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View Poll Results: Who is the Reds' #26 prospect for 2013?

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  • Beau Amaral

    0 0%
  • Sean Buckley

    0 0%
  • Jacob Constante

    8 23.53%
  • Carlos Contreras

    2 5.88%
  • Tim Crabbe

    0 0%
  • Brandon Dailey

    0 0%
  • Pedro Diaz

    0 0%
  • Juan Duran

    1 2.94%
  • Josh Fellhauer

    1 2.94%
  • Brodie Greene

    0 0%
  • Drew Hayes

    1 2.94%
  • Jeremy Kivel

    0 0%
  • Chris Manno

    1 2.94%
  • Travis Mattair

    0 0%
  • Luke Moran

    0 0%
  • Jonathan Moscot

    0 0%
  • Curtis Partch

    0 0%
  • Daniel Paula

    0 0%
  • Juan Perez

    0 0%
  • Radhames Quezada

    0 0%
  • Josh Ravin

    0 0%
  • Sal Romano

    4 11.76%
  • Gabriel Rosa

    1 2.94%
  • Carlos Sanchez

    0 0%
  • Steve Selsky

    1 2.94%
  • Juan Silva

    0 0%
  • Bryson Smith

    11 32.35%
  • Pedro Villareal

    0 0%
  • Zach Vincej

    2 5.88%
  • Other (Please Name)

    1 2.94%
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Thread: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

  1. #16
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    Agreed.

    I can understand ranking first rounders (or guys who get first round size bonuses) ahead of experienced minor leaguers based solely on raw talent, but beyond that I want to see them perform against other professionals before I rank them. Constante got third round money after going unsigned as a 16-17-18 year old. It's great that he has matured into a damn good prospect, but I don't view him as an elite prospect who deserves to be ranked over guys who have already proven themselves in the professional ranks.
    What proof is out there for Bryson Smith? That his results indicate that he might make it as a 4th outfielder? How does that hold more value than a guy who could be a major league starting pitcher? Bryson Smith has shown enough warts already that you can say that he won't be a starting outfielder on a playoff team. Constante has shown no such warts and has all sorts of upside.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    What proof is out there for Bryson Smith? That his results indicate that he might make it as a 4th outfielder? How does that hold more value than a guy who could be a major league starting pitcher? Bryson Smith has shown enough warts already that you can say that he won't be a starting outfielder on a playoff team. Constante has shown no such warts and has all sorts of upside.
    Because Bryson Smith has a 50% chance of being a decent fourth outfielder. Constante has about a 2% chance of being a major league starting pitcher.

    Your point about Smith showing his warts is exactly the reason I don't like ranking kids who have yet to play a single inning of pro ball. They haven't had the opportunity to show us their warts yet (and rest assured, there are warts). We've seen enough of Smith to know what he can (and can't) do. We have no idea what Constante can (and can't) do. I prefer the known to the unknown.
    Last edited by Steve4192; 02-22-2013 at 11:23 AM.

  4. #18
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

    I went Smith here as well, though Romano, Rosa, and Constante are pretty close behind as well. I'd have Smith higher than LaMarre on my list if not for his seeming inability to take a walk this past season; we've seen too much of LaMarre and too little of the power potential he had coming out of college... Smith has made better use of his tools to date, and his problem is definitely fixable.

  5. #19
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    How does a potential 4th outfielder have more value than a guy who could be a starting pitcher in the major leagues?

    I know the burnout rate is higher for starting pitchers than for outfielders due to an assortment of arm injuries, but isn't that more evidence that you need to stockpile those arms due to the attrition rate?

    A guy like Bryson Smith just doesn't seem to have much upside.

    As for Constante vs. Romano, how can you compare a 23rd round pitcher who pitched only 64 innings of pro ball poorly to a guy who just got a $700,000 bonus and has a good fastball, potential plus slider and a developing change-up? Doesn't he also get a bump for being a lefty (ie positional scarcity)? I guess Romano's peripherals weren't as bad as his ERA, but certainly 64 innings of a 5.32 ERA in rookie ball doesn't count as a significant experience advantage for Romano.

    I think we are really missing the boat with our rankings of Constante and Reynoso on our prospect list.
    Maybe Doug could enlighten us, but I think Romano's supposed to have a good arm. I don't know how he compares to Constante, but they might be similar as far as upside.

    I completely agree on the other point though. I could probably fly anywhere in Arizona right now and swing around one of Dusty's toothpicks at arms length and poke at least three back up outfielders. Unless it's someone like Heisey that brings a good bat off the bench, those guys don't provide anything you can't pick off the scrap heap in the offseason.

  6. #20
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    How does a potential 4th outfielder have more value than a guy who could be a starting pitcher in the major leagues?

    I know the burnout rate is higher for starting pitchers than for outfielders due to an assortment of arm injuries, but isn't that more evidence that you need to stockpile those arms due to the attrition rate?

    A guy like Bryson Smith just doesn't seem to have much upside.

    As for Constante vs. Romano, how can you compare a 23rd round pitcher who pitched only 64 innings of pro ball poorly to a guy who just got a $700,000 bonus and has a good fastball, potential plus slider and a developing change-up? Doesn't he also get a bump for being a lefty (ie positional scarcity)? I guess Romano's peripherals weren't as bad as his ERA, but certainly 64 innings of a 5.32 ERA in rookie ball doesn't count as a significant experience advantage for Romano.

    I think we are really missing the boat with our rankings of Constante and Reynoso on our prospect list.
    He was a 23-rounder who just happened to get a 450,000 signing bonus. He went so low because teams must have been convinced he was going to college. He was not your typical 23rd rounder.

    Here is a high school scouting report on Romano. (Not too cheesy)

    Sal Romano, RHP, Southington (Conn.)
    Hometown: Southington, Conn.
    Height: 6-foot-4
    Weight: 220 lbs
    Bats: Right
    College: Tennessee
    Scouts Take: "Sal's another one of those big body high school kids weve been blessed with this year. His delivery has some work to do, but hes shown great velocity on his fastball, up to 93. The feel for the spin on his breaking ball is advanced for his age. His signability demands may push him down in the draft this year, but hes definitely one to follow."
    Zero chance the Reds miss the playoffs!

  7. #21
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    How does a potential 4th outfielder have more value than a guy who could be a starting pitcher in the major leagues?
    At the ultimate upside, he doesn't. But I think Bryson Smith has at least a 60% chance to actually be a Major Leaguer. Constante is what, 5% at this point? At best?

    A guy like Bryson Smith just doesn't seem to have much upside.
    You are right. There isn't a ton of upside there. But there is a relatively high floor.

    As for Constante vs. Romano, how can you compare a 23rd round pitcher who pitched only 64 innings of pro ball poorly to a guy who just got a $700,000 bonus and has a good fastball, potential plus slider and a developing change-up? Doesn't he also get a bump for being a lefty (ie positional scarcity)? I guess Romano's peripherals weren't as bad as his ERA, but certainly 64 innings of a 5.32 ERA in rookie ball doesn't count as a significant experience advantage for Romano.
    Yes, Romano was a 23rd rounder, but he also got $450,000 to put his name on his contract. He was a projected 2nd-3rd rounder who fell.

    Romano has an incredible similar scouting report as Constante (but with a curve instead of slider), but from the right side. And we know for a fact that he can throw the pitches for strikes. As for his ERA.... it is the Pioneer League. And he was 18. He was the youngest pitcher in the league. That is a very significant advantage for Romano over a guy who hasn't thrown a single pitch against a professional hitter. And no, being left handed doesn't give someone a boost for me. Your job is to get hitters out. The arm you throw with doesn't matter.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 02-22-2013 at 02:21 PM.

  8. #22
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

    Steve and doug,

    I have absolutely no idea where you are coming up with your % chances that Smith and Constante will make the bigs. Where does 50-60% come from?

    Also, I completely disagree that Constante only has a 2-5% chance of pitching in the bigs. I don't have any stats to support this (and likely neither do you), but I would believe that lefties who throw 92-94, with a potential plus slider and a developing change who get paid $700,000+ K bonuses have at least a double digit % chance to make the bigs (this has to be a pretty small sample size), especially if they have never suffered a major arm injury and if they do in the future, they have the most advanced surgery procedures to get them back into shape.

    Either way, why would you want decent chance for a cheap bat off the bench who will never be much above replacement level, when you could have a guy who has a lower chance to have a much higher impact (like superdude says, Bryson Smith's are a dime a dozen)? I guess if you truly think he only has a 2-5% chance of cracking the bigs, that is your answer. However, I truly believe Constante has a much higher chance of cracking the bigs than 2-5% and if he does get to the bigs, he will do much more than Bryson Smith will.

    There are all sorts of Bryson Smith types that are free agents every year for cheap. If Constante hits his ceiling, he could be the kind of guy who doesn't make it to FA, because he is one of the most valuable guys on your team.

  9. #23
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    At the ultimate upside, he doesn't. But I think Bryson Smith has at least a 60% chance to actually be a Major Leaguer. Constante is what, 5% at this point? At best?


    You are right. There isn't a ton of upside there. But there is a relatively high floor.
    So a guy that has a 60% chance of being negligibly useful and a 40% chance of being of no worth at all is better than a guy that has a 5% chance of being an impact starting pitcher? I haven't seen Smith, so maybe I'm misunderstanding what his upside is, but the base principle seems questionable to me.

  10. #24
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    Steve and doug,

    I have absolutely no idea where you are coming up with your % chances that Smith and Constante will make the bigs. Where does 50-60% come from?

    Also, I completely disagree that Constante only has a 2-5% chance of pitching in the bigs. I don't have any stats to support this (and likely neither do you), but I would believe that lefties who throw 92-94, with a potential plus slider and a developing change who get paid $700,000+ K bonuses have at least a double digit % chance to make the bigs (this has to be a pretty small sample size), especially if they have never suffered a major arm injury and if they do in the future, they have the most advanced surgery procedures to get them back into shape.

    Either way, why would you want decent chance for a cheap bat off the bench who will never be much above replacement level, when you could have a guy who has a lower chance to have a much higher impact (like superdude says, Bryson Smith's are a dime a dozen)? I guess if you truly think he only has a 2-5% chance of cracking the bigs, that is your answer. However, I truly believe Constante has a much higher chance of cracking the bigs than 2-5% and if he does get to the bigs, he will do much more than Bryson Smith will.

    There are all sorts of Bryson Smith types that are free agents every year for cheap. If Constante hits his ceiling, he could be the kind of guy who doesn't make it to FA, because he is one of the most valuable guys on your team.
    I absolutely pulled those numbers out of my butt. With that said, A guy who has yet to throw a pitch as a professional yet has a very small chance at becoming a big leaguer, much less an impact one. A guy like Bryson Smith, who can play defense at every outfield spot and has hit .322 through half a season in AA for his career through age 23, probably has a relatively decent shot at seeing big league time. He has 71 strikeouts in 519 career plate appearances. 13.8% is in the Brandon Phillips range for contact. Pretty darn good. So, he is a guy who can play left, center and right field. He has some speed, so he can pinch run. He is a high contact hitter, so you can bring him off of the bench in a "make contact" situation as a pinch hitter. He just has what guys want for their bench guys.

    Yes, if Constante hits his ceiling, he could be a good #3 pitcher. But what if he goes out and walks 7 batters per 9 innings this year and has no control with batters in the box? We don't know that he isn't going to do that because he hasn't shown he is any better than that at this point.

    For me, it is about weight risk and reward. With Smith, there is very little risk, but also not much reward. With Constante, there is a solid, but not great reward (he isn't Robert Stephenson or Billy Hamilton type without improving his current "stuff" dramatically). But the risk is that he never makes it out of rookie ball and turns into a lesser hyped Michael Ynoa who signed for $4.25 million bucks in 2009 and has a grand total of 39.2 innings in his minor league career with 29 walks and 36 strikeouts.

    With a guy like Constante, who was a big, but not huge signing, I am taking another handful of guys ahead of him who have proven things. He isn't a Yorman Rodriguez type of international signing who is a true 5 tool MVP type of guy if he reaches his ceiling. Smith is one of those guys. If I were ranking guys simply on pure upside, my list would look a whole lot different than it does currently.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 02-22-2013 at 04:33 PM.

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    Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

    [QUOTE=Edd Roush;2806879]How does a potential 4th outfielder have more value than a guy who could be a starting pitcher in the major leagues?

    I know the burnout rate is higher for starting pitchers than for outfielders due to an assortment of arm injuries, but isn't that more evidence that you need to stockpile those arms due to the attrition rate?

    A guy like Bryson Smith just doesn't seem to have much upside.

    As for Constante vs. Romano, how can you compare a 23rd round pitcher who pitched only 64 innings of pro ball poorly to a guy who just got a $700,000 bonus and has a good fastball, potential plus slider and a developing change-up? Doesn't he also get a bump for being a lefty (ie positional scarcity)? I guess Romano's peripherals weren't as bad as his ERA, but certainly 64 innings of a 5.32 ERA in rookie ball doesn't count as a significant experience advantage for Romano.

    I think we are really missing the boat with our rankings of Constante and Reynoso on our prospect list.
    Last edited by j_m_t_us; 02-22-2013 at 04:41 PM.

  12. #26
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

    Smith doesnt have any upside? How did you come to that assumption? Cause he was a late round pick? The guys a pretty good player and should be ahead of many already picked!

  13. #27
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by j_m_t_us View Post
    Smith doesnt have any upside? How did you come to that assumption? Cause he was a late round pick? The guys a pretty good player and should be ahead of many already picked!
    As a guy voting for Bryson Smith, I will say this: His upside isn't close to the same for a guy like Constante.

  14. #28
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I absolutely pulled those numbers out of my butt. With that said, A guy who has yet to throw a pitch as a professional yet has a very small chance at becoming a big leaguer, much less an impact one. A guy like Bryson Smith, who can play defense at every outfield spot and has hit .322 through half a season in AA for his career through age 23, probably has a relatively decent shot at seeing big league time. He has 71 strikeouts in 519 career plate appearances. 13.8% is in the Brandon Phillips range for contact. Pretty darn good. So, he is a guy who can play left, center and right field. He has some speed, so he can pinch run. He is a high contact hitter, so you can bring him off of the bench in a "make contact" situation as a pinch hitter. He just has what guys want for their bench guys.

    Yes, if Constante hits his ceiling, he could be a good #3 pitcher. But what if he goes out and walks 7 batters per 9 innings this year and has no control with batters in the box? We don't know that he isn't going to do that because he hasn't shown he is any better than that at this point.

    For me, it is about weight risk and reward. With Smith, there is very little risk, but also not much reward. With Constante, there is a solid, but not great reward (he isn't Robert Stephenson or Billy Hamilton type without improving his current "stuff" dramatically). But the risk is that he never makes it out of rookie ball and turns into a lesser hyped Michael Ynoa who signed for $4.25 million bucks in 2009 and has a grand total of 39.2 innings in his minor league career with 29 walks and 36 strikeouts.

    With a guy like Constante, who was a big, but not huge signing, I am taking another handful of guys ahead of him who have proven things. He isn't a Yorman Rodriguez type of international signing who is a true 5 tool MVP type of guy if he reaches his ceiling. Smith is one of those guys. If I were ranking guys simply on pure upside, my list would look a whole lot different than it does currently.
    What value does a low-risk, low-reward guy give you? I just don't understand what value Bryson Smith brings that you could not get cheaply in free agency. There are many guys who can play left, center and right field. There are also plenty of guys have some speed who can pinch run. There are also high contact hitting back-up outfeilders who a coach can bring him off of the bench in a "make contact" situation as a pinch hitter. Like you said "He just has what guys want for their bench guys." What is special about a bench guy? What potential surplus value does a bench guy bring to the Reds?

    The Reds have several years to figure out if Constante can throw strikes. They will give him as many chances as they can to reach that ceiling of a #3 starter. #3 starters do not grow on trees. They get paid eight figure salaries in free agency and only then to multi-year deals compared to the bench guys who get 1 year, 1 million dollar deals. Wouldn't you rather have a medium-risk, high reward prospect, than a low-risk, low-reward prospect?

    And yes, I know Michael Inoa did not make it. That being said, you know the exception does not make the rule. Inoa had a golden arm that didn't work out. Inoa's lack of success has nothing to do with Constante's chances. Constante has a lower chance of making the bigs, but if he does make the bigs, he has a much greater chance of providing surplus value to the Reds.

  15. #29
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    And yes, I know Michael Inoa did not make it. That being said, you know the exception does not make the rule.
    I would argue that, when talking about teenage pitchers no pro experience, guys like Ynoa ARE the rule. The guys who make it are the exceptions.

  16. #30
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #26 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    I would argue that, when talking about teenage pitchers no pro experience, guys like Ynoa ARE the rule. The guys who make it are the exceptions.
    I agree that I did not word that properly. Even in my estimation, Constante has a 10-20% chance of being a #3 starter in the bigs. Clearly 10-20% is the exception.


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