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Thread: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

  1. #31
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    Plus, I don't see Choo being as good a LF as Ludwick.
    I'm guessing you may be the only poster here who thinks that.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Strategy by Boras; empty verbiage by Walt. Can we imagine Walt saying anything else? Could he say, even if he thought it, "No, we really don't see Choo working out here beyond this year."

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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    I don't see a logjam in the outfield in 2014 if the Reds can work out a deal with Choo.

    Ludwick only appeared in 125 regular season games last year. Dusty rests him very frequently. And Hamilton will be a rookie in 2014, the Reds tend to break rookies in slowly.

    For 2014, Reds could easily go with all four of them, with maybe Heisey being traded.

    After that, they can let Ludwick go or re-sign him to a cheaper contract as a backup.

    The issue is how well Choo does this year, how much money the Reds are willing to pay him, how long a deal they are willing to give. But I don't see a major logjam out there.

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    Nathan (02-16-2013)

  7. #34
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    A) I've maintained Ludwick's effectively on a one-year deal that pays him over the span of two years. If the Reds get a return on investment in 2013, then I don't mind him being a role player in 2014.

    B) I wouldn't sign Choo for five years. Three strikes me as the right length of deal for him, maybe with an option for a 4th year.

    C) Arroyo's contract comes off the books after this season, so the Reds will have money to play with.

    D) Hamilton and Choo hitting 1-2 in the lineup would be kind of awesome.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    OnBaseMachine (02-16-2013)

  9. #35
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    What's a fair guess/comp for Choo for his next contract? $12 mill a year?

    Swisher got 4 at $56. Is that a more reasonable guess?

    I know the Reds pulled some rabbits out of their hat in recent years with extensions etc but I just don't see the team having the bank to keep Choo around. Not without trading off a high priced salary somewhere else on the team.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

  10. #36
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    A) I've maintained Ludwick's effectively on a one-year deal that pays him over the span of two years. If the Reds get a return on investment in 2013, then I don't mind him being a role player in 2014.

    B) I wouldn't sign Choo for five years. Three strikes me as the right length of deal for him, maybe with an option for a 4th year.

    C) Arroyo's contract comes off the books after this season, so the Reds will have money to play with.

    D) Hamilton and Choo hitting 1-2 in the lineup would be kind of awesome.
    But remember the Reds have A LOT of players that will be 1st/2nd time arbitration after this season.

  11. #37
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I'm guessing you may be the only poster here who thinks that.
    Possibly. But Ludwick plays a nice LF, from what I saw last year, and he's got a lot more experience there than Choo does.

    Since the Choo trade, I've also read a lot suggesting he's not the surest thing in RF in terms of speed and routes.

    I'm not saying I'd mind seeing him re-signed past 2013, though I'd expect it to be cost-prohibitive.

    Actually, I'd probably hate to see Choo go and lose the LH bat. I guess we can hope he stays and the team has an embarrassment of OF options.
    Last edited by malcontent; 02-16-2013 at 01:23 PM.

  12. #38
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    I don't think it's likely, but trading for Choo at huge discount and then signing him up long-term would be Walt Jockety 101.
    Championships Matter.
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  14. #39
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Quote Originally Posted by I(heart)
    Swisher got 4 at $56. Is that a more reasonable guess?
    I would say Choo gets at least that. He's a better overall player than Swisher IMO. I suppose a lot depends on his 2013 performance.
    "I’ll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. That’s just how I do things.” -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  15. #40
    Member joshua's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel View Post
    What's a fair guess/comp for Choo for his next contract? $12 mill a year?

    Swisher got 4 at $56. Is that a more reasonable guess?

    I know the Reds pulled some rabbits out of their hat in recent years with extensions etc but I just don't see the team having the bank to keep Choo around. Not without trading off a high priced salary somewhere else on the team.
    Just when I think this team doesn't have money to sign the guys they want, they do. I dont worry about financials at all. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if they managed to sign Choo to a 3-5 year deal.

  16. #41
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Sign Choo long term? Yes, please!

    This isn't your father's Reds anymore.

  17. #42
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    I would love to be wrong, but Choo is not as good as most here are making him out to be. He's pretty good. Throwing around terms like "one of the best offensive players in baseball" and "he's a guy you can build a team around" are extreme exaggerations IMO. I'm concerned that his numbers have tailed off the last two years.

    Glad the Reds have him, but I'm taken aback a bit by all the comments about his perceived greatness. I hope some of you aren't setting yourself up for disappointment. Choo is a lot closer to "good" than "great."

    Then again, that's one heck of an upgrade from Drew Stubbs so I DO understand the excitement to some degree.
    It depends on how big your list is for the best players in baseball. If we're talking top 10, no. I'd say he's roughly somewhere in the range of 50th to 75th most valuable player (including pitchers) in the major leagues and that he's more valuable than all of our offensive players except Votto, although you could make an argument for Phillips. Evidence:

    Of all outfielders with at least 500 plate appearances last year, he had the 16th highest runs created per 27 outs. As an aside, Drew Stubbs was the worst.

    Of all the outfielders with at least 1000 plate appearances over the last 3 years, he is #12 in RC27.

    Considering that by my count, there are 90 starting outfielders playing in the major leagues at any given time, that puts him in the 86th offensive percentile, which makes him very good. Conservatively, it makes him just about a top 100 player. But because of his good defense (or perhaps, better stated, the subpar defense of some of many of the guys who hit better than he does), I'd rank him in the top 75 for sure.

    Here is the list of the 12 outfielders who have hit better than Choo over the last 3 years (as measured by RC27), followed by the 16 who hit better than him last year. By the way, I agree with the person who said that Swisher was a good comp for the type of contract Choo could have expected if he had hit free agency this offseason. Their RC27 is nearly the same (Swisher a smidge higher) both last year and over the last 3 years. However, Swisher is a couple years older.

    Outfielders who have been better offensive players than Choo over last 3 seasons (with at least 1000 total PAs)

    Bautista
    Braun
    Hamilton
    Cargo
    Holliday
    McCutcheon
    Stanton, G
    Kemp
    Willingham
    Beltran
    Swisher

    Outfielders who were better offensive players than Choo last year (with at least 500 PAs)

    Trout
    McCutcheon
    Stanton
    Braun
    Melky
    Hamilton
    Fowler
    CarGo
    D. Murphy
    Holliday
    Austin Jackson
    Cespedes
    Willingham
    Swisher
    Zobrist

    Let me put it this way, if Choo isn't "great," then the only "great" non-pitcher on this roster is Joey Votto.
    Last edited by cincinnati chili; 02-18-2013 at 01:14 AM. Reason: clarifying comment about Swisher
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

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  19. #43
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    Just noticed too (sorry if this was mentioned already) that MLBTraderumors shows Choo as the #6 free agent going into 2014. Plus, four of the five guys ahead of him could see their stock drop below Choo if their recent injuries flare up again.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014-f...ower-rankings/

    If Choo has a good year this year, I see somebody paying him a lot - probably quite a bit more than he's worth - given the expected scarcity of impact free agents.
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

  20. #44
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    I think Walt never rules anything out. It would be foolish to.

    Honesty, we need a bat like 2012 Ludwick batting cleanup. I don't expect Frasier to be able to do that (although he is a nice player).

    While we also need a leadoff hitter, we have Hamilton coming up, which makes it less urgent to sign Choo after this year.

    I just find it hard to believe that Ludwick is going to make 7 million to be a 4th OF. He'd have to be traded if the Reds extended Choo. I think Choo is going to get 15 million/year or more from someone this offseason, and it won't be the Reds.

    Extending Choo is a longshot, because unless Bruce or Ludwick suffer a career threatening injury, it just doesn't make sense. The money wil likely go to arbitration guys.
    Heck, if Bronson has another good year, and is willing to come back on a short term contract after 2013, a case could be made that he adds more bang for the buck than extending Choo in our already full OF.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  21. #45
    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

    He's two years younger than Swish; I bet he gets 6 years, which is too much for the Reds IMO. They've got plenty of time to decide, of course, but I'd say if Ludwick performs anywhere close to last season's results, they'll stick with him in left and plan to replace him in 2015.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski


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