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Thread: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

  1. #16
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    "The young Wilson" might sound underwhelming until you realize this is the stat line he put up in 1980:

    .326 / .357 / .421, 230 hits, 133 runs, 15 triples and 79 stolen bases

    If that's who Billy is, the Reds are in really good shape at leadoff!
    That would be awesome if Hamilton's production was close to Wilson's. My comp, though, is Otis Nixon. They share the same career arc (infielders converted to outfield at AAA, fast, not much power) and have the same build. But I'm not one to project the success or failure of a player based on the stats of another player. It'll definitely be interesting seeing what Hamilton can do for himself.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

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  3. #17
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Or Billy Hamilton is already in scoring position when he is on first.
    Yes but we know Hamilton specializes in scoring from pop-ups to the infield and Votto never hits infield pop-ups so that skill of Hamilton's could be waster.

  4. #18
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    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    The problem with batting Hamilton 7th or even 9th, ala TLR, is that is means one less AB for him per game. I love the thought of him starting a game, changing the entire mentality of the defense from the first pitch, and I want that mind game being played as often as possible during a game.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  5. #19
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    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The problem with batting Hamilton 7th or even 9th, ala TLR, is that is means one less AB for him per game. I love the thought of him starting a game, changing the entire mentality of the defense from the first pitch, and I want that mind game being played as often as possible during a game.
    I have only watched Billy once live, but he totally changes the game once he is on first base. The reason is is caught stealing 37 times is because every single pitcher and catcher KNOW he is going within the first 2-3 pitches of the next at bat. (To me that makes his 82% success rate even more impressive). I think this increases the possibility of disruption, since the pitcher and catcher are not thinking if but when.

    I think Billy leading off is not about Votto so much as it is about Phillips, assuming he will bat second. Our biggest headache with BP has always been his tendancy to hit into the DP. I do not think this will be as much of a problem with Billy on first.

    To start, with Billy's pure speed, there less of a a reason for Dusty to call for the hit and run. BP won't have to chase low pitches to protect the runner. Second, there are going to be a lot of second pitch pitch outs, so BP can be patient because he is not going to fall behind in the count as often. Finally, I think BP can sit dead red because pitchers/catchers have a tendancy to stay away from their soft stuff when they expect the runner to go.

    I predict BPs walk rate is gonna go up, and Votto is gonna have a fair number of at bats with men on first and second (BP walks either before or after Billy steals) or men on first and third, or just BP sitting on second after a single where they tried to throw Billy out at home.

    BTW.. if Billy has the same 544 plate appearances as Stubbs had last year (for arguments sake, put all at bats from the lead off position), even if we say he gets caught 20% of the times he steals (and thus eliminating a potential RBI for Votto) he would only need to have an OBP of a measly .287 to provide more total ducks on the pond than he had last year.

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  7. #20
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    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    Yes but we know Hamilton specializes in scoring from pop-ups to the infield and Votto never hits infield pop-ups so that skill of Hamilton's could be waster.
    No problem... BP hits plenty of them.

  8. #21
    Member RedsfaninMT's Avatar
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    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    As a teenager, going to Reds game at Riverfront, my very favorite thing was watching Joe Morgan absolutely disrupt the rhythm of the game, time after time. My dad would always comment on the imaginary line that Joe had off of first and when he hit it, he was off to the races. The stadium was absolutely electric waiting for Joe to run, and I have no doubt it added to the numbers of Bench, Perez and Foster, who followed in the order.

    IF Hamilton can get on base, you bat him lead off and let him stress the heck out of the infielders. Ten pick off throws to first followed by an errant throw and Hamilton is suddenly on 3rd. The key question remains if he can get on base.

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  10. #22
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Hamilton, you would have to think, would be an almost automatic run any time he reached in front of Votto and Phillips. They're probably our best contact hitters as well, and Billy can probably score relatively frequently on a single, more so than other base runners.

    The idea of batting him lower in the line up, in front of Cozart and etc, is that you give a hitter who would have an average chance of driving in a run with any other base runner, you would basically turn them into all star level RBI guys. The problem is, however, Billy doesn't appear to have much XBH power, and hitting lower in the order, would be hitting with runners on more often than leading off. He would also have less opportunities to steal bases and other wise run wild with runners on in front of him.

    I think it all balances out that you have to bat him lead off, all things considered.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
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    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  11. #23
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    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    I'm now balding from watching Stubbs lead off so much. If he plays (starts) for Dusty, he will bat leadoff. I'm not opposed.
    There are only two seasons - Winter and Baseball.

  12. #24
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    That would be awesome if Hamilton's production was close to Wilson's. My comp, though, is Otis Nixon. They share the same career arc (infielders converted to outfield at AAA, fast, not much power) and have the same build. But I'm not one to project the success or failure of a player based on the stats of another player. It'll definitely be interesting seeing what Hamilton can do for himself.
    Schoenfield mentions Nixon in the post, actually. He makes the case that Hamilton is a better player -- or at least projects to be a better one.
    "I’ll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. That’s just how I do things.” -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  13. #25
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    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Schoenfield mentions Nixon in the post, actually. He makes the case that Hamilton is a better player -- or at least projects to be a better one.
    Otis would have had a better career than he did if he hadn't snorted as much cocaine that he did.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  14. #26
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by MrRedLegger View Post
    I'm now balding from watching Stubbs lead off so much.
    Oh that's what causes it. I was wondering why it was happening to me!
    "I’ll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. That’s just how I do things.” -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  15. #27
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    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Otis would have had a better career than he did if he hadn't snorted as much cocaine that he did.
    Hmmm... Willie Wilson was also involved in a drug scandal. What message are they saying when your two comps are both druggies.

  16. #28
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by Brisco View Post
    Hmmm... Willie Wilson was also involved in a drug scandal. What message are they saying when your two comps are both druggies.
    It's called speed for a reason.

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  18. #29
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    Quote Originally Posted by paintmered View Post
    It's called speed for a reason.

    (I'll get my coat)
    HIIIYO!

    You are CORRECT, sir!
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  19. #30
    SERP deep cover ops WebScorpion's Avatar
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    Re: "Billy Hamilton and other really fast guys"

    I'm really looking forward to watching a Red steal home. No more exciting play in the game IMHO.

    "Okay you guys, pair up in threes!" --Yogi Berra


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