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Thread: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

  1. #46
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    I really like the Choo acquisition, but if money is an issue (and I'm betting it will be) I make a qualifying offer and take a draft pick. The Reds will be losing Arroyo after this year, Bailey after next and then Leake, Latos and Cueto all after 2015. Chapman would be a free agent after 2016 IIRC. The Reds have some kids who will take some of those spots, but the Reds need to keep at least 2 of Chapman (if he works out), Latos, Cueto and Bailey. Seeing what decent under 30 starters are costing these days, its going to take some big bucks to keep any of them IMO. Cueto and Latos may both get 9 figure deals, if Chapman asserts himself in the rotation, he will too. Even Bailey is probably looking at Anibal Sanchez money.

    I'd probably draft a college pitcher with the pick from Choo. We can't count on all the kids working out and taking the current group's place.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  4. #47
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I really like the Choo acquisition, but if money is an issue (and I'm betting it will be) I make a qualifying offer and take a draft pick. The Reds will be losing Arroyo after this year, Bailey after next and then Leake, Latos and Cueto all after 2015. Chapman would be a free agent after 2016 IIRC. The Reds have some kids who will take some of those spots, but the Reds need to keep at least 2 of Chapman (if he works out), Latos, Cueto and Bailey. Seeing what decent under 30 starters are costing these days, its going to take some big bucks to keep any of them IMO. Cueto and Latos may both get 9 figure deals, if Chapman asserts himself in the rotation, he will too. Even Bailey is probably looking at Anibal Sanchez money.

    I'd probably draft a college pitcher with the pick from Choo. We can't count on all the kids working out and taking the current group's place.
    It all comes back to drafting and development. If you are confident in your drafting and development then you can take some risk predicting the likes of Corcino, Cingrani, Stevenson, and Travieso are able to slot in to the rotation. If you are able to project/predict young cheap talent, then it would be a smart idea to look at improving your offense.

    Boras has been burned so far this off season. He had what he thought to be two of the top tier FA's. Probably the ones right behind Hamilton and Grienke. Borne got below what he thought he would get at 4/$48 and Lohse remains unsigned as ST enters its 2nd week. If you could get Choo at the same rate as Borne would you do it? It would pretty much replace Arroyo's contract and give you a top 3 of Choo, Phillips, Votto in the lineup locked up during their prime.

    One more thing to consider, with the exception of Hamilton, most of the Reds top prospects are pitchers. A good thing to have, but one to consider when making moves for the future.

  5. #48
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    It all comes back to drafting and development. If you are confident in your drafting and development then you can take some risk predicting the likes of Corcino, Cingrani, Stevenson, and Travieso are able to slot in to the rotation. If you are able to project/predict young cheap talent, then it would be a smart idea to look at improving your offense.

    Boras has been burned so far this off season. He had what he thought to be two of the top tier FA's. Probably the ones right behind Hamilton and Grienke. Borne got below what he thought he would get at 4/$48 and Lohse remains unsigned as ST enters its 2nd week. If you could get Choo at the same rate as Borne would you do it? It would pretty much replace Arroyo's contract and give you a top 3 of Choo, Phillips, Votto in the lineup locked up during their prime.

    One more thing to consider, with the exception of Hamilton, most of the Reds top prospects are pitchers. A good thing to have, but one to consider when making moves for the future.
    Arroyo's, Masset's and likely Choo's money and the TV bump are probably already spent on increases for Votto, Phillips, Bruce, etc.

    If we're going to turn over the whole rotation in three years, there'd better be more than 4 or 5 guys to choose from. I think we'll need 10 plus possibilities to fill 5 spots at a championship caliber level. I'm not interested in a rotation filled with 4th and 5th guys that finishes 3rd or 4th in the division. Under the sign Choo and go with prospects in the rotation plan, all three of Corcino, Cingrani and Stephenson need to hit it big to prevent a drop-off. Might happen, but I'd bet against it. They're pitchers. Some will not be able to go through major league line-ups 3 times per game and end-up in the pen. Others will get hurt. Some won't be able to command the zone. Two of the current guys need to be extended at least until one or more of the others steps up to that level. I don't see that happening by 2016.

    Fill a couple of those spots with the proven guys on hand and filling it out decently with what is in the system becomes a lot more likely. IMO, that means no money for Choo. Bruce, Hamilton, Votto, Phillips, Frazier, Mesoraco and even Cozart will still be around. Winker or one of the others will need to take over for Ludwick. I think its easier to fill one LF spot from within or with a cheap Free Agent than 3 or 4 rotation spots even if the current propsect list is more dominated by pitchers than by position players. The money goes toward Latos and one of the others IMO. Depending on how Chapman does (and assuming he works out as planned) my priority would be Latos, Chapman, Bailey and Cueto, in that order, before spending money on a big contract for Choo.
    Last edited by mth123; 02-18-2013 at 05:46 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Wasn't there a quote from Walt right after the trade saying the plan was Choo to be a 1 year thing? With that being said, I'd be all for resigning him. If Choo, Ludwick, and Hamilton all have good years you could easily flip Ludwick somewhere.

    Also, the Reds aren't going to lose all of Bailey, Cueto, Latos, and Chapman. They'll re-sign at least a couple of them.
    Last edited by reds44; 02-19-2013 at 05:02 AM.
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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Wasn't there a quote from Walt right after the trade saying the plan was Choo to be a 1 year thing? With that being said, I'd be all for resigning him. If Choo, Ludwick, and Hamilton all have good years you could easily flip Ludwick somewhere.

    Also, the Reds aren't going to lose all of Bailey, Cueto, Latos, and Chapman. They'll re-sign at least a couple of them.
    I think they will too, but it will take a ton of money to do it. I'd say that re-signing a couple of them takes priority over giving any money to Choo. If they can afford to sign two of them and keep Choo, I'm all for it. I don't see it unless they deal off another big contract. Phillips? Bruce? Who would you choose to jettison to keep Choo around?

    Latos will hit free agency at his age 28 season He's a $100 Million deal waiting to happen. Cueto will be 29. That's another $100 Million plus. Bailey will be 28. Probably somewhere between Jackson at 4 for $52 Million and Sanchez at 5 for $80 Million. Chapman will be 29 when he gets there too. If he reaches his potential, he'll dwarf the deals all the others get. Hard to see the team having money for Choo when they have his replacement in hand and those potential deals staring them in the face.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    The rest is drama. marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Wasn't there a quote from Walt right after the trade saying the plan was Choo to be a 1 year thing? With that being said, I'd be all for resigning him. If Choo, Ludwick, and Hamilton all have good years you could easily flip Ludwick somewhere.

    Also, the Reds aren't going to lose all of Bailey, Cueto, Latos, and Chapman. They'll re-sign at least a couple of them.
    I don't know that he ever closed the door on re-signing him. Here's the quote I remember:

    "It works well into our long-range plan," Jocketty said. "We have Choo for this year, and we'll see what happens. We know that Hamilton should be ready by [2014] to play center field and hit leadoff."
    http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/...s_cin&c_id=cin

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  10. #52
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    It depends on how big your list is for the best players in baseball. If we're talking top 10, no. I'd say he's roughly somewhere in the range of 50th to 75th most valuable player (including pitchers) in the major leagues and that he's more valuable than all of our offensive players except Votto, although you could make an argument for Phillips. Evidence:

    Of all outfielders with at least 500 plate appearances last year, he had the 16th highest runs created per 27 outs. As an aside, Drew Stubbs was the worst.

    Of all the outfielders with at least 1000 plate appearances over the last 3 years, he is #12 in RC27.

    Considering that by my count, there are 90 starting outfielders playing in the major leagues at any given time, that puts him in the 86th offensive percentile, which makes him very good. Conservatively, it makes him just about a top 100 player. But because of his good defense (or perhaps, better stated, the subpar defense of some of many of the guys who hit better than he does), I'd rank him in the top 75 for sure.

    Here is the list of the 12 outfielders who have hit better than Choo over the last 3 years (as measured by RC27), followed by the 16 who hit better than him last year. By the way, I agree with the person who said that Swisher was a good comp for the type of contract Choo could have expected if he had hit free agency this offseason. Their RC27 is nearly the same (Swisher a smidge higher) both last year and over the last 3 years. However, Swisher is a couple years older.

    Outfielders who have been better offensive players than Choo over last 3 seasons (with at least 1000 total PAs)

    Bautista
    Braun
    Hamilton
    Cargo
    Holliday
    McCutcheon
    Stanton, G
    Kemp
    Willingham
    Beltran
    Swisher

    Outfielders who were better offensive players than Choo last year (with at least 500 PAs)

    Trout
    McCutcheon
    Stanton
    Braun
    Melky
    Hamilton
    Fowler
    CarGo
    D. Murphy
    Holliday
    Austin Jackson
    Cespedes
    Willingham
    Swisher
    Zobrist

    Let me put it this way, if Choo isn't "great," then the only "great" non-pitcher on this roster is Joey Votto.
    I think that's very fair. Choo is not one of the top-30 players in baseball, but he's certainly top 75. I would put him in the "good" category, definitely not "great." And yes, I think Votto is the only offensive player on the Reds' roster that holds the mantle of "great."

    Let's all hope Choo's recent decline isn't a trend. I was unfortunate enough to have the guy on my fantasy team (money league) the last 2 years. Ha. Not that he was terrible, but you had to draft him early to get him, or pay a lot of money at auctions. Just had the feeling he was an overrated guy in 2011 and 2012.

    Classic Walt though ... he bought low on Choo for sure. If we get the 2009 and 2010 version of Choo -- when he had OPS' of .883 and .885 -- as opposed to the 2011 and 2012 version -- when he had OPS' of .733 and .815 -- we're going to be a happy bunch of Reds fans for sure.

    But Choo great? Not when he posts a .733 OPS one year, then follows it up with .815. He was approaching greatness after his 2009 and 2010 seasons, but we've seen a sharp decline in his numbers the last two years. I think GABP might be just the thing to get him turned around, but Cleveland's park is also known as a hitter's park (not as much as GABP though, of course). And that even helps players when they're on the road too. Their confidence is high from hitting well at home and then they hit well on the road too. I expect a bounce-back year from Choo, I just think a lot of people who think he's a great player are setting themselves up for disappointment. I know it was fantasy ball, but I followed him very closely for two full seasons and he was a big disappointment.

  11. #53
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think they will too, but it will take a ton of money to do it. I'd say that re-signing a couple of them takes priority over giving any money to Choo. If they can afford to sign two of them and keep Choo, I'm all for it. I don't see it unless they deal off another big contract. Phillips? Bruce? Who would you choose to jettison to keep Choo around?

    Latos will hit free agency at his age 28 season He's a $100 Million deal waiting to happen. Cueto will be 29. That's another $100 Million plus. Bailey will be 28. Probably somewhere between Jackson at 4 for $52 Million and Sanchez at 5 for $80 Million. Chapman will be 29 when he gets there too. If he reaches his potential, he'll dwarf the deals all the others get. Hard to see the team having money for Choo when they have his replacement in hand and those potential deals staring them in the face.
    I totally agree I highly doubt they'll be able to keep Choo, Cueto, Latos, and Bailey all around. Not everyone will be back. However, the Reds payroll this year is going to be $100 million, which I never thought I would see. Keep winning and keep bringing fans to the park, and who knows how high the payroll can go.
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    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Seems Choo is very cool dude.

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/c...utfield-022213

    Most players, upon learning they’ve been traded, exchange a few words with club officials, then hang up the phone and go on their way. Choo, on the other hand, sent Antonetti a moving letter — a letter that he was willing to share with FOXSports.com as long as Antonetti approved, which he did.

    Choo, a native of Pusan, South Korea, wrote his letter in English.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    I had not realized Choo was from Pusan. I took an overnight ferry into Pusan and spent a couple days there. Actually had a crazy time there. Kinda cool to know the actual city he calls home.

  14. #56
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Easy to root for a guy like that.

  15. #57
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Playing center today, my brother tells me he (Choo) covered a TON of ground and made some VERY NICE running catches. He said he looked very smooth out there. Take it for what it's worth. Personally, I think my brother just wanted to rub it in my face and remind me that he lives about 5 miles away from the Goodyear complex. Grrrrrr.
    Chapman to the rotation!!!! Do it already!!!!

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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    If Hamilton comes up short at Louisville, Choo is a nice option to consider for the future.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Given the state of the payroll, is there any room to pay him? I fully expect the Reds & WJ to take advantage of the farm system when given a chance ( 2014 Billy Hamilton). FOr these same reasons I thought the Rolen decision was the right way to go - hand the job over to a youngster making a fraction of what the veteran demands. But if Choo were resignd, he may be able to play left field if Hamilton will be ready.
    Pete Rose will be leaving the Montreal Expos to become player - manager for the Cincinnati Reds

  18. #60
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Choo will be 31 in July. No interest in a 4 or 5 year deal in the $60 to $75 Million range during his decline. If they could get him for another couple of years, great, but the pitching is going to take a ton of money to keep this team competitive.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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