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Thread: Reds over/under

  1. #1
    Member cincrazy's Avatar
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    Reds over/under

    A few days ago Vegas released their over/under on the win total of MLB teams. So I thought it'd be a fun idea to start a Reds-related over/under thread. Here goes nothing!

    1.Joey Votto homeruns- 29.5. I say over.
    2.Aroldis Chapman IP- 150
    3.Johnny Cueto wins- 17.5
    4.Ryan Ludwick homeruns- 24.5
    5.Joey Votto RBIs- 109.5
    6.Todd Frazier homeruns- 19.5
    7.Jonathan Broxton saves- 29.5
    8.Choo OBP- .385
    9.Jay Bruce homeruns- 34.5
    10.Reds win total- 94.5
    11. Reds postseason wins- 2.5

    Granted, these are just a few of the very many I could do, so if you have any other interesting ones to add please feel free. Here are my guesses:

    1. Over. I'm thinking Votto comes closer to his 2010 power numbers than 2011.
    2. Under. I think he ends up back in the pen.
    3. Under. I think a slight regression in performance is coming for Cueto, and the starting pitchers in general this year may find a bit less luck with the win total if the bullpen isn't as dominant as it was last year.
    4. Under. I love Ludwick, but don't think he can match last year's performance.
    5. Over. I think Votto's going to have his best RBI season yet.
    6. Over. Frazier will no doubt hit his growing pains this year, but I think he has enough raw power to surpass 20 homers.
    7. Under. For this reason- I think Chapman ends up as the closer.
    8. Over.
    9. Over.
    10. Under. I'm thinking between 92-94 wins.
    11. Over. This number is much more important than the regular season number .

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    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Reds over/under

    1.Joey Votto homeruns- 29.5.
    2.Aroldis Chapman IP- 150
    3.Johnny Cueto wins- 17.5
    4.Ryan Ludwick homeruns- 24.5
    5.Joey Votto RBIs- 109.5
    6.Todd Frazier homeruns- 19.5
    7.Jonathan Broxton saves- 29.5
    8.Choo OBP- .385
    9.Jay Bruce homeruns- 34.5
    10.Reds win total- 94.5
    11. Reds postseason wins- 2.5

    1. Over. If he stays healthy all season he should hit 30+.
    2. Over. He will end up with 170+
    3. Under.
    4. Under.
    5. Over. Finally has decent table-setters.
    6. Under. Not a believer in Frazier.
    7. Over. He should get a lot of opportunities.
    8. Over. But it will be close.
    9. Over. 40+
    10. Under. Closer to 90 wins.
    11. Over.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 02-17-2013 at 07:35 PM.

  4. #3
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Reds over/under

    1.Joey Votto homeruns- 29.5 Over - I think he hits right around 30-32 HR. He should get more pitches to hit this season.

    2.Aroldis Chapman IP- 150 Under - I chose under, but not by much. I think he'll throw around 140 innings.

    3.Johnny Cueto wins- 17.5 Over - With an improved offense, Cueto should have quality run support this season. 18-20 wins is possible.

    4.Ryan Ludwick homeruns- 24.5 Over - This one was very debatable to me. I'll go slightly over though as I think he has a chance to hit right around 25 HR.

    5.Joey Votto RBIs- 109.5 Over - Should have plenty of RBI opportunities with Choo/Phillips 1-2.

    6.Todd Frazier homeruns- 19.5 Over - He hit 19 last year. If he stays healthy he'll get more atbats this year. I'm going with around 22 HR.

    7.Jonathan Broxton saves- 29.5 Under - I think Marshall and Hoover will get a few save chances too. Broxton won't miss this number by much.

    8.Choo OBP- .385 Over - I think Choo is going to have a MVP type season. I'm thinking .390+ OBP.

    9.Jay Bruce homeruns- 34.5 Over - He's getting better each season. Might this be the year he cracks 40 HR?

    10.Reds win total- 94.5 Over - They won 97 last season, and added Choo this season. 95-100 wins is very possible.

    11. Reds postseason wins- 2.5 Over - I'm picking the Reds to win the NL Pennant.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  5. #4
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Reds over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    1.Joey Votto homeruns- 29.5. Under
    2.Aroldis Chapman IP- 150 Over
    3.Johnny Cueto wins- 17.5 Under
    4.Ryan Ludwick homeruns- 24.5 Over
    5.Joey Votto RBIs- 109.5 Under
    6.Todd Frazier homeruns- 19.5 Over
    7.Jonathan Broxton saves- 29.5 Over
    8.Choo OBP- .385 Over
    9.Jay Bruce homeruns- 34.5 Under
    10.Reds win total- 94.5 Under
    11. Reds postseason wins- 2.5 Over
    Very nice questions, with well placed data points I might add. Some truly were too close to call, but you asked for answers and you got them.

  6. #5
    always ask questions bigredmechanism's Avatar
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    Re: Reds over/under

    1.Joey Votto homeruns- 29.5. Over
    2.Aroldis Chapman IP- 150 Under
    3.Johnny Cueto wins- 17.5 Under
    4.Ryan Ludwick homeruns- 24.5 Under
    5.Joey Votto RBIs- 109.5 Over
    6.Todd Frazier homeruns- 19.5 Under
    7.Jonathan Broxton saves- 29.5 Over
    8.Choo OBP- .385 Over
    9.Jay Bruce homeruns- 34.5 Over
    10.Reds win total- 94.5 Over
    11. Reds postseason wins- 2.5 Over, I think the Reds will win 11 in the postseason.

  7. #6
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds over/under

    1.Joey Votto homeruns- 29.5.
    2.Aroldis Chapman IP- 150
    3.Johnny Cueto wins- 17.5
    4.Ryan Ludwick homeruns- 24.5
    5.Joey Votto RBIs- 109.5
    6.Todd Frazier homeruns- 19.5
    7.Jonathan Broxton saves- 29.5
    8.Choo OBP- .385
    9.Jay Bruce homeruns- 34.5
    10.Reds win total- 94.5
    11. Reds postseason wins- 2.5


    1. Over. He's baaaaack.
    2. Under. But not by much.
    3. Under. Have a bad feeling about his health.
    4. Over.
    5. Over.
    6. Over. But struggles with RHP and has a low OBP.
    7. Over.
    8. Over.
    9. Over.
    10. Over. I have 95 wins.
    11. Over. This is the year.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  8. #7
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    1.Joey Votto homeruns- 29.5. Under
    2.Aroldis Chapman IP- 150 Under
    3.Johnny Cueto wins- 17.5 Under
    4.Ryan Ludwick homeruns- 24.5 Under
    5.Joey Votto RBIs- 109.5 Under
    6.Todd Frazier homeruns- 19.5 Under
    7.Jonathan Broxton saves- 29.5 Under
    8.Choo OBP- .385 Under
    9.Jay Bruce homeruns- 34.5 Under
    10.Reds win total- 94.5 Under
    11. Reds postseason wins- 2.5 Over!
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  9. #8
    15 game winner Danny Serafini's Avatar
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    Re: Reds over/under

    1.Joey Votto homeruns- 29.5 Over
    2.Aroldis Chapman IP- 150 Under
    3.Johnny Cueto wins- 17.5 Under
    4.Ryan Ludwick homeruns- 24.5 Under
    5.Joey Votto RBIs- 109.5 Under
    6.Todd Frazier homeruns- 19.5 Over
    7.Jonathan Broxton saves- 29.5 Over
    8.Choo OBP- .385 Under
    9.Jay Bruce homeruns- 34.5 Under
    10.Reds win total- 94.5 Over
    11. Reds postseason wins- 2.5 Over

  10. #9
    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: Reds over/under

    1.Joey Votto homeruns- 29.5. Over
    2.Aroldis Chapman IP- 150 Under
    3.Johnny Cueto wins- 17.5 Under
    4.Ryan Ludwick homeruns- 24.5 Under
    5.Joey Votto RBIs- 109.5 Over
    6.Todd Frazier homeruns- 19.5 Over
    7.Jonathan Broxton saves- 29.5 Over
    8.Choo OBP- .385 Over
    9.Jay Bruce homeruns- 34.5 Over
    10.Reds win total- 94.5 Over
    11. Reds postseason wins- 2.5 Over

  11. #10
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    1.Joey Votto homeruns- Under, but close
    2.Aroldis Chapman IP- Under, I was thinking around 140 or so
    3.Johnny Cueto wins- Over++, Tops 20. Around 22 I think.
    4.Ryan Ludwick homeruns- Over, close though
    5.Joey Votto RBIs- Over++, leads the league by a long margin
    6.Todd Frazier homeruns- Over, close
    7.Jonathan Broxton saves- Under, close again
    8.Choo OBP- Under, .350 to .370 ish.
    9.Jay Bruce homeruns- Over++, leads the league near 50.
    10.Reds win total- Over++, tops 100, most wins in the bigs.
    11. Reds postseason wins- Over++, WS title baby!
    Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 02-18-2013 at 10:42 AM.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  12. #11
    OOOOH YEEEAHHHH!! CarolinaRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Reds over/under

    1.Joey Votto homeruns- 29.5. Under
    2.Aroldis Chapman IP- 150. Push
    3.Johnny Cueto wins- 17.5. Over
    4.Ryan Ludwick homeruns- 24.5. Over
    5.Joey Votto RBIs- 109.5. Over
    6.Todd Frazier homeruns- 19.5. Over
    7.Jonathan Broxton saves- 29.5. Over
    8.Choo OBP- .385. Over
    9.Jay Bruce homeruns- 34.5. Under
    10.Reds win total- 94.5. Over
    11. Reds postseason wins- 2.5. Over

  13. #12
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds over/under

    Code:
    #	Player		Stat		Value	O/U	My guess	
    1	Joey Votto 	Homeruns 	 29.5	OVER	 32
    2	Aroldis Chapman IP		150.0	UNDER	140
    3	Johnny Cueto 	wins		 17.5	UNDER	 16   	
    4	Ryan Ludwick 	Homeruns	 24.5	UNDER	 20
    5	Joey Votto 	RBIs		109.5	OVER	115
    6	Todd Frazier 	Homeruns	 19.5	OVER	 22
    7	Broxton		Saves		 29.5	UNDER	 25     
    8	Choo 		OBP		 .385	UNDER	.375
    9	Jay Bruce 	HR		 34.5	OVER	 36
    10	Reds 		Win total	 94.5	UNDER	 90
    11 	Reds 		Postseason wins	  2.5	OVER	  5
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #13
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds over/under

    Leave it to RMR to format it like a nerd. :O) I kid.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  15. #14
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Leave it to RMR to format it like a nerd. :O) I kid.
    That's usually a safe bet...
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  16. Likes:

    bigredmechanism (02-18-2013), _Sir_Charles_ (02-18-2013)

  17. #15
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds over/under

    Hey, I just noticed the "like" button is gone. I was going to hit yours Rick. Odd.

    Hmmm....after I refresh, it shows up after a few seconds. Strange.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG


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