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Thread: Can Homer win 20 games?

  1. #31
    Member crazybob60's Avatar
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Here is how I see it...

    We will have 1 guy win 20, 1 guy win about 18, and another guy win about 16.

    Cueto, Latos, and Bailey will make up those three guys above. I am just not sure which guy will win which amount just yet.

    Arroyo will win about 13 to 14.

    Chapman will be at about the 10 to 11 mark as in my gut he just won't have the amount of starts needed to win much more as I think they try and stretch him out.

    Leake will get us about 5 to 7.

    This has been a 2013 projection of crazybob.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Quote Originally Posted by BearcatShane View Post
    I'd be surprised if Homer wins 20 more games in his entire CAREER! I have a feeling something very bad will be happening to Mr. Baileys right arm in spring training or early in the year. And I mean worse than Tommy John.
    That's just horrible man. a big

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  5. #33
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    I think the starters will have improved win totals because of the Choo-man-Soo. If Broxton closes around 85%, we're fine.

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  7. #34
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Quote Originally Posted by lidspinner View Post
    IHere is a question to ponder..........what is Cingrani and/or Corcino pitch very well in AAA and Homer is doing great...lets say 12-2 at the break.....do you look to deal Homer if you are almost 100% positive that he is not going to make GABP his home park?
    If Homer is on a roll in 2013, there's no way I even consider trading him at the deadline, no matter how good his potential replacement is.
    If he's pitching that well, he's likely a legitimate playoff starter, and you just don't get rid of guys like that when you are contending.

    It's highly likely Homer can fit in the budget through 2014 as well. No rush to trade him if he's producing, IMO.

    But to the topic, Homer is not going to win 20 games. 14-15 wins would be great, and more realistic. He's going to have some bad starts next year, I'm afraid, but overall still be good.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  8. #35
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Quote Originally Posted by lidspinner View Post
    ...Bronson is a perfect example, if Bronson had Homers arm, he would be a multiple cy young winner....Bronson understands the need to pitch instead of throw the ball and Bronson can take the heat when he is not at his best...
    I disagree with this. I'm assuming Bronson learned to pitch the way he does because he had didn't have the talent that Bailey has, and had to pitch with guile instead of with stuff. If Bronson did have Bailey's talent you can't assume he would have gone through the same learning experiences, because he would have been more able to rely on his stuff. He would still most likely be a better pitcher than Bailey is now, as Bailey is typically considered a bit of a head case by many. But you can't really just drag and drop Bronson's experience and intelligence onto Bailey's body.

  9. #36
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    I feel confident that the Reds will win at least 20 games this year. I'll have a better idea for gonelong's prediction thread.

    I just can't see the Reds going 19-143.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  11. #37
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    After watching Homer the 2nd half of last season he might be the most talented pitcher on the entire Reds roster

  12. #38
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Quote Originally Posted by drowg14 View Post
    I disagree with this. I'm assuming Bronson learned to pitch the way he does because he had didn't have the talent that Bailey has, and had to pitch with guile instead of with stuff. If Bronson did have Bailey's talent you can't assume he would have gone through the same learning experiences, because he would have been more able to rely on his stuff. He would still most likely be a better pitcher than Bailey is now, as Bailey is typically considered a bit of a head case by many. But you can't really just drag and drop Bronson's experience and intelligence onto Bailey's body.

    Fair opinion and I respect that.....but I sure would loves Bronson's pitcher IQ in homers body and arm.....homer has one of the best sliders in the national league yet he continues to use at his go to pitch almost each and every batter....I teach my high school kids to never use their go to pitch more than 2 times an inning......I have seen homer use it twice during an at bat....batters will eventually catch on to that and learn to hit your good stuff.......Greg Maddux once said that the best pitch he could throw was the one that he hadn't thrown yet that game.....his catchers use to talk about how hard it was to catch Greg because one night his fastball would be 91mph and the next start he would throw it at 85mph....off speed pitches would be 79mph one night and 65 mph another.....said he'd throw the famous back door fastball one inning and then shake it off the rest of the night.......the point is I have seen Homer use his entire arsenal of pitches in the first inning and by the 5th inning, every batter has seen everything homer has........Bronson will throw a fastball harder in the 7th inning then he did in the 1st then turn around 5 days later and never throw a fastball.....I seem Bronson throw 7 straight off speed pitches to Matt holiday once and Matt never made good contact, then next at bat Matt hits one 500 feet foul and homer throws another off speeder in there to K him......point is that Bronson uses his brain in one inning more than Homer uses it in a season and I would hope he would change that mentality and until he does I would never sign him to a LTC even if he does win me 20-24 games this year.

    But at the end of the day it's just my opinion and that's all, nothing more....usually my opinion is junk....at least that's what my wife tells me.

  13. #39
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Quote Originally Posted by BearcatShane View Post
    I'd be surprised if Homer wins 20 more games in his entire CAREER! I have a feeling something very bad will be happening to Mr. Baileys right arm in spring training or early in the year. And I mean worse than Tommy John.
    Worse than Tommy John!!! (who went 164-125 after his surgery)

    What could it be?

    Iron Mask??




    Forced to watch this guy eat a hamburger??




    Road trip with these guys??


  14. #40
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    [Edit: it was just too bad to keep unedited

  15. #41
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Worse than Tommy John!!! (who went 164-125 after his surgery)

    What could it be?

    Iron Mask??




    Forced to watch this guy eat a hamburger??




    Road trip with these guys??

    Probably this:
    http://youtu.be/qvAeWR-aE6U
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
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    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  16. #42
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    I think he wins around 17-18. He has a pretty bad stroke of luck, and has since his career began in regards to the bully blowing his wins for him.

    I think he'll have a career year. He's shown dominance in three different stretches of his career; last year down the stretch was the most convincing.
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
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  17. #43
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Assuming Homer is healthy and gets 35 starts, I predict that in 26 of them he will go at least six full innings giving up three runs or less. (This happened 22 times in 2012 in 34 starts counting the playoff start).

    I also predict that in five games the only reason he will give up more than 3 runs was because he was left in too long after showing signs of trouble after the 6th (this happened only twice in 2012)

    That means I think that there will be a maximum of seven times this season that Homer does not complete the 6th inning. This happened 11 times in 2012 (although the last game of the regular season should not count since he was pulled after 4 while pitching a shutout.)

    25 of the 85 earned runs (28 of the 97 runs) that Homer gave up in 2012 came in the six straight starts from July 31st to August 26th. That's 30% of the earned runs for the season came in an 18% stretch of the games. Part of that may be based on the parks (4 at home, one at Cubs and one at Philly), and part may be the heat making the ball travel.

    Without that 6 straight start cold streak, his season era drops from 3.68 to 3.06. If we reomove those 6 games, he only gave up more than 3 runs in 6 of the remaining 27 games.

  18. #44
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    Homer's 2nd half of 2012 coincides with Hanigan starting to catch and call the games too. I remember during the no-hitter that towards the end Hanigan was calling nothing but fastballs. Homer never turned him down once. To me, that stands out above all with respect to Homer's transition to the next level of his game.
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  19. #45
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Can Homer win 20 games?

    There are 623 seasons in MLB history in which a pitcher has thrown 200 IP with an ERA+ of 140 or better (about 2.80 these days). The pitcher won 20+ games in 284 of those seasons, roughly 45% of the time. So yeah, if you want a good shot at winning 20 games, you better put up a Cy Young type season.

    But the most overlooked factor when it comes to winning 20 games is run support. Without run support, you basically have no chance. You can be Nolan Ryan in 1987, throw 211 innings (34 GS) of 142 ERA+ ball (2.76 ERA) and go 8-16. Or more recently, you can be Cliff Lee, who last year threw 211 innings (30 GS) of 124 ERA+ ball (3.16 ERA) and went 6-9.

    With great run support, you don't need to put up a Cy Young season to win 20+ games. If a guy can make 32 starts and keep the runs allowed better than average, then he's got a chance. There have been 101 20+ win seasons in which the guy started fewer than 35 games and had an ERA+ between 100 and 120; roughly 1 per year on average.

    So can Homer win 20? Absolutely. Will he? I'd say it's quite unlikely.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 02-14-2013 at 07:08 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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