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Thread: Reds catching 2013 and after

  1. #211
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    Re: Reds catching 2013 and after

    Quote Originally Posted by Plus Plus View Post
    He'll be well on his way to 50% of the team's catching ABs, but not those that happen when the pitchers who pitch only to Hanigan pitch.
    Sure, he CAN receive for those pitchers. However, he'll have to hit much, much better for it to happen.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  3. #212
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: Reds catching 2013 and after

    I think Olivo makes a better reserve catcher than Mesoraco at this point.

  4. #213
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    Re: Reds catching 2013 and after

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    I think Olivo makes a better reserve catcher than Mesoraco at this point.
    Then its AAA or trade.

    If its AAA, what does he have to do to earn the starting job in Cincinnati?
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  5. #214
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds catching 2013 and after

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    So no one wants to go out on a limb and give us a straight answer on what Mes needs to do?

    I give you the following:

    After two months, Hannigan is playing to his career averages. Mes is OPSing 850 and is an average defender. What happens next?
    I think the general feeling that the offensive difference between Hanigan and Mesoraco is driving the allocation of PT is wrong. I think when the defensive gap between Hanigan and Mes becomes less cavernous is when Mes will start getting a bigger allocation of PT. IMO, that's why sending him to AAA doesn't really help the situation. A catcher's defense is largely about his knowledge of the league, its hitters and the pitchers and defenders on his own team. He gains a lot more of that sitting in the majors than he does getting 4 PAs every day in AAA.

    At the end of the day, like many prospects, it may take an injury or something other than performance to force the situation and provide the opportunity. I'm sure we'd feel less comfortable with Todd Frazier at 3B had Rolen stayed healthy and Frazier not been thrust into 66 starts as the Red's 3B in 2012. At that point, Mes would need to sieze the job by performing on both offense and defense. His defense is probably the biggest factor now, but if he hits like he did in the upper minors, it would be hard to take him out of there. Until then, he just needs to make the most of his playing time.

    Based on the conditions in your post, I'd say that if the offense is tanking and Mes' .850 OPS bat is needed, then we might see a change. If the pitchers start liking to throw to Mes, that may also drive a change. OTOH, if Mes is OPSing .850 and Hanigan is playing to his usual norms, the offense is fine and the pitchers are happy, then I'd guess the team would stick with the plan and enjoy its good fortune. It's good to have two good players for the same position. Good teams have good players.
    Last edited by mth123; 03-03-2013 at 01:51 AM.
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  6. #215
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    Re: Reds catching 2013 and after

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think the general feeling that the offensive difference between Hanigan and Mesoraco is driving the allocation of PT is wrong. I think when the defensive gap between Hanigan and Mes becomes less cavernous is when Mes will start getting a bigger allocation of PT. IMO, that's why sending him to AAA doesn't really help the situation. A catcher's defense is largely about his knowledge of the league, its hitters and the pitchers and defenders on his own team. He gains a lot more of that sitting in the majors than he does getting 4 PAs every day in AAA.

    At the end of the day, like many prospects, it may take an injury or something other than performance to force the situation and provide the opportunity. I'm sure we'd feel less comfortable with Todd Frazier at 3B had Rolen stayed healthy and Frazier not been thrust into 66 starts as the Red's 3B in 2012. At that point, Mes would need to sieze the job by performing on both offense and defense. His defense is probably the biggest factor now, but if he hits like he did in the upper minors, it would be hard to take him out of there. .
    I strongly disagree that Mes is better off sitting in the major leagues than playing in the minors.

    Devin M played 54 major league games last year. Over six months that comes to 9 games per month.

    This young catcher cannot progress playing 9 games per month again this year. Eventually, so little action will diminish his skills, destroy his career. These are strong words, but I mean them.

    If the Reds must keep him in the big leagues, they have to play him more. AAA is most sensible for awhile since it helps him jump start his bat, work on his defense, but most of all -- it enables him to play baseball almost every day.

    Some folks ask, well, how will we know when he's ready if he's at AAA? At some point, the Reds' AAA staff will call Dusty and Walt and say this kid is too good for AAA, it's time. Then they have to give him heavy playing time in the bigs.

    Mes played in very few baseball games last season. It cannot happen again. That would be the absolute worst result for this organization and player.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-03-2013 at 02:18 AM.

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  8. #216
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds catching 2013 and after

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I strongly disagree that Mes is better off sitting in the major leagues than playing in the minors.

    Devin M played 54 major league games last year. Over six months that comes to 9 games per month.

    This young catcher cannot progress playing 9 games per month. Eventually, so little action will diminish his skills, destroy his career. These are strong words, but I mean them.

    If the Reds must keep him, they have to play him more. AAA is most sensible for awhile since it helps him jump start his bat, work on his defense, but most of all -- it enables him to play baseball almost every day.

    Some folks ask, well, how will we know when he's ready if he's at AAA? At some point, the Reds' AAA staff will call Dusty and Walt and say this kid is too good for AAA, it's time. Then they have to give him heavy playing time in the bigs.
    I get what you're saying, but I don't think its that dire. Guys get hurt and have lost seasons all the time and come back without losing their skills. If it works out that he needs some reps, he can play winter ball and get a lot of reps. For 2013, I want the best guy on the roster and I think Mes is clearly better than Olivo.

    I get the regular PT argument, but its different for a catcher IMO. Mes learns a lot by being on the big league club. If people are saying he'll never get comfortable with the pitchers if he doesn't catch them, he sure won't get comfortable by being off the team completely. On the team, he's catching them in the pen, he's seeing them work, he's seeing the league's hitters, he's seeing how his defenders play and position themsleves, he's a part of the team's meetings where the game plans are formed, etc. All of that information is important when it comes to calling a game and being a good big league catcher. If he seems to struggle offensively after the season drags on and needs to go down for a couple of weeks to get PAs for his timing, then fine. OTOH, if the plan is to spend the year in AAA and lose the opportunity to learn all the things a catcher learns by being on the big league roster while a lesser player is getting 250 major league PAs and catching 40% of the team's innings, then I think that hurts the team and Mesoraco's development.

    Playing every day is going to do little for his receiving skills or throwing skills at this point and his bat may get rusty, but isn't in danger of permanent erosion IMO. The lessons learned being on the big league team are more important IMO. Having the best player on the roster is important too. I guess I'm just not a fan of Olivo and Hanigan has shown that he falls off with too much PT. The team needs the best guy available to be the second catcher.
    Last edited by mth123; 03-03-2013 at 02:40 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #217
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    Re: Reds catching 2013 and after

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I get what you're saying, but I don't think its that dire. Guys get hurt and have lost seasons all the time and come back without losing their skills. If it works out that he needs some reps, he can play winter ball and get a lot of reps. For 2013, I want the best guy on the roster and I think Mes is clearly better than Olivo.

    I get the regular PT argument, but its different for a catcher IMO. Mes learns a lot by being on the big league club. If people are saying he'll never get comfortable with the pitchers if he doesn't catch them, he sure won't get comfortable by being off the team completely. On the team, he's catching them in the pen, he's seeing them work, he's seeing the league's hitters, he's seeing how his defenders play and position themsleves, he's a part of the team's meetings where the game plans are formed, etc.
    We just disagree. Mes had one year to sit and learn at the big league level. I think another year of doing so is a disaster.

    Hitting a baseball is a very hard skill. For a young guy to miss two years of regular in-game hitting has to set him back.

    As for defense, learning the league and pitchers is important but it shouldn't replace actually playing.

    If the Reds decide they must keep Mesoraco over Olivo, they will have to use Mes much more than last year. He cannot sit and progress.

    As for those who say there is no "plan" I disagree. Hannigan is 32, will be 33 in August. His offense has diminished and is effective mostly against lefties now.

    I think Walt and Dusty definitely plan for Mes to become the sixty percent catcher very soon. The question is how to get him there. My guess is that they understand that last year's usage pattern should not be repeated.

  10. #218
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    Re: Reds catching 2013 and after

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Well, Homer at the very least improved last year in the stretch run once Mesoraco was demoted and he started pitching to Hanigan.

    And Chapman absolutely needs to be pitching to Hanigan while he's developing as a starter. He needs to be put in the very best position to succeed in that spot.
    Homer Bailey's career: April-August ERA is 5.50. September it is under 3.00. Hanigan happened to catch Bailey in September.

    Bailey had an ERA of 3.50 through July with Mesoraco. Then Bailey hit a rough patch. Was that on Mesoraco, who had done very well with him up to that point, or was that on Bailey?

    Good pitchers pitch good. Bad ones don't. When pitchers get traded, they tend to perform as expected. It isn't because the catchers are going with them, it is because they are what they are. Catchers can make a difference, but it is not nearly as big as some people want to make it out to be.

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    Re: Reds catching 2013 and after

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Homer Bailey's career: April-August ERA is 5.50. September it is under 3.00. Hanigan happened to catch Bailey in September.

    Bailey had an ERA of 3.50 through July with Mesoraco. Then Bailey hit a rough patch. Was that on Mesoraco, who had done very well with him up to that point, or was that on Bailey?

    Good pitchers pitch good. Bad ones don't. When pitchers get traded, they tend to perform as expected. It isn't because the catchers are going with them, it is because they are what they are. Catchers can make a difference, but it is not nearly as big as some people want to make it out to be.
    I agree. I don't like this personal catcher business.

    Unfortunately, starting pitchers probably DO insist on certain catchers. And teams probably try to accomodate them.

    That's another reason why I favor giving Devin more seasoning and then at some point (say April 2014) declaring him the starting catcher. When Mes is deemed ready, he's the guy most of the time, no negotiation.

    It's just a question of picking the right moment.

  13. #220
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Reds catching 2013 and after

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    When Mes is deemed ready, he's the guy most of the time, no negotiation.

    .

    I'd argue that's what they should have done last year.

    If he had spit the bit at the All Star Break last year, you can send him down to AAA.

    The way things worked out, we just don't know what we have in Mes. Dude could very well be awful. He could be an All Star. With the sample size he got last year we don't know. We aren't going to know what he has until he gets to play nearly every day in the bigs.

    If he goes down an repeats his 2011 AAA season, we'll have no more information than we do now.

    They only way to know is to play him. In the majors.

    Hitting, there really isn't much difference between Hannigan and Mes.

    Over 600 PA's, slightly more than 12 Runs Created. And that's with Mes not being able to get into any kind of groove at all. I think Mes, right now, can be a 800 OPS guy in the majors if given enough PA's. At the very least .750.

    The only way we'll know what he can do defensively is to catch him.

    We all know what Hannigan can do. We don't know what Mes can do.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  14. #221
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    Re: Reds catching 2013 and after

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I'd argue that's what they should have done last year.

    If he had spit the bit at the All Star Break last year, you can send him down to AAA.

    The way things worked out, we just don't know what we have in Mes. Dude could very well be awful. He could be an All Star. With the sample size he got last year we don't know. We aren't going to know what he has until he gets to play nearly every day in the bigs.

    If he goes down an repeats his 2011 AAA season, we'll have no more information than we do now.

    They only way to know is to play him. In the majors.

    Hitting, there really isn't much difference between Hannigan and Mes.

    Over 600 PA's, slightly more than 12 Runs Created. And that's with Mes not being able to get into any kind of groove at all. I think Mes, right now, can be a 800 OPS guy in the majors if given enough PA's. At the very least .750.

    The only way we'll know what he can do defensively is to catch him.

    We all know what Hannigan can do. We don't know what Mes can do.
    Really couldn't disagree more, the objective is not to "find out what Mes can do." This isn't some stranger. The Reds have followed him and worked with him for years in the minors and last year in the majors. They are managers, coaches, scouts. I think they know the player pretty well.

    The objective, rather, is to develop the player into a major league starter. My proposal is designed to do that. Be patient, let Mes succeed at AAA after a tough 2012, then give him the full major league shot.

  15. #222
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    Re: Reds catching 2013 and after

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I agree. I don't like this personal catcher business.

    Unfortunately, starting pitchers probably DO insist on certain catchers. And teams probably try to accomodate them.

    That's another reason why I favor giving Devin more seasoning and then at some point (say April 2014) declaring him the starting catcher. When Mes is deemed ready, he's the guy most of the time, no negotiation.

    It's just a question of picking the right moment.

    This is why I think the Reds would be better off carrying Hanigan, Mes, and Olivo and dropping Paul from the 25 man. Frazier can be the emergency 5th outfielder and this allows Mes can be brought in judiciously to pinch hit and catch the relief corp on a regular basis. He can start fewer than 50% of the time (or even 40%) and still get frequent work.
    Last edited by LeDoux; 03-03-2013 at 07:29 PM. Reason: Typos

  16. #223
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    Re: Reds catching 2013 and after

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Really couldn't disagree more, the objective is not to "find out what Mes can do." This isn't some stranger. The Reds have followed him and worked with him for years in the minors and last year in the majors. They are managers, coaches, scouts. I think they know the player pretty well.
    If this was the case, the decesion has already been made and nothing he does in spring training should matter. And I'm fine with that.


    The objective, rather, is to develop the player into a major league starter. My proposal is designed to do that. Be patient, let Mes succeed at AAA after a tough 2012, then give him the full major league shot.
    Dusty has said that Mes' confidence is shot. Sending him to purgatory isn't going to help that.

    I think the objective is SLIGHTLY different. Yes I agree that the idea is to develop the player into a major league starter. That doesn't mean it has to be THIS player.

    If the Reds can flip Mes for need, that does the same thing. I think sending him down would hurt his trade value.

    Give him the first half of the season, hope like heck he produces. Then make the decesion to keep or trade him.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  17. #224
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    Re: Reds catching 2013 and after

    Let me make one final point. Hannigan is certainly a safer choice. The Reds are going to win the divison running away, and I really can understand not rocking the boat. Mes' potential interests me to no end. I think with the subtraction of Stubbs and the addition of Choo I think this is the year to move Mes into the lineup. If Choo isn't signed next year, and Hamilton isn't moved, do the Reds need to put two rookies in the line up at the same time as "the plan"?
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  18. #225
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    Re: Reds catching 2013 and after

    By that point, Mesoraco will have had around 500 to 600 ABs at the major league level.

    That'd give him (and the Reds) a good idea of what they have/ need, should they decide to deal Hanigan next season.

    IMO, Hanigan is much better than you're giving him credit for. His bat isn't a complete lost cause, and his glove is superior. Mesoraco would have to really mash, as he simply doesn't have the glove/ ability behind the plate Hanigan does.
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