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Thread: Optimal lineup

  1. #16
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Pitcher
    Cozart
    Votto
    Stubbs
    Bruce
    Hanigan
    Ludwick
    Phillips
    Rolen/Frazier

    It's hard to believe but I guess it's true.

    But this lineup wins the central handily last year?

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  3. #17
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Not sure that I can get behind any lineup with Cozart hitting 5th.
    I'll second that. I'm not crazy about Joey in the two spot either.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  4. #18
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    If cloning humans were legal Joey Votto's DNA would be worth more than his contract with the Reds.

    It's illegal here in the States. We need a SERP mission to North Korea.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  5. #19
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Optimus Prime Lineup

    Joey Votto
    Joey Votto
    Joey Votto
    Joey Votto
    Joey Votto
    Joey Votto
    Joey Votto
    Joey Votto
    Joey Votto
    Nope you have to split up the lefties.

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  7. #20
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    The simulator seems to like putting the pitcher in the 8th slot for all National League teams.
    did Tony LaRussa create this simulator ?

  8. #21
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    I'll second that. I'm not crazy about Joey in the two spot either.
    When you look at the projections, it has Cozart, Ludwick and Frazier as all somewhat similar. That said, I agree that it's odd to see Cozart rise to the top of that group when you consider Ludwick has a long track record of performance and a very solid 2012 and that Frazier hit more in the minors than Cozart and hit more last year.

    In any event, the order of those 3 is basically just about distribution of at bats, not differences in the skills. I'd go Ludwick, Frazier, Cozart personally.

    Regarding Votto batting 2nd, if you have Hanigan batting 9th, it makes a lot more sense. Think about it this way:
    - In his first AB, Votto has no chance of coming to bat with the bases empty and 2 outs, the lowest possible value PA.
    - In his remaining at bats, the teams two best OBP guys other than him are batting before him.

    My lineup is:

    Choo
    Votto
    Phillips
    Bruce
    Ludwick
    Frazier
    Cozart
    Pitcher
    Hanigan

    While I wasn't advocating for resigning him, I think Ludwick is generally underrated around here. Nothing about his bounce-back season was particularly out of character.

    Look at his seasons with the Padres and Pirates. He admittedly got pull happy and his power declined, combined with a small BABIP dip (that could be random, could be approach, could be skill degredation - no way of telling really given the sample size). But when you look at last year's skill-related stats compared to career norms:
    Code:
    	Cont%	K%	BB%	ISO	BABIP	
    2012	74.7%	20.6%	8.9%	.256	.299		
    Career	75.8%	22.2%	8.6%	.203	.304
    There's nothing out of character there. Sure the power was up, but that's also somewhat a GABP thing (.286 ISO at home, .223 on the road in 2012).

    Expecting him to hit something like .270/.340/.480 isn't unreasonable at all and would make him the obvious choice to bat at least 5th, if not 4th. I think there's very little chance Frazier puts up that kind of a line and virtually no chance that Cozart does.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #22
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    IMO, this simulation assumes that Hannigan (and every other player) is going to produce the same, regardless of where they bat.
    IMO, Hannigan's OBP is going to take a hit when he's not batting #8.

    The #8 hitter is going to get a few more at bats than the #9 hitter over the course of the season. That advantage outweighs trying to hit the pitcher #8 to get better OBP in the 9 hole for the #1 and #2 hitters. Honestly, the pitcher is the worst hitter in the lineup, his ABs should be minimized.

    Cozart hitting 5th and Ludwick hitting 7th (ahead of the pitcher) is just ludicrous. If Cozart ends up being more productive offensively than Ludwick this year, we are probably in serious trouble.
    I think there's enough guesswork in the projections used for this simulation that the 11 extra runs produced by their "optimal" lineup is not significant.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  10. #23
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Hanigan has a higher career OBP when batting 7th (.396) than he does when batting 8th (.362). And his OPS is almost 100 points higher in the 7th slot than the 8th slot (.802 vs .708).

    I agree that batting Cozart ahead of Ludwick is not a good idea. However, that was not the fault of the simulator but rather the fault of the projections provided by Bill James, which predict that Cozart will have a much better year at the plate than he did in 2012 while predicting that Ludwick will have a much worse year than he did in 2012. By the way, the Steamer, Oliver and Zips projections are all pessimistic about Ludwick as well, but they do have him hitting better than Cozart.

  11. #24
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    So what if Hanigan's OBP takes a hit batting 9th? What's the mean in practice, .350? That still justifies batting him 9th.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #25
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    So what if Hanigan's OBP takes a hit batting 9th? What's the mean in practice, .350? That still justifies batting him 9th.
    I don't have a problem with batting Hanigan 9th. I was just countering the commonplace notion that Hanigan's OBP is high because he is being pitched around when batting in front of the pitcher. In reality, Hanigan's OBP and SLG are actually higher when he does not bat in front of the pitcher.

  13. #26
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    So what if Hanigan's OBP takes a hit batting 9th? What's the mean in practice, .350? That still justifies batting him 9th.
    I'm just asking, because I don't know.. how many fewer plate appearances will Hannigan get hitting 9th vs 8th? Think of the extra outs you are giving up by giving the pitcher extra at bats.

    Frasier and Cozart are the likely 6 and 7 hitters. They have extra base power, and Hannigan's singles can potentially drive them in.
    Seems like Hannigan's high OBP is not wasted at all in the 8th slot.
    He's a slow runner, with little power.
    The pitcher can bunt him over to 2nd, thus making the pitcher's AB more productive than an empty out.

    I know .. there's logic in making the #9 hitter a second leadoff guy, but someone like Hannigan is slow and has no extra base power (he can not get himself into scoring position).

    Yea, I know.. I'm talking like Dusty, but I think there's merit to this.
    We have to look beyond OBP a bit sometimes (although OBP is important).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  14. #27
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Hanigan has a higher career OBP when batting 7th (.396) than he does when batting 8th (.362). And his OPS is almost 100 points higher in the 7th slot than the 8th slot (.802 vs .708).
    about Ludwick as well, but they do have him hitting better than Cozart.
    Hard to say. Hannigan only has 290 plate appearances hitting 7th.
    Also, when Hannigan batted 7th, there was probably a pretty bad hitter hitting 8th (Valdez or some other replacement level player that wasn't much better than the pitcher).

    Anyhow, I have a feeling that pitchers would be more aggressive against Hannigan with Choo on deck as opposed to the pitcher/backup player being on deck. Hannigan gets some respect in certain situations. The pitcher is going for the easier out.
    Of course, no way to prove it..
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #28
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Hard to say. Hannigan only has 290 plate appearances hitting 7th.
    Also, when Hannigan batted 7th, there was probably a pretty bad hitter hitting 8th (Valdez or some other replacement level player that wasn't much better than the pitcher).

    Anyhow, I have a feeling that pitchers would be more aggressive against Hannigan with Choo on deck as opposed to the pitcher/backup player being on deck. Hannigan gets some respect in certain situations. The pitcher is going for the easier out.
    Of course, no way to prove it..
    I wondered about that. 290 AB would be scoffed at by many posters on here, myself included.

    Hard to believe that with the IBB he gets from time to time in the 8 hole he would actually have better numbers in the 7 spot. It's just hard to get enough data to make a clear conclusion.

  16. #29
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I'm just asking, because I don't know.. how many fewer plate appearances will Hannigan get hitting 9th vs 8th? Think of the extra outs you are giving up by giving the pitcher extra at bats.
    15 to 20 plate appearances over a full season. So less than 10 difference for him.

    Frasier and Cozart are the likely 6 and 7 hitters. They have extra base power, and Hannigan's singles can potentially drive them in.

    Seems like Hannigan's high OBP is not wasted at all in the 8th slot.

    He's a slow runner, with little power. The pitcher can bunt him over to 2nd, thus making the pitcher's AB more productive than an empty out.
    Can't the pitcher bunt over Cozart so a Hanigan single drives him in? What if there are two outs?

    I know .. there's logic in making the #9 hitter a second leadoff guy, but someone like Hannigan is slow and has no extra base power (he can not get himself into scoring position).

    Yea, I know.. I'm talking like Dusty, but I think there's merit to this.
    We have to look beyond OBP a bit sometimes (although OBP is important).
    I guess I'm more worried about making Shin Soo Choo's hits and walks more productive than I am setting up the pitcher to make productive outs. Ultimately the difference is negligible and not worth getting anybody's knickers in a twist about. But if the argument is one about what set of interactions between hitting abilities makes the most runs happen, the math has already been done.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  17. #30
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Optimal lineup

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Hard to say. Hannigan only has 290 plate appearances hitting 7th.
    Also, when Hannigan batted 7th, there was probably a pretty bad hitter hitting 8th (Valdez or some other replacement level player that wasn't much better than the pitcher).

    Anyhow, I have a feeling that pitchers would be more aggressive against Hannigan with Choo on deck as opposed to the pitcher/backup player being on deck. Hannigan gets some respect in certain situations. The pitcher is going for the easier out.
    Of course, no way to prove it..
    The 100 point difference in OPS is so big that it overcomes the relatively smallish sample size. It would take a huge correction in the opposite direction just to equalize his 7th and 8th slot stats and even then the numbers would still only be equal. Your assertion was that he performed better in the 8th slot. The numbers show he is much better in the 7th slot. Even if you think he will regress to the mean with a larger sample size there is still no indication that it will regress well beyond the mean to where his stats would completely flip and become better in the 8th slot than the 7th.


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