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Thread: Brandon Phillips Batting 2nd

  1. #106
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips Batting 2nd

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I'm sorry, forgive me, I can't figure out what numbers you are providing. Just don't know what the numbers represent.

    Generally, Votto has been better against righties (although better v. lefties in 2011), but is obviously excellent against all pitching.

    Bruce may "punish lefties with power" but he hit .225 against lefties, .754 OPS last year, and struck out 56 times in 194 PAs against lefties. Lifetime .231 hitter against lefties and .747 OPS, with 233 Ks in 837 PAs.

    OBP, against lefties, Bruce last year was .304. Lifetime is .310. These numbers would affect his hitting second against LHP.

    For a left handed power hitter, Bruce is fine against lefties, but there is no compelling case for him to hit cleanup against them. For that matter, there is no compelling case for him to hit second against them.
    I think the case TRF was making is that since Bruce holds his own against lefties well enough that it doesn't make sense to put Bruce in the lower half of the lineup against a right-handed starting pitcher just because you are afraid of him facing a LOOGY in his last at-bat of the game, especially when you realize that batting him 5th has not prevented opponents from using the LOOGY against him anyway.

    Dusty has said the reason he splits up the lefties in the lineup is because he doesn't want both Votto and Bruce to have to face a LOOGY in the late innings. The problem with his reasoning is that putting only one batter in between Votto and Bruce has not prevented the other team from putting in a LOOGY to face Votto and leaving him in to face Ludwick and Bruce. What this means is that splitting up the lefties has never actually accomplished what Dusty wants it to do.

    Furthermore, using Ludwick as the gap between Votto and Bruce doesn't punish the other team for putting in a LOOGY to face our #3-5 hitters because Ludwick does not hit lefties well and hits RHP much better even though he is a right-handed batter (Ludwick career .240/.322/.452 vs LHP and .273/.339/.471 vs RHP). It would be smarter to put Phillips in the middle because he hits lefties much better than righties (.293/.341/.491 vs LHP and .265/.314/.412 vs RHP) so putting him between Votto and Bruce would help get him more ABs vs LHP and provides a stronger deterrent to the opponent for leaving the LOOGY in to face three Reds' batters. If you really must split up Votto and Bruce (even though it doesn't work) then Phillips is the guy that should be in the middle.

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  3. #107
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips Batting 2nd

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Votto vs LH pitching last three years: .302 .407 .506

    I do not care if they bring a LOOGY in to face him..

    Bruce vs LH pitching last three years: .247 .322 .495
    Not as good, but he still punishes them with power.

    I'd have zero problem batting them back to back
    I think LOOGYs are different than LHPs generally. Many LOOGYs are in that role for a reason, and that is to get lefties out. In general, I would imagine that LH relievers are more successful at getting LHHs out than LH starters.

  4. #108
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips Batting 2nd

    three year splits vs LH pitching for both players
    Suck it up cupcake.

  5. #109
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    Re: Brandon Phillips Batting 2nd

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    three year splits vs LH pitching for both players
    Still don't understand. Usually a split is of a particular stat. OBP v. lefties. OPS v. lefties. BA v. lefties. Don't know what stat you are "splitting."

    As for AD's point about Ludwick, as a Red last year Ludwick did hit lefties extremely well, .937 OPS, and would be ideal to "split" the lefties. He also hit lefties better than righties in 2011, his San Diego/Pittsburgh year. So his relative ineffectiveness againt lefties is historical, not current. (Unusually, Brandon did not hit lefties well last year BTW.)

    To me, while these theories of lineup construction are interesting, I think the expected Reds' lineup is fine with the single exception that Phillips doesn't walk and hits into a lot of DPs. I don't think there's a prototype second place hitter on the ballclub, so Brandon will have to adjust, the Reds will have to make a trade for a two hole hitter, maybe Frazier or Cozart gets a try, or most likely we just grin and bear it.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-21-2013 at 03:44 PM.

  6. #110
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    Re: Brandon Phillips Batting 2nd

    News flash -- article by Gary Schatz Associated Press says Phillips is "embracing the chance to bat lower in the Cincinnati Reds' order."

    Implication -- Cozart stay in two hole, Phillips hits sixth. At least that's how I read it.

  7. #111
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips Batting 2nd

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    News flash -- article by Gary Schatz Associated Press says Phillips is "embracing the chance to bat lower in the Cincinnati Reds' order."

    Implication -- Cozart stay in two hole, Phillips hits sixth. At least that's how I read it.
    Part one: good.
    Part two: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

  8. #112
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips Batting 2nd

    Cozart batting second.

    This is why we can't have nice things!
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  9. #113
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips Batting 2nd

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    News flash -- article by Gary Schatz Associated Press says Phillips is "embracing the chance to bat lower in the Cincinnati Reds' order."

    Implication -- Cozart stay in two hole, Phillips hits sixth. At least that's how I read it.
    Huh?

    "The player that will benefit the most with Choo here is Brandon Phillips," general manager Walt Jocketty said. "He has been all over the lineup and has been great about it, but we think his best spot in the order is second."
    http://bigstory.ap.org/article/reds-...t-lower-lineup

  10. #114
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    Re: Brandon Phillips Batting 2nd

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Huh?
    The earlier version of this story was much shorter and didn't include Jocketty's quote.

    The fuller version of the article contains Walt's comment so you have to think Brandon will indeed bat second.

    Without Walt's quote, one wouldn't assume hitting "lower in the order" means second. I didn't take it to mean Brandon second.

    In any event, Walt is the boss so there it is.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-21-2013 at 06:40 PM.

  11. #115
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Batting all the lefties in a row on this team doesn't make sense to me. We have too many players who feast on LHP for that. Phillips and Ludwick both demolish lefties, so that makes the opposing team either have to roll the dice and let their LHP face the lefty killers or have to waste pitchers.

    The balanced lineup also neutralizes LHP starters, who can sort of settle into a groove pitching against several lefty batters in a row.

    Spreading them makes so much more sense than putting them all in a row. Benefits every hitter.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  12. #116
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips Batting 2nd

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Batting all the lefties in a row on this team doesn't make sense to me. We have too many players who feast on LHP for that. Phillips and Ludwick both demolish lefties, so that makes the opposing team either have to roll the dice and let their LHP face the lefty killers or have to waste pitchers.

    The balanced lineup also neutralizes LHP starters, who can sort of settle into a groove pitching against several lefty batters in a row.

    Spreading them makes so much more sense than putting them all in a row. Benefits every hitter.
    The team will face 75% RHP.

    If you want to move some guys around vs LH starters, ok, but against RHP I'd go with the three LBH every time.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  13. #117
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    The team will face 75% RHP.

    If you want to move some guys around vs LH starters, ok, but against RHP I'd go with the three LBH every time.
    That's only a very small part of the consideration. Removing the opposing team's ability to stack its pitching against us, or giving our hitters who turn into 900+ OPS bats against lefties more opportunities to hit against them pretty clearly outweighs the advantage of just giving Jay Bruce a handful more PA over a season.

    It also benefits all the LHH who would end up facing far fewer LOOGYs in critical spots.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  14. #118
    Member smixsell's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips Batting 2nd

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Lets hope Brandon will "embrace his chance" to bat second. (more walks and singles, less HRs and DPs)

  15. #119
    Member smixsell's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips Batting 2nd

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    The team will face 75% RHP.

    If you want to move some guys around vs LH starters, ok, but against RHP I'd go with the three LBH every time.
    Agree totally---with the excpetion of I'd like BP in the two hole and Jay in the cleanup spot assuming BP can make the necessary adjustments---as ideally I'd like Jay protecting Joey. If BP can't adjust to the 2 hole, then I have no problem with 3 lefties 1-2-3 against a RH starter.

  16. #120
    Member smixsell's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips Batting 2nd

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    That's only a very small part of the consideration. Removing the opposing team's ability to stack its pitching against us, or giving our hitters who turn into 900+ OPS bats against lefties more opportunities to hit against them pretty clearly outweighs the advantage of just giving Jay Bruce a handful more PA over a season.

    It also benefits all the LHH who would end up facing far fewer LOOGYs in critical spots.
    That's not the entirety of the gain though. Stacking the good LH bats at the top of the order guarantees that the opposing RH starter will have to "run the guantlet" of our fierce lefties at least twice per game (unless he gets knocked out before the 4th--which is good for us any way you slice it) and often thee times per game. I'll take that "bird in the hand" against the opponent's RH starter any day over worrying about potential vulnerability to his LOOGY.
    Last edited by smixsell; 02-21-2013 at 07:23 PM.

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