Turn Off Ads?
Page 3 of 7 FirstFirst 1234567 LastLast
Results 31 to 45 of 91

Thread: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

  1. #31
    Member VR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Vancouver, Wa
    Posts
    8,588

    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    It seems like a Red hasn't stolen 3rd base since Barry and ED were the kings of it. I am looking forward to the havoc that will be wreaked by one Mr. Hamilton.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #32
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    21,095

    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Because guys on first are already in scoring position when Votto is up.
    2012: Votto had 14 HR, 0 triples
    2011: Votto had 29HR, 3 triples.
    Let's be optimistic and say Joey repeats 2011 in 2013

    Let's take a simple scenerio.. Assume the leadoff guy has an OBP 350 (maybe that's too optimistic). For simplicity, we will assume 600 plate appearances for both Joey and the leadoff guy. We will also ignore cases where the inning ends between Joey and the leadoff guy..

    Seems like of Joey's 29 HR and 3 triples (total 32), the leadoff guy will only be on base for about 11 of them.. The other 199 times the leadoff guy is on base, he's not automatically in scoring postion if he's on 1b. Yes, I am ignoring when the leadoff guy gets an extra base hit, but your point that "anyone on base is automatically in scoring position for Votto" is flawed.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  4. Likes:

    Caveman Techie (02-22-2013)

  5. #33
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    8,049

    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    2012: Votto had 14 HR, 0 triples
    2011: Votto had 29HR, 3 triples.
    Let's be optimistic and say Joey repeats 2011 in 2013

    Let's take a simple scenerio.. Assume the leadoff guy has an OBP 350 (maybe that's too optimistic). For simplicity, we will assume 600 plate appearances for both Joey and the leadoff guy. We will also ignore cases where the inning ends between Joey and the leadoff guy..

    Seems like of Joey's 29 HR and 3 triples (total 32), the leadoff guy will only be on base for about 11 of them.. The other 199 times the leadoff guy is on base, he's not automatically in scoring postion if he's on 1b. Yes, I am ignoring when the leadoff guy gets an extra base hit, but your point that "anyone on base is automatically in scoring position for Votto" is flawed.
    That's what I was thinking. I was gonna break down the numbers like you did this weekend. Though I would be inclined to include doubles.

    I think the result is gonna be something to the effect that runners on first are in "scoring position-lite" when Votto is up. If we are talking about that one at bat, I think an average hitter plates a runner from second fairly more often than Votto does a runner on first.

  6. #34
    OCS Prez Cant Touch This's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Michigan
    Posts
    638

    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    That's what I was thinking. I was gonna break down the numbers like you did this weekend. Though I would be inclined to include doubles.

    I think the result is gonna be something to the effect that runners on first are in "scoring position-lite" when Votto is up. If we are talking about that one at bat, I think an average hitter plates a runner from second fairly more often than Votto does a runner on first.
    I think you have to include doubles...Hamilton will likely score from first base on most doubles. However, I still disagree with the argument of the leadoff hitter not stealing bases in front of Votto.

    In truth, Hamilton would be stealing bases in front of the #2 hitter first. As much as I value Votto's bat, there's still a greater-than 60% chance that Votto won't drive home a runner from first (or second) base. Why take Phillips or whoever is hitting second out of the equation? I have no problem with Phillips driving home the leadoff hitter instead of Votto, or at least moving him to third where the chances of Votto driving him home increase exponentially. Someone else can calculate those odds...
    A flute with no holes is not a flute. A doughnut with no holes is a danish. -- Zen Philosopher Basho

    www.OnCampusSports.com -- college sports covered by college students

  7. #35
    Member klw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    New England
    Posts
    6,510

    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    The argument against stealing in front of Votto is that it opens up first and Votto would just be walked. This is reduced if Bruce and/or Ludwick is next and is hitting well. What may really reduce this, however, is if Hamilton also takes third. I don't know why but it seems that guys are less likely to get walked with a runner on third that when the runner is on 2nd but I could be wrong. In theory you would really want the lineup (Post-Choo) to be:

    BHAM
    Hannigan
    Votto
    Lud
    Bruce
    Frazier
    Phillips
    Cozy
    Price/Chapman/Latos /Cueto/ Leake

    This way you have the extra bat control/ contact abilities of Hanigan in place. Though if Mes is in the lineup, flip the C and Phillips.

  8. #36
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    8,103

    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    In theory you would really want the lineup (Post-Choo) to be:

    BHAM
    Hannigan
    Votto
    Lud
    Bruce
    Frazier
    Phillips
    Cozy
    Price/Chapman/Latos /Cueto/ Leake
    I assume that's David Price in the rotation... or does our pitching coach take an unexpected late-career detour?
    "I’ll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. That’s just how I do things.” -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  9. #37
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Madison, MS
    Posts
    813

    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    The argument against stealing in front of Votto is that it opens up first and Votto would just be walked. This is reduced if Bruce and/or Ludwick is next and is hitting well. What may really reduce this, however, is if Hamilton also takes third. I don't know why but it seems that guys are less likely to get walked with a runner on third that when the runner is on 2nd but I could be wrong. In theory you would really want the lineup (Post-Choo) to be:

    BHAM
    Hannigan
    Votto
    Lud
    Bruce
    Frazier
    Phillips
    Cozy
    Price/Chapman/Latos /Cueto/ Leake

    This way you have the extra bat control/ contact abilities of Hanigan in place. Though if Mes is in the lineup, flip the C and Phillips.
    Billy will not bat second... if he is at the front of the order, he will lead off. He will run during the AB of the next hitter. Simply put, the issue of "stealing second in front of Votto" is only an issue when BP flies out on the first or second pitch, because Billy will be running in the first three pitches to BP.

    Why? Because he can.. and because BP is a DP machine (69 since 2008 is way more than anyone else except Ludwick who is at 66).
    If they think he will go, the 1B has to stay close to first, and when a runner does go, either the 2B or SS cheat towards second... that opens up some holes in the infield defense so that some of BPs DP balls can sneak through.

    If BP is the #2 hitter next year with BHam leading off... I hope he works on his bunting skills. BP hits the ball pretty hard, so the INF has to respect that and play deep. That plus the defenders focusing on BHam leads me to believe that he would have a big increase in success to bunt for a hit.
    I also think that Billy rounds second faster than anyone I have ever seen.
    If BP bunts to the 3B side (easier for a right hander) and Hamilton was going on the pitch, he will be hitting second at full speed when the 3B is throwing to first. I simply do not think the 1B can catch and get the throw to third and the tag down before Billy gets there.

  10. #38
    Member klw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    New England
    Posts
    6,510

    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I assume that's David Price in the rotation... or does our pitching coach take an unexpected late-career detour?
    I wondered if anyone would catch that Bailey + X for Price move.

  11. #39
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Lebanon
    Posts
    7,067

    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I'd rather Hamilton hit at the bottom of the lineup when the time comed. Don't really want him stealing bases ahead of Votto.

    YMMV
    Baseclogger.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  12. #40
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Bedford, KY
    Posts
    8,992

    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by Brisco View Post
    Billy will not bat second... if he is at the front of the order, he will lead off. He will run during the AB of the next hitter. Simply put, the issue of "stealing second in front of Votto" is only an issue when BP flies out on the first or second pitch, because Billy will be running in the first three pitches to BP.

    Why? Because he can.. and because BP is a DP machine (69 since 2008 is way more than anyone else except Ludwick who is at 66).
    Because he can... and because it will improve the Reds' chances of scoring.

    Hamilton in scoring position improves that, as does opposing teams decision to walk Votto in front of Ludwick and Bruce.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  13. #41
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    8,103

    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    I wondered if anyone would catch that Bailey + X for Price move.
    Miracles do happen, I suppose. If Hamilton isn't part of the deal, I would assume it would have to be Bailey + Winker, if not Bailey + Stephenson, to land the reigning AL Cy Young winner.
    "I’ll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. That’s just how I do things.” -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  14. #42
    Member klw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    New England
    Posts
    6,510

    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Miracles do happen, I suppose. If Hamilton isn't part of the deal, I would assume it would have to be Bailey + Winker, if not Bailey + Stephenson, to land the reigning AL Cy Young winner.
    Yeah, probably not a match.

  15. #43
    Member membengal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    9,060
    Maybe this is a generational i thing. I grew up watching baseball in the 70s/80s.The guys with the crazy speed were terrifying. They could ruin games and get in pitchers's heads from the outset. Coleman/McGee in st. louis. Raines in Montreal. Henderson in Oakland. Wilson in KC. Etc. nobody in kc, for instance, ever.worried for a second about wilson getting thrown out ahead of george brett. They were too busy focusing on the help he gave brett by being such a terror on the basepaths.

    IF hamilton could reach the wilson level, i would probably cry a little from joy. Rare stuff.

    Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2

  16. Likes:

    Scrap Irony (02-23-2013), westofyou (02-23-2013), _Sir_Charles_ (02-23-2013)

  17. #44
    always ask questions bigredmechanism's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    new jersey
    Posts
    2,236

    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    It seems like a Red hasn't stolen 3rd base since Barry and ED were the kings of it. I am looking forward to the havoc that will be wreaked by one Mr. Hamilton.
    Freel did from time to time.

    My cousin, who doesn't watch any baseball, put a game on when I was over one time. Freel walked or got a basehit. Then stole second. Then stole third. I think he scored on a sac fly.

    My cousin was convinced that Freel must have been the best player in the majors because he scored a big run seemingly single handed, and his reasoning was (and I quote) "that's what you want to do."
    Award Winning Baseball Player

  18. #45
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,500

    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Maybe this is a generational i thing. I grew up watching baseball in the 70s/80s.The guys with the crazy speed were terrifying. They could ruin games and get in pitchers's heads from the outset. Coleman/McGee in st. louis. Raines in Montreal. Henderson in Oakland. Wilson in KC. Etc. nobody in kc, for instance, ever.worried for a second about wilson getting thrown out ahead of george brett. They were too busy focusing on the help he gave brett by being such a terror on the basepaths.

    IF hamilton could reach the wilson level, i would probably cry a little from joy. Rare stuff.

    Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2
    I think it is. Today, we know that OBP is king. In the 70's and 80's we didn't. Outs weren't valued the same way then as they are now. Also, runs were actually more important then (lower run scoring environment, making each run more valuable) than they are now, so the risk was perhaps a little more worth it.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25