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Thread: CF Defense, is it that important?

  1. #46
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by lidspinner View Post
    Doug....how do you see LaMarre working out? Do you think he will end up in one of the corners? I have read some good stuff on him and talked to a few scouts who love the kid.....they say he is just missing on being consistent......what if he turns out to be a stud, what do we then do? Can he play LF in a few years when Luddy is gone?
    I ask because I was listening to a podcast last year from BP and one of their guys was very high on him.....they loved his bat and loved his jump off the ball and said they could see him making a very fast climb to the big leagues.....of course that climb did not happen last year but it could this year. What do we di if that climb does happen this year. he is getting older and its time for him to either put it together or not....
    A lot of scouts I have talked to question how he was a second round pick. They all love his defense and speed, but every last one of them is a big skeptic of his bat. I am not that down on his bat, but I also think it is a center field bat, not a "weak" left field type of bat. He needs to (and reportedly has) re-work his swing that he was using for the most part of 2012. It will never generate any kind of power. If he can add a few more home runs to his game, he has a chance to be more than a back up.

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  3. #47
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Choo obviously wont be Stubbs in center but he still has very good speed and a CANNON for an arm (much stronger than Stubbs) so if people do get possibly an extra base hit they'll think twice before running on him. This outfield is gonna possibly set a team record on throwing people out trying to advance with Bruce and Choo

  4. #48
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    First I wanna say that you guys rock, I recently joined Old Red Guard from the Sun Deck and impressed how you guys know your stuff.

    Ok, I've changed my tune alittle bit. CF defense is important but I feel like it's still being blown out of proportion. It would be nice to see how well Stubbs played defense in Cleveland and Choo in GAB. If there's enough data, it could show us a more clearer prediciton of what to expect.

    Another thought, Bruce in centerfield. It makes sense to me. He seems much more primed and better suited to know the outfield of GAB. Why hasn't the Red's brass brought that up when I hear multiple analyst mention it.

  5. #49
    Member mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    ^Welcome to ORG. The topic of Bruce to CF has been brought up and even addressed by Baker/Jocketty. They're basically going to use ST as a proving ground of sorts when it comes to CF. The job is Choo's to lose, but if he is really terrible out there, then they admit the next option is to flip Choo and Bruce.

    -Matt

  6. #50
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    The Yankees/Bluejays game is on mlb.tv and they said during pregame that the Yanks are planning to move Granderson to left field presumably to allow Gardner to take over in CF. They seem interested in CF defense.

    BTW, there is zero controversy- Ichiro will go into the hall as a Mariner. In fact he should already be inducted. There is no point to wait. That said, he looks natural in pinstripes. Youkilis in pinstripes on the other hand? He looks like Benedict Arnold without the powdered wig.


    Update: The Granderson experiment lasted less than an inning. He got beaned and is out 10 weeks with a fractured bone.
    Last edited by jojo; 02-24-2013 at 03:12 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #51
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    The Reds defense so far has done a great job so far in 2013. The fact that everyone else is so good seems to give them luxury of having Choo in CF. They lead the league in Total Zone and are 4th in MLB in fielding percentage. Pretty amazing when your CF leads the team in errors.

    Fielding is easy to take for granted but just look at what problems it has caused for Nationals with Desmond and Zimmerman being shaky so far.

  8. #52
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    I keep reading/hearing how one of the Red's biggest concern/weakness is center field defense. I wonder how important is CF defense anyways?

    I haven't seen stats that are useful in comparing the impact but love to see it if anyone here could break it down. I personally see it as a negligible difference. Maybe we lose one game because Choo or Bruce can't run down a game-winning blooper. If CF defense is our biggest weakness then the NL should start worrying big time.
    In simple terms, the difference between having a very good defensive CF and a very poor one is probably on the order of 3-4 wins or so. The difference between a merely above average one and below average one is more like 1-2 wins.

    Defensively speaking, Stubbs is probably ~2 wins better than Choo.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #53
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Choo has played in 3 stadiums as a CF in the NL. Very small sample rate to judge him as a stud or a dud as a CF

  10. #54
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Stubbs has graded out as a +4 CFer in the majors. In order for Stubbs to be 2 wins better than Choo, Choo (see what I did there?) would have to be just a little better than a -20 defender..i.e. the worst defensive starting CFer in the majors on any given year.

    I estimated he might be a -10 run defensive CFer before spring training. To me that still sounds about right.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #55
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Stubbs has graded out as a +4 CFer in the majors. In order for Stubbs to be 2 wins better than Choo, Choo (see what I did there?) would have to be just a little better than a -20 defender..i.e. the worst defensive starting CFer in the majors on any given year.

    I estimated he might be a -10 run defensive CFer before spring training. To me that still sounds about right.
    I would LOVE to see home/road splits for Stubbs defensive values. GABP limits his best defensive tool: Speed/Range. It limits his chances of "out of zone" plays.

  12. #56
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    He'll probably be all right but I don't mind telling you I'm going to be chewing my nails when they play in Wrigley.
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

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  13. #57
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Choo's UZR (small sample) is horrible. Is that mostly a function of his play in St. Louis?

  14. #58
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Choo's UZR (small sample) is horrible. Is that mostly a function of his play in St. Louis?
    Roughly half of the magnitude of his UZR is due to errors. The rest is due to range issues (routes etc). He gets value back with his arm. Though its small sample size theater, it all kinda jives.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #59
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Choo's UZR (small sample) is horrible. Is that mostly a function of his play in St. Louis?
    No idea, but small sample UZR is worthless regardless.

    Anyway seemed to me the bigger point of those two plays in St. Louis was that Choo got to those balls. If he can make the right reads and cover the ground, then he should be fine.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  16. #60
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    No idea, but small sample UZR is worthless regardless.

    Anyway seemed to me the bigger point of those two plays in St. Louis was that Choo got to those balls. If he can make the right reads and cover the ground, then he should be fine.
    That's what I was asking for. I know it means nothing, but something made his UZR take a big hit. I was curious if it was the botched plays (which I'm not too worried about) or is his range severely lacking (which I would not think is the case).

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