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Thread: Leadoff Hitter: Runs scored vs OBP

  1. #1
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Leadoff Hitter: Runs scored vs OBP

    We have all lamented the reds putrid OBP at the top of the order, but what is an acceptable OBP? Choo's .381 is enough to have most here drooling but is OBP a more important stat than Runs Scored?

    in 2010, the Reds OBP at the top of the lineup was .306. Here are the three men that batted there with over 100 AB's at that point in the order.

    Code:
    NAME	              GP      	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	
    Brandon Phillips      72	315	41	79	11	5	8	33	124	18	42	5	.251	.302	.394	.695	
    Orlando Cabrera	      42	182	22	41	13	0	0	12	54	10	20	6	.225	.268	.297	.565	
    Drew Stubbs	      34	127	27	28	6	2	3	8	47	19	41	13	.220	.324	.370	.694
    And yet, that position in the lineup, with additions from other players scored 106 runs, 90 from these three. The objective each time a player comes to the plate is to score. Now admittedly, that is much easier to do the more you get on base, but something was working here. That same year, Milwaukee had a .361 OBP. but managed to score just 8 more runs.

    I'm not entirely certain what I am asking here, just thought it was interesting. I believe last year's .254 OBP was an aberration. I also think for whatever reason, Stubbs was having an AWFUL year. but in 2011, had he stayed in the leadoff spot, I think he'd have scored 100 runs. that he managed to get close despite 204 AB's with... let's say not the best hitters behind him is at least a little impressive.

    I don't believe he's a great leadoff hitter. I think he can be a very good player lower in the order where he can use his underappreciated power to greater lengths. But I also don't believe 2012 is really Drew Stubbs. 2009-2011... that is more him than a one year season long slump.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  3. #2
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Leadoff Hitter: Runs scored vs OBP

    Runs scored is a function of the batters' performance behind you. So it is hard to compare guys head to head and/or project future numbers.

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    dougdirt (02-22-2013)

  5. #3
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Leadoff Hitter: Runs scored vs OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Runs scored is a function of the batters' performance behind you. So it is hard to compare guys head to head and/or project future numbers.
    Yep.

    Case in point

    1965 Reds

    • Tommy Harper 115 games at leadoff .327 OB% 89 runs .77 runs per game
    • Pete 47 games at leadoff .397 OB% 43 runs .91 runs a game



    In reality shouldn't Pete have way more runs? (I mean .14 is significant but a .70 gap in OB% is major)

  6. #4
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Leadoff Hitter: Runs scored vs OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Yep.

    Case in point

    1965 Reds

    • Tommy Harper 115 games at leadoff .327 OB% 89 runs .77 runs per game
    • Pete 47 games at leadoff .397 OB% 43 runs .91 runs a game



    In reality shouldn't Pete have way more runs? (I mean .14 is significant but a .70 gap in OB% is major)
    Pete's OB% was 21% higher than Harper's and his runs per game were 18% higher. Seems pretty close.

  7. #5
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: Leadoff Hitter: Runs scored vs OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Runs scored is a function of the batters' performance behind you. So it is hard to compare guys head to head and/or project future numbers.
    Not purely a function of the batters performance. Base running certainly plays a part on ability to score runs. Hanigan is going to score quite a bit less than Stubbs put in same game situations at same rate.

  8. #6
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Leadoff Hitter: Runs scored vs OBP

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    Not purely a function of the batters performance. Base running certainly plays a part on ability to score runs. Hanigan is going to score quite a bit less than Stubbs put in same game situations at same rate.
    Sure. But runs scored is a function of many things. It's probably a function of whether the wind is blowing in or out. The most important part of the equation though is the productivity of the batters behind you.


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