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Thread: CF Defense, is it that important?

  1. #31
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    What is the correlation going from hits to runs just in general?

    For the sake of this discussion the 26 extra hits probably would not include home runs, unless you figure on one of them being a home run robbed by Stubbs that Choo couldn't get. Yet you may figure on there being more doubles and triples because anything to the side of Choo that he can't get is headed to the wall. I don't know. How many bases are we giving the average hit of those 26 hits?
    1 play generally equates to .7 to .8 runs.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #32
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I don't think that one hit per week would equate to "20 runs" or "2 wins" if applied at a team level.
    Looks like youve learned something new then because it pretty much does.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  4. #33
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Looks like youve learned something new then because it pretty much does.
    Last year the average MLB team scored .5 runs for every hit, exactly. Not sure how I get to .7-.8, especially if HRs are taken out.

  5. #34
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Last year the average MLB team scored .5 runs for every hit, exactly. Not sure how I get to .7-.8, especially if HRs are taken out.
    You could average the impact of a play over all base-out states. You could even read a little bit on the subject. Admitting you don't know how to get there is the first step....that's encouraging at least.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #35
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    You could average the impact of a play over all base-out states. You could even read a little bit on the subject. Admitting you don't know how to get there is the first step....that's encouraging at least.
    What's the new era version of "get off my lawn"? I think we need to come up with something for that.

  7. #36
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Let's just assume that one ball a week that Stubbs would have gotten now falls. Just one a week. That is 26 hits. A standard break down of those means 20 singles, 5 doubles and a triple. Assuming we take defense out of it and just were to add that to offense, that is the difference between hitting .250/.300/.400 over 600 PA's and hitting .286/.333/.448.

    Center field defense is incredibly important. Not only will it give up more hits, it is also going to directly lead to your starters having fewer innings because they are going to have to throw more pitches.

    We are still the favorites, and should be, but defense in center is very important and right now, the Reds stink in center when it comes to defense.
    Lets see Choo out there for 1 game at least before we say he stinks... I dunno why everyone thinks he is gonna suck, he was good in right and GABP is freaking tiny
    Go Redlegs!!

  8. #37
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Using this handy-dandy Runs Created Calculator; an additional 20 singles, 5 doubles and 1 triple would yield 17 mores run, using the Cincinnati Reds teams stats from 2012. How accurate is this RCC? Using the stats from the entire NL, it calculates that 11123 runs will be scored. The actual amount was 10929. This difference of 194 runs is about 1.7%. If you multiply 17 runs by .017 you get around 3/10ths of a run. So, 20 runs seems perfectly reasonable to me.

    http://www.had2know.com/sports/runs-...alculator.html
    A summer watching a bad Reds' team, is still a pretty good summer.

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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    He won't be great in center field, but he will still get the job done. I don't think it will really have too much of an impact and can see the Reds bringing in someone else in late game situations. But I can already vision it now.. Redszone blowing Choo up for missing a catch and blowing the game.

  10. #39
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Let's just assume that one ball a week that Stubbs would have gotten now falls. Just one a week. That is 26 hits. A standard break down of those means 20 singles, 5 doubles and a triple. Assuming we take defense out of it and just were to add that to offense, that is the difference between hitting .250/.300/.400 over 600 PA's and hitting .286/.333/.448.

    Center field defense is incredibly important. Not only will it give up more hits, it is also going to directly lead to your starters having fewer innings because they are going to have to throw more pitches.

    We are still the favorites, and should be, but defense in center is very important and right now, the Reds stink in center when it comes to defense.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBgGaGUnvA0

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  12. #40
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Joel Luckhaupt was on the radio taking about the difference between Stubbs and Choo. He said that the main difference would be going side to side instead of in and out. To me that says that Choo will be just as good as eliminating singles as Stubbs was but would have more of a problem cutting off balls that get to the gap. Stubbs was very good at tracking down a ball in the gap due to his raw speed, something Choo doesn't have. I think that Choo could be an adequate CF if he is the type of player who gets good jumps on the ball and is able to make sliding catches.

    One thing to take into consideration is that if you have guys in the corner who have above average range that would help Choo out as well in CF. Especially when you have Heisey in LF and Bruce in RF, you have two guys who can cover a lot of ground, giving some help to Choo in the gaps.

    One thing that I haven't really seen mentioned is what the addition of Choo will do to the prospects of Xavier Paul. Can the Reds afford to go into the season with 5 corner out fielders? Or do they make a move to keep a backup CF on the 25 man roster?

  13. #41
    SERP deep cover ops WebScorpion's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    The Reds should package up Choo, Leake, and a couple decent prospects and talk to Arizona about that kid from Springfield, OH. Adam Eaton! He went to the same high school as Dave Burba. That kid can play center field and hit leadoff...he's the next Mike Trout minus a little power. Well, maybe a lot, but you don't need power to hit leadoff. Eaton is going to be what we always hoped Stubbs could turn into. There, I said it.

    "Okay you guys, pair up in threes!" --Yogi Berra

  14. #42
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by WebScorpion View Post
    The Reds should package up Choo, Leake, and a couple decent prospects and talk to Arizona about that kid from Springfield, OH. Adam Eaton! He went to the same high school as Dave Burba. That kid can play center field and hit leadoff...he's the next Mike Trout minus a little power. Well, maybe a lot, but you don't need power to hit leadoff. Eaton is going to be what we always hoped Stubbs could turn into. There, I said it.
    Nah. Eaton won't be the 20-25 HR guy that Stubbs could have been. Eaton is probably more of a 10-15 HR guy. I would still love to have him though.

  15. #43
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Nah. Eaton won't be the 20-25 HR guy that Stubbs could have been. Eaton is probably more of a 10-15 HR guy. I would still love to have him though.
    I guess I should have said, "what I had hoped he could be." I always thought Stubbs could change his approach and get on base a lot more but sacrifice a lot of power. Anyway, I agree...Eaton won't be hitting 20 HRs a year, but I would love to have him roaming center field and hitting leadoff. Of course, then what would we do with Billy Hamilton next year?? I'm just glad our discussions are turning toward what to do with our extra talent. A good problem to have.

    "Okay you guys, pair up in threes!" --Yogi Berra

  16. #44
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Nah. Eaton won't be the 20-25 HR guy that Stubbs could have been. Eaton is probably more of a 10-15 HR guy. I would still love to have him though.
    Doug....how do you see LaMarre working out? Do you think he will end up in one of the corners? I have read some good stuff on him and talked to a few scouts who love the kid.....they say he is just missing on being consistent......what if he turns out to be a stud, what do we then do? Can he play LF in a few years when Luddy is gone?
    I ask because I was listening to a podcast last year from BP and one of their guys was very high on him.....they loved his bat and loved his jump off the ball and said they could see him making a very fast climb to the big leagues.....of course that climb did not happen last year but it could this year. What do we di if that climb does happen this year. he is getting older and its time for him to either put it together or not....

  17. #45
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: CF Defense, is it that important?

    Quote Originally Posted by tedies View Post
    Lets see Choo out there for 1 game at least before we say he stinks... I dunno why everyone thinks he is gonna suck, he was good in right and GABP is freaking tiny
    "everyone" thinks he is going to suck out there because he has actually sucked in right field the last two years, hasn't played center in years, isn't uber fast and isn't exactly young anymore. Defenders tend to get worse after the age of 24 by a little bit each year. Choo is approaching 30. Guys simply don't move from the corners to center at that age, for a reason.


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