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Thread: Optimal lineup

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  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Optimal lineup

    http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2....html?spref=tw

    Best Simulator Lineup vs RHP
    1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
    2. Joey Votto (L)
    3. Brandon Phillips
    4. Jay Bruce (L)
    5. Zack Cozart
    6. Todd Frazier
    7. Ryan Ludwick
    8. Pitchers Spot
    9. Ryan Hanigan
    Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 1.14

    Best Simulator Lineup vs LHP
    1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
    2. Jay Bruce (L)
    3. Brandon Phillips
    4. Joey Votto (L)
    5. Zack Cozart
    6. Todd Frazier
    7. Ryan Ludwick
    8. Pitchers Spot
    9. Ryan Hanigan
    Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.75

    Main observations:
    - Doesn't like seeing Votto bat with 2 outs and the bases empty.
    - Likes Hanigan batting 9th to take greater advantage of his OBP and recognizing his limited potential to drive in runs.
    - Cozart, Frazier and Ludwick are similar types of hitters, though I don't see why Cozart should be batting ahead of the other two
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  2. #2
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    http://thesoberangels.blogspot.com/2....html?spref=tw

    Best Simulator Lineup vs RHP
    1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
    2. Joey Votto (L)
    3. Brandon Phillips
    4. Jay Bruce (L)
    5. Zack Cozart
    6. Todd Frazier
    7. Ryan Ludwick
    8. Pitchers Spot
    9. Ryan Hanigan
    Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 1.14

    Best Simulator Lineup vs LHP
    1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
    2. Jay Bruce (L)
    3. Brandon Phillips
    4. Joey Votto (L)
    5. Zack Cozart
    6. Todd Frazier
    7. Ryan Ludwick
    8. Pitchers Spot
    9. Ryan Hanigan
    Wins/162 Games Better Than Default Lineup: 0.75

    Main observations:
    - Doesn't like seeing Votto bat with 2 outs and the bases empty.
    - Likes Hanigan batting 9th to take greater advantage of his OBP and recognizing his limited potential to drive in runs.
    - Cozart, Frazier and Ludwick are similar types of hitters, though I don't see why Cozart should be batting ahead of the other two
    I like it a lot. Of course I am the guy that has been advocating for putting Joey Votto in the 2-hole for a couple years now.

    It is interesting that the only difference between the LHP and RHP lineups is that Votto and Bruce are flipped.

    The simulator seems to like putting the pitcher in the 8th slot for all National League teams.

    I like that the simulator recognizes that Phillips (and not Ludwick) is the ideal hitter to put between Votto and Bruce. Phillips crushes lefties, while Ludwick is better vs righties (despite his small sample size to the contrary in 2012). So Phillips is the guy to put in the 3rd slot to take advantage of the extra LOOGYs in the late innings.

    It is traditional in baseball to show respect to your best hitter by batting him in the 3rd spot in the batting order. But pretty much every one of these simulators has shown over the years that the 3-hole is LESS important than the 1, 2 and 4 holes in terms of run production.

    This sim used Bill James' projected statistics -- not the players' real 2012 stats, which likely accounts for why Cozart sits above Ludwick and Frazier. I would like to see the sim redone using last year's actual stats to see if it turns out different, especially when compared to Dusty's usual lineup with Stubbs and Cozart at the top.

    James has Cozart projected for a .308 OBP, which is much better than the .288 OBP Cozart put up last year.
    James also has Ludwick projected for a much inferior season in 2013 than he did in 2012 -- a .332 wOBA vs the .373 wOBA from 2012.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 03-02-2013 at 10:44 AM.

  3. #3
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post

    The simulator seems to like putting the pitcher in the 8th slot for all National League teams.
    I agree with the simulator. To me, the basic rule of thumb in making a lineup would be to maximize what you've got. That means putting the best hitters (oversimplifying) in the immediate company of the other best hitters. Why, then, would you want your worst hitter--the pitcher--contiguous with the run of best hitters? The 9 guy should be an OBP type. And you really don't lose much by moving the pitcher up to 8. The guy in front of him should be the second-worst hitter.

    Also agree with Votto in the 2 hole. That way, they can't be pitching around him as freely. And when they do, his walks are put to greater advantage.

  4. #4
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    The simulator seems to like putting the pitcher in the 8th slot for all National League teams.
    did Tony LaRussa create this simulator ?

  5. #5
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    How much of a difference are we talking in terms of runs here?
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
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  6. #6
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    How much of a difference are we talking in terms of runs here?
    You can assume that 1 win is roughly 10 runs.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #7
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    How much of a difference are we talking in terms of runs here?
    In this example the range is an extra 7-12 runs by using the optimal lineup instead of the lineup that is listed on MLBdepthcharts.com. This lineup is:

    1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
    2. Brandon Phillips
    3. Joey Votto (L)
    4. Ryan Ludwick
    5. Jay Bruce (L)
    6. Todd Frazier
    7. Zack Cozart
    8. Ryan Hanigan
    9. Pitchers Spot


    Other studies have shown that using the best possible lineup instead of the worst possible lineup would net an extra 40 runs or so for an average MLB team. That would be worth an extra 4 wins on average.

    The difference of an extra 7-12 runs (about one win) in this particular example is smaller than the 40 runs because the optimal lineup is being compared to the Reds' likely Opening Day batting order, which is much better than the worst possible lineup (which might have the pitcher batting 3rd for example).

    If this study had been executed using the Reds' actual 2012 stats and their usual batting order with Stubbs 1st and Cozart 2nd etc it would have been interesting to see how many more runs the optimal lineup would have scored. I imagine last year's standard batting order was closer to the worst possible lineup than the optimal lineup.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 03-02-2013 at 12:36 PM.

  8. #8
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    This looks a lot like the batting order that *BaseClogger* guy has been advocating around here!
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  9. #9
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    This looks a lot like the batting order that *BaseClogger* guy has been advocating around here!

    who?

    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    *BaseClogger* (03-03-2013)

  11. #10
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Is the simulator using just 2012 numbers or career? If 2012 is it putting Votto 2nd due to the diminished power post injury?

  12. #11
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    Is the simulator using just 2012 numbers or career? If 2012 is it putting Votto 2nd due to the diminished power post injury?
    The simulator is using projected 2013 numbers provided by Bill James.

  13. #12
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Not sure that I can get behind any lineup with Cozart hitting 5th.

  14. #13
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Not sure that I can get behind any lineup with Cozart hitting 5th.
    I'll second that. I'm not crazy about Joey in the two spot either.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  15. #14
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    I'll second that. I'm not crazy about Joey in the two spot either.
    When you look at the projections, it has Cozart, Ludwick and Frazier as all somewhat similar. That said, I agree that it's odd to see Cozart rise to the top of that group when you consider Ludwick has a long track record of performance and a very solid 2012 and that Frazier hit more in the minors than Cozart and hit more last year.

    In any event, the order of those 3 is basically just about distribution of at bats, not differences in the skills. I'd go Ludwick, Frazier, Cozart personally.

    Regarding Votto batting 2nd, if you have Hanigan batting 9th, it makes a lot more sense. Think about it this way:
    - In his first AB, Votto has no chance of coming to bat with the bases empty and 2 outs, the lowest possible value PA.
    - In his remaining at bats, the teams two best OBP guys other than him are batting before him.

    My lineup is:

    Choo
    Votto
    Phillips
    Bruce
    Ludwick
    Frazier
    Cozart
    Pitcher
    Hanigan

    While I wasn't advocating for resigning him, I think Ludwick is generally underrated around here. Nothing about his bounce-back season was particularly out of character.

    Look at his seasons with the Padres and Pirates. He admittedly got pull happy and his power declined, combined with a small BABIP dip (that could be random, could be approach, could be skill degredation - no way of telling really given the sample size). But when you look at last year's skill-related stats compared to career norms:
    Code:
    	Cont%	K%	BB%	ISO	BABIP	
    2012	74.7%	20.6%	8.9%	.256	.299		
    Career	75.8%	22.2%	8.6%	.203	.304
    There's nothing out of character there. Sure the power was up, but that's also somewhat a GABP thing (.286 ISO at home, .223 on the road in 2012).

    Expecting him to hit something like .270/.340/.480 isn't unreasonable at all and would make him the obvious choice to bat at least 5th, if not 4th. I think there's very little chance Frazier puts up that kind of a line and virtually no chance that Cozart does.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  16. #15
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Because the Reds never had adequate lineup protection for Joey, I've advocated batting him 2nd for a long time. I hate seeing him pitched around. Opposing teams would have to pitch to him or put him on base and take their chances. Joey would probably bat close to .400 if he batted 2nd. LOL.

    Hopefully acquiring Choo takes care of it though. If Choo and BP can get on base in front of Joey, no way they walk the bases full.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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