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Thread: Can Homer win 20 games?

  1. #16
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    I'd be surprised if Homer wins 20 more games in his entire CAREER! I have a feeling something very bad will be happening to Mr. Baileys right arm in spring training or early in the year. And I mean worse than Tommy John.
    Last edited by BearcatShane; 02-13-2013 at 11:26 PM.
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  3. #17
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Quote Originally Posted by BearcatShane View Post
    I'd be surprised if Homer wins 20 more games in his entire CAREER! I have a feeling something very bad will be happening to Mr. Baileys right arm in sprong training or early in the year. And I mean worse than Tommy John.

  4. #18
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Quote Originally Posted by BearcatShane View Post
    I'd be surprised if Homer wins 20 more games in his entire CAREER! I have a feeling something very bad will be happening to Mr. Baileys right arm in sprong training or early in the year. And I mean worse than Tommy John.
    Worse than Tommy John? Like what - Rheal Cormier surgery?
    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
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  6. #19
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Quote Originally Posted by BearcatShane View Post
    I'd be surprised if Homer wins 20 more games in his entire CAREER! I have a feeling something very bad will be happening to Mr. Baileys right arm in spring training or early in the year. And I mean worse than Tommy John.
    Is this sarcasm or do you have a crystal ball? Dislike.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  7. #20
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    The run producing potential that i see the reds lineup having with Choo makes me believe that homer could very well pull off 20 wins. Obviously, the baseball gods will have to be on his side to make that happen.

  8. #21
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Tricky question.

    Real life odds probably give him a 2-5% chance of doing so. So much has to go right.

    But in his favor, he was 2nd on the staff in quality starts last year. (Arroyo 3rd, Latos 4th...a bit suprising)

    But if he stays healthly, improves a bit from last year (sub-4 ERA) he might have a 10 percent chance.

  9. #22
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    I have no idea how many games he'll win. However, I think 200 innings with an ERA around 3.25 is possible. I really like what I saw out of him the last few months of the season. His playoff start was one of the most dominant I've seen live.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  10. #23
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    All I ever want from Reds starting pitchers is 30 starts and 200 innings. To be honest, I had my doubts that Homer could ever achieve that in a season. I have far less doubts this season.
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
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  11. #24
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Do I think he can win 20 games...sure, but I doubt he does as long as he is a Red. GABP just seems to mess with his head to me. I think 15 wins this year is a pretty reasonable expactation from Homer this year.

  12. #25
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    If Homer builds on last year's numbers and can only slightly improve, the wins will take care of themselves. Staying healthy will be the key.
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

  13. #26
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Quote Originally Posted by BearcatShane View Post
    I'd be surprised if Homer wins 20 more games in his entire CAREER! I have a feeling something very bad will be happening to Mr. Baileys right arm in spring training or early in the year. And I mean worse than Tommy John.
    Why would someone ever post this?

  14. #27
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Not likely. Mainly its from a numbers standpoint. Most starters if they stay healthy the entire season only get about 35 starts. So you have to be somewhat lucky and really,really good the entire season. I hope he can but I doubt any Reds starter gets to 20. Four or Five starters in the 12 to 16 win range would be fine by me.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

  15. #28
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    I look at it like the NFL when football players are in their "money" year when they lay it all on the line for that one big contract that will set them up for life....Homer has made it well known that he dislikes playing in GABP, he has had some drama here in the past with the media and fans getting on him.....I can see Homer really turning up the heat this year and giving it his 100% best effort just because it can be his "money" year and his chance to roll out of here with a huge payday.........

    I have a 2 sided opinion on signing Homer long term.....I want Homer to be here long term if he can produce like he did last year, mainly the 2nd half.....but I just dont see the mental makeup in Homer, I see him as the pitcher who can be good and above average by just going out there and throwing the ball......once he gets his long term contract and has enough money to call himself "set for life" will he continue to learn the game or will he just go out there and throw the ball? I am almost willing to let him walk after this year regardless of how well he pitches....I hate investing tons of money into a player that just does not have the mentality to carry a team for more than just a year......Bronson is a perfect example, if Bronson had Homers arm, he would be a multiple cy young winner....Bronson understands the need to pitch instead of throw the ball and Bronson can take the heat when he is not at his best........

    I am not sure where all this leads and where the Reds stand with Homer but you can count me in the group that thinks he will win 20+ games this year....I just think he will win those games and walk his way right on up or down I-71

    Here is a question to ponder..........what is Cingrani and/or Corcino pitch very well in AAA and Homer is doing great...lets say 12-2 at the break.....do you look to deal Homer if you are almost 100% positive that he is not going to make GABP his home park? IT would be hard not to let him ride it out and help us win a title, then again it would be hard to watch him walk away at years end with no title and nothing in return.....If Homer is 12-2 then we could get a kings ransom for him at the break.....this is just a devils advocate question....I am not saying it will or should happen.....just food for thought

  16. #29
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsfaninMT View Post
    Easy now. If they stay healthy the staff might have a couple of 18 game winners. I'd be thrilled with 3 winning 16+ games, but without looking it up, I can't remember the last time a team had MULTIPLE 20 game winners.

    The dominant staff of my lifetime (and according to ESPN, any lifetime) was the Braves staff of Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Millwood, Negale, and IIRC there weren't even two 20 game winners there, but I sure could be wrong about that.

    No doubt somebody on here knows immediately the last team with 2 20 game winners?
    In 1993 Glavine won 22 games and Maddux won 20, but I believe that was the only season that the Braves of that era had two 20 game winners.
    Bailey or Latos or Cueto could be a 20 game winner this coming season, but the odds are none of them will achieve that.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

  17. #30
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsfaninMT View Post
    Easy now. If they stay healthy the staff might have a couple of 18 game winners. I'd be thrilled with 3 winning 16+ games, but without looking it up, I can't remember the last time a team had MULTIPLE 20 game winners.

    The dominant staff of my lifetime (and according to ESPN, any lifetime) was the Braves staff of Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Millwood, Negale, and IIRC there weren't even two 20 game winners there, but I sure could be wrong about that.

    No doubt somebody on here knows immediately the last team with 2 20 game winners?
    I foresee less faith in the bullpen and more innings for the starters. Plus a MUCH improved offense (hence more leads for the starters). It wouldn't shock me to see 2 starters with 20+ and a third just missing the mark 18 or so.
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