Steve Carlton, we can print the WS banners now.

    Carlton, King Felix, and a pair of Garzas in the rotation.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #7
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: BP's PECOTA Projections Released

    Pecota is a lot of fun, but taking it literally is dangerous. There is nothing in Todd Frazier's background to suggest he'll ever have a year like Headley had in 2012 or that he has a future like Headley will probably have. Headley was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2012; was a top 5 MLB 3rd baseman in 2011 (look at the road numbers and park effect). Frazier was a great stopgap in 2012 and a nice flexible piece on a World Championship contender.

    Their pedigrees are nothing alike. Headley's career minor league line is almost exactly the magical .300/.400/.500 over 1663 plate appearances, almost all of which were completed before the age of 24. That's a thing of beauty. By contrast, Frazier amassed more than 1000 plate appearance at AAA alone, almost all of them AFTER he turned 24. His line at AAA: .261/.335/.453. Boo!

    I'm totally behind Frazier as our future at third base, just like I was behind Chris Sabo, Ray Knight, Chris Stynes, and other scrappy players of their ilk. But assuming there were really a legitimate chance to land Headley in trade for a package in which the best player the Reds would have to give up would be Todd Frazier, the Reds would be out of their minds not to make that trade.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison....8&players=4720
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

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    Re: BP's PECOTA Projections Released

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    I'm totally behind Frazier as our future at third base, just like I was behind Chris Sabo, Ray Knight, Chris Stynes, and other scrappy players of their ilk. But assuming there were really a legitimate chance to land Headley in trade for a package in which the best player the Reds would have to give up would be Todd Frazier, the Reds would be out of their minds not to make that trade.
    Out of their minds until the 2014 season, when they have no thirdbaseman.

    The Reds are not in the position to trade much needed pieces for as one year rental.

    Notice when they traded for Latos, he was under team control for 4 years and they gave up pieces that were covered elsewhere.

    When they traded for Marshall, they knew they could afford to resign him, and gave up pieces that were covered elsewhere.

    When the traded for Choo they knew it was a one year rental, but have Hamilton available and groomerd to play the OF in 2014. And Hamilton would likley have to go to get Hensley.

    Reds have carefully planned their roster around every trade they have made. They won't deviate this plan to obtain Hensley and create huge future holes for a one year rental.

  13. #9
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: BP's PECOTA Projections Released

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    Their pedigrees are nothing alike. Headley's career minor league line is almost exactly the magical .300/.400/.500 over 1663 plate appearances, almost all of which were completed before the age of 24. That's a thing of beauty. By contrast, Frazier amassed more than 1000 plate appearance at AAA alone, almost all of them AFTER he turned 24. His line at AAA: .261/.335/.453. Boo!
    Chase Headley played in the California League, Texas League and Pacific Coast League in the Minors. They are the three most hitter friendly leagues you can think of.

    Todd Frazier played in the Florida State League, which is like playing in Petco every night, the Southern League, which is about neutral and the International League (and LSF) which are pitcher friendly.

    So overall, Headley minor league numbers were mostly built in incredibly hitting friendly environments, while Frazier's were mostly built in pitching friendly environments, one of which is the worst in the minor leagues for hitters to play in.

    Of course, with that all said, I don't think Todd Frazier is going to turn into Chase Headley.


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