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Thread: Reds sign Mark Prior

  1. #76
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Mark Prior

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    It's very hard to argue that Baker didn't overwork Prior in 2003, as your numbers demonstrate. That's probably the last time we see a young pitcher worked like that.

    However, we really don't know that that workload is what caused Prior's injury. I personally think teams should pitch their best pitchers without regard for pitch counts, age and workloads. Pitchers are going to get hurt no matter how you handle them. I think the value of using them when they are healthy and you need the quality innings outweighs whatever extra years you might get out of them by babying them. jmo
    I think this whole "overworkikng" thing is baloney. That belief is based on a totally arbitrary and unsubstantiated belief that somehow the pitcher's arm begins tiring at 100 pitches magically and anything over 100 is abuse.

    There is no magical number that constitutes abuse. People have tried and failed to connect any sort of pitch count as being the magical number.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Mark Prior

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    I think this whole "overworkikng" thing is baloney. That belief is based on a totally arbitrary and unsubstantiated belief that somehow the pitcher's arm begins tiring at 100 pitches magically and anything over 100 is abuse.

    There is no magical number that constitutes abuse. People have tried and failed to connect any sort of pitch count as being the magical number.
    If Prior were 29 at the time, there probably wouldn't be so much outrage over it. But he was 22. With a prior career high of 134 innings. Then he threw 231 innings at age 22, with a huge pitch count over the last 100 of those innings.

  4. #78
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    Re: Reds sign Mark Prior

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If Prior were 29 at the time, there probably wouldn't be so much outrage over it. But he was 22. With a prior career high of 134 innings. Then he threw 231 innings at age 22, with a huge pitch count over the last 100 of those innings.
    If anything, that is a point in favor rather than a point against.

    Younger guys' bodies are less fragile than older players. I'm sure you felt better when you were 20 than you do now, right? The bones and muscles are much more durable at a younger age.

    I don't see age as having much to do with it. You could certainly argue that young players not be stretched out too quickly relative to what they're used to pitching, but Dusty only used him in 2003 about 10 innings more than Prior was used in 2002 between Chicago and the minors. So if he were overused as a rookie, that is an organizational problem, not a Dusty problem.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  5. #79
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    Re: Reds sign Mark Prior

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If Prior were 29 at the time, there probably wouldn't be so much outrage over it. But he was 22. With a prior career high of 134 innings. Then he threw 231 innings at age 22, with a huge pitch count over the last 100 of those innings.
    Prior also threw 138 innings as a jr at USC and 136 as a soph (plus however many playing for Team USA).
    Last edited by dabvu2498; 03-02-2013 at 01:08 PM.
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    Re: Reds sign Mark Prior

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    If anything, that is a point in favor rather than a point against.

    Younger guys' bodies are less fragile than older players. I'm sure you felt better when you were 20 than you do now, right? The bones and muscles are much more durable at a younger age.

    I don't see age as having much to do with it. You could certainly argue that young players not be stretched out too quickly relative to what they're used to pitching, but Dusty only used him in 2003 about 10 innings more than Prior was used in 2002 between Chicago and the minors. So if he were overused as a rookie, that is an organizational problem, not a Dusty problem.
    Prior threw 167 innings in 2002. He threw 231 in 2003.

    We just don't see young pitchers making that kind of jump anymore. Every team now believes that is far too much of a jump for an arm that young. And yeah, it is an organizational problem as well as a manager problem. There are multiple examples of Prior going out and throwing 15-20 extra pitches in blow out games down the stretch. That is entirely on the manager.

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    Re: Reds sign Mark Prior

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't care that Mark Prior wants to stay connected with Dusty. That is his choice. I am saying that Prior probably doesn't understand just how abused his arm was by Dusty.
    I'm sure Prior would love to be enlightened by you since he is obviously just acting in ignorance, while you know better. Only one word--hubris.
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    Re: Reds sign Mark Prior

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin View Post
    I have lots of "Internet fans" I enjoy, but "message board doctor guy" is my favorite. Somewhere along the way, people decided that Dusty Baker "ruined" Kerry Wood and Mark Prior and ignore most of the expert analysis I've read that details their flawed mechanics and possibly being exposed to throwing junk too early in their physical development (little league). You should see the Redskins boards right now in regards to RG3's knee.... On the message board I frequent there are 3 plumbers, 4 lawyers, 1 CPA, and 1,436 orthopedic surgeons.
    So true & so funny...

    We all enjoy posting our thoughts & opinions...One of my favorite parts of the RedsZone is when posters 'THROW DOWN' even when every single 'pundant' in baseball disagrees with their opinion...I always think with all that 'original knowledge' & 'wisdom' why don't they quit their day job & start their own baseball network...I'm sure it would do well....

    Enjoy your day....GO Hoosiers!

  10. #83
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    Re: Reds sign Mark Prior

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Prior threw 167 innings in 2002. He threw 231 in 2003.

    We just don't see young pitchers making that kind of jump anymore. Every team now believes that is far too much of a jump for an arm that young. And yeah, it is an organizational problem as well as a manager problem. There are multiple examples of Prior going out and throwing 15-20 extra pitches in blow out games down the stretch. That is entirely on the manager.
    I was apparently looking at both Prior's combined minor league totals as well as his individual stops, which doubled his minor totals.

    Regardless, he had only 49 additional innings from 2002 to 2003 in the regular season. That's not really that outrageous a jump. There are still times when teams allow that sort of jump.

    Like I've said before, 30 innings is more of a fictional creation of Tom Verducci than any Biblical standard used by MLB teams.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Reds sign Mark Prior

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    I'm sure Prior would love to be enlightened by you since he is obviously just acting in ignorance, while you know better. Only one word--hubris.
    I will tell him exactly what I posted earlier in this thread: Every team in baseball now has rules set up to avoid both the jump in innings you made for pitchers that were your age as well as avoiding the total number of pitches in even one single game that you averaged over your final 13 starts of 2003. They do that for a reason. They all believe that it will help keep young pitchers healthy because they all believe that going against that greatly increases the risk of injury to young pitchers.

    It isn't that I alone know better. It is that every team in baseball now does.

  12. #85
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    Re: Reds sign Mark Prior

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I will tell him exactly what I posted earlier in this thread: Every team in baseball now has rules set up to avoid both the jump in innings you made for pitchers that were your age as well as avoiding the total number of pitches in even one single game that you averaged over your final 13 starts of 2003. They do that for a reason. They all believe that it will help keep young pitchers healthy because they all believe that going against that greatly increases the risk of injury to young pitchers.

    It isn't that I alone know better. It is that every team in baseball now does.
    Still, you apply that to one case, and basically tell Prior he is ignorant if he doesn't think Dusty "ruined his arm." That is the hubris. Maybe he knows the truth about himself more than you do as a far away observer typing on a keyboard.

    BTW, your entire response begs the question. Surely your parents explained the "just because everybody's doing it" principle to you. That a profession practices something does not make it a best practice. It makes it conventional wisdom. We could have quite a chuckle at a lot of practices in a lot of industries that were done by everybody but were proven to be unnecessary or actually were detrimental. Who knows with this practice. It'd be hard to document without crossing the lines of self-fulfilling prophecies.
    Last edited by traderumor; 03-02-2013 at 01:22 PM.
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    Re: Reds sign Mark Prior

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I will tell him exactly what I posted earlier in this thread: Every team in baseball now has rules set up to avoid both the jump in innings you made for pitchers that were your age as well as avoiding the total number of pitches in even one single game that you averaged over your final 13 starts of 2003. They do that for a reason. They all believe that it will help keep young pitchers healthy because they all believe that going against that greatly increases the risk of injury to young pitchers.

    It isn't that I alone know better. It is that every team in baseball now does.
    It is true that we know now that Prior was overworked in that 2003 season and that is likely the reason he suffered a huge dropoff in performance in 2004 and never reached anywhere near to that 2003 level of performance again.

    However, it wasn't until after 2003 that sabermetrics proved that overworking a pitcher in that manner is highly likely to cause injury and permanent reduction in pitching ability. You are correct that no team will ever use a pitcher that way again. But to call it abuse implies that Dusty and the pitching coach knew it was the wrong thing to do. I think they just didn't know any better. Most people didn't know any better at that time.

  15. #87
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    Re: Reds sign Mark Prior

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Prior threw 167 innings in 2002. He threw 231 in 2003.

    We just don't see young pitchers making that kind of jump anymore. Every team now believes that is far too much of a jump for an arm that young. And yeah, it is an organizational problem as well as a manager problem. There are multiple examples of Prior going out and throwing 15-20 extra pitches in blow out games down the stretch. That is entirely on the manager.
    Chris Sale?

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  17. #88
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Reds sign Mark Prior

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    It is true that we know now that Prior was overworked in that 2003 season and that is likely the reason he suffered a huge dropoff in performance in 2004 and never reached anywhere near to that 2003 level of performance again.

    However, it wasn't until after 2003 that sabermetrics proved that overworking a pitcher in that manner is highly likely to cause injury and permanent reduction in pitching ability. You are correct that no team will ever use a pitcher that way again. But to call it abuse implies that Dusty and the pitching coach knew it was the wrong thing to do. I think they just didn't know any better. Most people didn't know any better at that time.
    I agree. A lot of MMQBing on this case.

  18. #89
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    Re: Reds sign Mark Prior

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    It is true that we know now that Prior was overworked in that 2003 season and that is likely the reason he suffered a huge dropoff in performance in 2004 and never reached anywhere near to that 2003 level of performance again.

    However, it wasn't until after 2003 that sabermetrics proved that overworking a pitcher in that manner is highly likely to cause injury and permanent reduction in pitching ability. You are correct that no team will ever use a pitcher that way again. But to call it abuse implies that Dusty and the pitching coach knew it was the wrong thing to do. I think they just didn't know any better. Most people didn't know any better at that time.
    He was pretty solid in 2005.

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    Re: Reds sign Mark Prior

    When the Cubs were something like 6 outs from the World Series in 2003 and the wheels to the Cubs mojo wagon suddenly came off somebody had to be the scapegoat.... the fan in left field.....Dusty Baker...... That's all that was talked about in the Chicago media for 2 or 3 years. I was living there at the time so I know the Chicago media can be relentless. After that playoff collapse, Baker was second guessed and scrutinized for every managerial decision he made during his remaining tenure as Cubs manager. That includes everything from how he used Prior and Wood to handling giant egos like Sosa and Zambrano.
    In other words, it's my humble opinion that all the talk of Baker overworking pitchers and why it is still talked about today is product of two things: the playoff collapse in 2003 and negative culture surrounding a perennial losing ball club that's never won anything. Do you think this would still be talked about some 10 years later in such negative light if the Cubs had gone on to win the World Series in 2003?
    Last edited by holster10; 03-02-2013 at 02:14 PM.

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