I'm not worried about Stubbs at all - he is gone.
I'm not worried about Stubbs at all - he is gone.
Bring on 2018! #%?*!
Totally agreed. Latos had problems with that last season, and it's been a constant problem for Homer over the years. One bloop, one infield single, and boom, three run homer. While on the other hand, a guy like Johnny Cueto seemingly improves in these situations (I don't have any evidence to prove this, just an observation from watching).
Among all NL qualifying Center Fielders, Stubb as ranked 3rd last in Range Factor in 2012
Range Factor = (Put-outs+assists/innings). I think this could be telling that his speed,while fast , didn't always translate into outs.
Meanwhile , Jay B ranked 7 out of 17 RF's in the same category, so despiute not having top speed, outs can be had.
Bring on 2018! #%?*!
This thread seems to have side tracked to a debate on the overall value of Stubbs or Stubbs v. Choo. I am very happy to have Choo on the team this year.
A few things that I believe are true that many may disagree with:
1. Most players believe their eyes more than the statistics. Even today, I believe most reject sabrmetrics as the best method to evaluate a player.
2. Except in blowouts, pitchers focus much more on getting outs and than on how many runs were or were not scored by their team.
3. If my eyes told me I had a great CF behind me (and a great SS/2B combo), I would pitch much more aggressively to all but a handful of true power hitters.
Again, I am in no way saying that the Reds are a better team with Stubbs than Choo.
I am merely saying that, even if Choo and/or Bruce actually put up equal (or better) defensive statistics than Stubbs did last year, the Reds overall ability to prevent runs may suffer based on how this would affect the confidence/aggressiveness of our pitchers.
Other than Arroyo, all of our starters are expected to be equal to or better than last year (leavign Chapman out of the equation). Other than the change in CF, the defense will be the same or even slightly better depending on how Frazier pans out with the glove. If Baileys, Cuetos and Latos' individual K rates are down and walk rates are up (or really, their DiPs overall are suffering)after a few months into the season, I will believe that my above point will have been a contributing factor.
One of the biggest problems with using this defensive statistic is that it totally ignores a players ability to turn would be extra base hits into singles... a skill that I (anecdotally) believe Stubbs was one of if not the best in the league at.
Stubbs was excellent at keeping the ball in front of him... so good that it became his weakness on those bloop singles.
...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.
Of the 15 everyday starters from 2009 until last season, Stubbs ranks 5th in total UZR. However, he's closer to the middle of the pack than to the stalwarts at the top, especially if you add in Mike Trout, Carlos Gomez, and (believe it or not) Bryce Harper-- all of whom played remarkably well in the middle of the diamond.
This gives me hope for Choo. Harper's skill set-- speedy, great arm, unfamiliarity with the position-- is similar enough to Choo's to see an adequate CF emerge, much like what happened in Washington last season.
This takes two rather large assumptions as fact, neither of which I feel comfortable making. One, obviously, is that last season's struggles are a blip on the radar and not a sign of things to come. Before 2012, Choo was, according to UZR, pretty much the Drew Stubbs of RFers-- above average, though not awesomely so.
The second assumption is that Harper isn't some defensive freak with seriously underrated minor/ amateur defensive skills. Harper had little/ no time in the minors or during his amateur career as a CF. Scouts assumed he didn't have that ability. Scouts are often wrong about defensive ability at the amateur and minor league level.
In short, if Choo can channel his inner Dexter Fowler both offensively and defensively, he's a two-win improvement over Drew Stubbs.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
That's my biggest question. I think Choo will make the transition fine as far as fundamentals go, but if last year wasn't a UZR hiccup, he doesn't have anything resembling the skills to make it work either way. I could see this experiment going any number of directions really.
I have thought about this thread, and really don't think the Reds pitchers' confidence/aggressiveness is likely to be impacted very much by Choo playing CF as opposed to Stubbs -- unless of course Choo is a complete disaster out there, which I don't anticipate.
Thing is, Reds play in a home run stadium. Their pitchers must be focused on avoiding long fly balls. They want to keep the ball AWAY from the outfield, get grounders or Ks.
If I'm a Reds pitcher throwing at GABP or similar stadiums, I'm not really thinking too much about Drew Stubbs in CF. I'm thinking about the short right field porch. I'm thinking that Cozart and Phillips are money in the bank and a grounder to the infield is optimal.
Maybe pitchers for, say, San Diego or the Mets would care more about their outfield defenders. But a Reds pitcher doesn't want to throw fly balls -- even if Willie Mays is in CF -- because they are trying to counteract the home run possibility.
Upon reflection, I think this will all work out fine as long as Choo is reasonably competent in CF.
Also, as a plug for Walt, getting Choo really shows an ability to think out of the box. I'm sure he inquired about guys like Ben Revere for CF, but he wound up taking a defensive risk to obtain the perfect hitter for the ballclub. Very aggressive move by Walt, really hope it works out.
Last edited by Kc61; 02-14-2013 at 01:31 PM.
If I am Bryan Price, and I find out that my pitcher is claiming that he is yipping because he isn't sure about his CF defense, I'm going to tell him to quit making excuses and make better pitches that give any fielder an opportunity to field the ball for an out.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
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