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Thread: Vegas over/under

  1. #1
    Member RedsfaninMT's Avatar
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    Vegas over/under

    As tweeted by L. McAllister via Sportsbook.com,

    Votto 27.5 HR
    Bruce, 32.5 HR
    Cueto, 13.5 Wins

    Those are the only lines on any Reds players. If I were a betting man, there are a whole lot of overs I would take from that site. Price at 15.5 wins and Cain at 14.5 wins seem like pretty good bets to me. So do Cueto and Votto.
    Last edited by RedsfaninMT; 03-04-2013 at 11:09 AM.

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  3. #2
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    I'd go under on Votto homers, under on Bruce homers, over on Cueto wins...but on all of em, a LOT depends on health.

  4. #3
    throws 106. NBD.
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    I was in Vegas a week ago and put $20 on the Reds to win it all (11/1 odds at the Venetian). They didn't have any prop bets listed or I probably would've put some more money down.

  5. #4
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    I wonder what the split is for what comes in, over vs under. With injuries taken into acct, you gotta think unders come in more frequently.

  6. #5
    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Over on Bruce and under on the other two.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

  7. #6
    Member RedsfaninMT's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Seems as though folks are pessimistic about Cueto. He doesn't win 14 games, then the rest of the staff better pick things up substantially. And is the thought on Votto that he won't get his power back? 30 HR for him seems like an easy mark IF he returns to form.

  8. #7
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I wonder what the split is for what comes in, over vs under. With injuries taken into acct, you gotta think unders come in more frequently.
    Yeah Vegas accounts for that. Otherwise you are right, you could bet on all the unders and you would come out ahead. But they probably trim 5-10 percent or so off a full healthy season projection.

  9. #8
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsfaninMT View Post
    Seems as though folks are pessimistic about Cueto. He doesn't win 14 games, then the rest of the staff better pick things up substantially. And is the thought on Votto that he won't get his power back? 30 HR for him seems like an easy mark IF he returns to form.
    Ask Cliff Lee his opinion on this.

  10. #9
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsfaninMT View Post
    And is the thought on Votto that he won't get his power back? 30 HR for him seems like an easy mark IF he returns to form.
    That's why they call it gambling.

  11. #10
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Im going over on votto and bruce and under on cueto. I have a feeling his production is going to take a hit this year

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    Re: Vegas over/under

    under
    over
    over

  13. #12
    Member smixsell's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Over
    Over
    Over

    PS

    Reds win 100 games and the World Series


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  15. #13
    Go Reds Go! UKFlounder's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    To me, Bruce & Cueto look like automatic overs. Then again, Vegas wins more than they lose and I've heard the concept of the "sucker bet" before, so I'm glad I'm keeping my money in my pockets.

  16. #14
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I wonder what the split is for what comes in, over vs under. With injuries taken into acct, you gotta think unders come in more frequently.
    The bookmakers set the line so that they get half the bets on each side, that way they are guaranteed to make money. Once the betting starts, if more than half the bets are coming in on one side the bookmakers will adjust the line to get more bets on the other side.

    When bookmakers set the line for a sporting event they are not actually trying to predict the outcome of the game, they are trying to make sure they get an equal amount of money wagered on each side of the bet. That way the losing bets will pay off the winning bets and the bookie gets to keep the 10% vigorish paid by the losers.

    For this reason we can be certain that almost exactly half of the bettors will choose the over and the other half of the bettors will choose the under. If the betting ratio begins to tilt one way or the other then the bookmakers will adjust the over/under line up or down to make sure the betting rate stays at 50/50, thus ensuring themselves a 5% profit on the total amount wagered.

  17. #15
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    The bookmakers set the line so that they get half the bets on each side, that way they are guaranteed to make money. Once the betting starts, if more than half the bets are coming in on one side the bookmakers will adjust the line to get more bets on the other side.

    When bookmakers set the line for a sporting event they are not actually trying to predict the outcome of the game, they are trying to make sure they get an equal amount of money wagered on each side of the bet. That way the losing bets will pay off the winning bets and the bookie gets to keep the 10% vigorish paid by the losers.

    For this reason we can be certain that almost exactly half of the bettors will choose the over and the other half of the bettors will choose the under. If the betting ratio begins to tilt one way or the other then the bookmakers will adjust the over/under line up or down to make sure the betting rate stays at 50/50, thus ensuring themselves a 5% profit on the total amount wagered.
    Yep. And that's why I wondered if the under was more likely to come in as the average bettor would look at this in a full season type of way.


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