Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 19

Thread: Vegas over/under

  1. #1
    Member RedsfaninMT's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Bozeman, MT
    Posts
    1,461

    Vegas over/under

    As tweeted by L. McAllister via Sportsbook.com,

    Votto 27.5 HR
    Bruce, 32.5 HR
    Cueto, 13.5 Wins

    Those are the only lines on any Reds players. If I were a betting man, there are a whole lot of overs I would take from that site. Price at 15.5 wins and Cain at 14.5 wins seem like pretty good bets to me. So do Cueto and Votto.
    Last edited by RedsfaninMT; 03-04-2013 at 11:09 AM.


  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    242

    Re: Vegas over/under

    I'd go under on Votto homers, under on Bruce homers, over on Cueto wins...but on all of em, a LOT depends on health.

  4. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    1,196

    Re: Vegas over/under

    I was in Vegas a week ago and put $20 on the Reds to win it all (11/1 odds at the Venetian). They didn't have any prop bets listed or I probably would've put some more money down.

  5. #4
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    16,358

    Re: Vegas over/under

    I wonder what the split is for what comes in, over vs under. With injuries taken into acct, you gotta think unders come in more frequently.

  6. #5
    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Mid Atlantic, USA
    Posts
    16,159

    Re: Vegas over/under

    Over on Bruce and under on the other two.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

  7. #6
    Member RedsfaninMT's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Bozeman, MT
    Posts
    1,461

    Re: Vegas over/under

    Seems as though folks are pessimistic about Cueto. He doesn't win 14 games, then the rest of the staff better pick things up substantially. And is the thought on Votto that he won't get his power back? 30 HR for him seems like an easy mark IF he returns to form.

  8. #7
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    17,848

    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I wonder what the split is for what comes in, over vs under. With injuries taken into acct, you gotta think unders come in more frequently.
    Yeah Vegas accounts for that. Otherwise you are right, you could bet on all the unders and you would come out ahead. But they probably trim 5-10 percent or so off a full healthy season projection.

  9. #8
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    17,848

    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsfaninMT View Post
    Seems as though folks are pessimistic about Cueto. He doesn't win 14 games, then the rest of the staff better pick things up substantially. And is the thought on Votto that he won't get his power back? 30 HR for him seems like an easy mark IF he returns to form.
    Ask Cliff Lee his opinion on this.

  10. #9
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    16,358

    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsfaninMT View Post
    And is the thought on Votto that he won't get his power back? 30 HR for him seems like an easy mark IF he returns to form.
    That's why they call it gambling.

  11. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    297

    Re: Vegas over/under

    Im going over on votto and bruce and under on cueto. I have a feeling his production is going to take a hit this year

  12. #11
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Bridgetown
    Posts
    1,543

    Re: Vegas over/under

    under
    over
    over

  13. #12
    Member smixsell's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Mississippi
    Posts
    1,344

    Re: Vegas over/under

    Over
    Over
    Over

    PS

    Reds win 100 games and the World Series


  14. Likes:

    Sean_CaseyRules (03-05-2013)

  15. #13
    Go Reds Go! UKFlounder's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Northern KY
    Posts
    2,838

    Re: Vegas over/under

    To me, Bruce & Cueto look like automatic overs. Then again, Vegas wins more than they lose and I've heard the concept of the "sucker bet" before, so I'm glad I'm keeping my money in my pockets.

  16. #14
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Hamilton, OH
    Posts
    3,038

    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I wonder what the split is for what comes in, over vs under. With injuries taken into acct, you gotta think unders come in more frequently.
    The bookmakers set the line so that they get half the bets on each side, that way they are guaranteed to make money. Once the betting starts, if more than half the bets are coming in on one side the bookmakers will adjust the line to get more bets on the other side.

    When bookmakers set the line for a sporting event they are not actually trying to predict the outcome of the game, they are trying to make sure they get an equal amount of money wagered on each side of the bet. That way the losing bets will pay off the winning bets and the bookie gets to keep the 10% vigorish paid by the losers.

    For this reason we can be certain that almost exactly half of the bettors will choose the over and the other half of the bettors will choose the under. If the betting ratio begins to tilt one way or the other then the bookmakers will adjust the over/under line up or down to make sure the betting rate stays at 50/50, thus ensuring themselves a 5% profit on the total amount wagered.

  17. #15
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    16,358

    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    The bookmakers set the line so that they get half the bets on each side, that way they are guaranteed to make money. Once the betting starts, if more than half the bets are coming in on one side the bookmakers will adjust the line to get more bets on the other side.

    When bookmakers set the line for a sporting event they are not actually trying to predict the outcome of the game, they are trying to make sure they get an equal amount of money wagered on each side of the bet. That way the losing bets will pay off the winning bets and the bookie gets to keep the 10% vigorish paid by the losers.

    For this reason we can be certain that almost exactly half of the bettors will choose the over and the other half of the bettors will choose the under. If the betting ratio begins to tilt one way or the other then the bookmakers will adjust the over/under line up or down to make sure the betting rate stays at 50/50, thus ensuring themselves a 5% profit on the total amount wagered.
    Yep. And that's why I wondered if the under was more likely to come in as the average bettor would look at this in a full season type of way.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | Gallen5862 | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator