Can Homer win 20 games?

[lidspinner]

Redsmanrick......great write up.

[LegallyMinded]

With great run support, you don't need to put up a Cy Young season to win 20+ games. If a guy can make 32 starts and keep the runs allowed better than average, then he's got a chance. There have been 101 20+ win seasons in which the guy started fewer than 35 games and had an ERA+ between 100 and 120; roughly 1 per year on average.

So can Homer win 20? Absolutely. Will he? I'd say it's quite unlikely.

Regarding the run support, I think it's interesting that PECOTA has the Reds projected to score the most runs in the NL. Naturally that doesn't mean that Bailey himself will benefit from high run-support, and I agree with you that 20 wins is still pretty unlikely, but perhaps it isn't as improbable as it might seem based on last season's rather average offensive performance.

[WebScorpion]

I think in 1970 Jim Palmer, Dave McNally, and Mike Cuellar all won 20 games for the Orioles. I'm not sure Maddox, Glavine, and Smoltz ever did it in the same season.

Anyway, I think the Reds have a chance to have a special rotation like that and I also believe Homer is one of the guys who could win 20.

[texasdave]

I think in 1970 Jim Palmer, Dave McNally, and Mike Cuellar all won 20 games for the Orioles. I'm not sure Maddox, Glavine, and Smoltz ever did it in the same season.

Anyway, I think the Reds have a chance to have a special rotation like that and I also believe Homer is one of the guys who could win 20.

In 1971, the O's had four twenty-game winners. Palmer, McNally, Cuellar and Pat Dobson.

[jhiller21]

A pitcher winning a game is a pretty flawed stat. There's too many variables in any given game to make it a valuable way of measuring how good a pitcher is. That being said, I think Homer will win 13-16, with an ERA of 3.60.