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  1. #1
    Member RedsfaninMT's Avatar
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    Vegas over/under

    As tweeted by L. McAllister via Sportsbook.com,

    Votto 27.5 HR
    Bruce, 32.5 HR
    Cueto, 13.5 Wins

    Those are the only lines on any Reds players. If I were a betting man, there are a whole lot of overs I would take from that site. Price at 15.5 wins and Cain at 14.5 wins seem like pretty good bets to me. So do Cueto and Votto.
    Last edited by RedsfaninMT; 03-04-2013 at 11:09 AM.

  2. #2
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    I'd go under on Votto homers, under on Bruce homers, over on Cueto wins...but on all of em, a LOT depends on health.

  3. #3
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    I was in Vegas a week ago and put $20 on the Reds to win it all (11/1 odds at the Venetian). They didn't have any prop bets listed or I probably would've put some more money down.

  4. #4
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    I wonder what the split is for what comes in, over vs under. With injuries taken into acct, you gotta think unders come in more frequently.

  5. #5
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I wonder what the split is for what comes in, over vs under. With injuries taken into acct, you gotta think unders come in more frequently.
    Yeah Vegas accounts for that. Otherwise you are right, you could bet on all the unders and you would come out ahead. But they probably trim 5-10 percent or so off a full healthy season projection.

  6. #6
    Member redsrule2500's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Yeah Vegas accounts for that. Otherwise you are right, you could bet on all the unders and you would come out ahead. But they probably trim 5-10 percent or so off a full healthy season projection.
    Vegas only measures public opinion of betters, they don't actually measure the sports/players. The goal of any Vegas Casino is to have their odds directly in the middle of all the people placing bets (50% bet above, 50% bet below).

    This way they can take 100% of the "cost to play"

    Edit: I now see this was addressed above by AtomicDumpling as well.
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  7. #7
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    Vegas only measures public opinion of betters, they don't actually measure the sports/players. The goal of any Vegas Casino is to have their odds directly in the middle of all the people placing bets (50% bet above, 50% bet below).

    This way they can take 100% of the "cost to play"

    Edit: I now see this was addressed above by AtomicDumpling as well.
    It is all "baked in the cake". Pro gamblers would be all over it if Vegas didn't set the lines a touch low. Either that or Vegas can adjust the "juice" so that you win more for an over bet than an under bet.

    Point being, the threat of injuries is compensated for.

    If Vegas tries to set the line "falsey" so that Joe Schmo public bets 50/50 on it pro gamblers will pounce all over it and Vegas knows it. It's a fine line to walk.

  8. #8
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I wonder what the split is for what comes in, over vs under. With injuries taken into acct, you gotta think unders come in more frequently.
    The bookmakers set the line so that they get half the bets on each side, that way they are guaranteed to make money. Once the betting starts, if more than half the bets are coming in on one side the bookmakers will adjust the line to get more bets on the other side.

    When bookmakers set the line for a sporting event they are not actually trying to predict the outcome of the game, they are trying to make sure they get an equal amount of money wagered on each side of the bet. That way the losing bets will pay off the winning bets and the bookie gets to keep the 10% vigorish paid by the losers.

    For this reason we can be certain that almost exactly half of the bettors will choose the over and the other half of the bettors will choose the under. If the betting ratio begins to tilt one way or the other then the bookmakers will adjust the over/under line up or down to make sure the betting rate stays at 50/50, thus ensuring themselves a 5% profit on the total amount wagered.

  9. #9
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    The bookmakers set the line so that they get half the bets on each side, that way they are guaranteed to make money. Once the betting starts, if more than half the bets are coming in on one side the bookmakers will adjust the line to get more bets on the other side.

    When bookmakers set the line for a sporting event they are not actually trying to predict the outcome of the game, they are trying to make sure they get an equal amount of money wagered on each side of the bet. That way the losing bets will pay off the winning bets and the bookie gets to keep the 10% vigorish paid by the losers.

    For this reason we can be certain that almost exactly half of the bettors will choose the over and the other half of the bettors will choose the under. If the betting ratio begins to tilt one way or the other then the bookmakers will adjust the over/under line up or down to make sure the betting rate stays at 50/50, thus ensuring themselves a 5% profit on the total amount wagered.
    Yep. And that's why I wondered if the under was more likely to come in as the average bettor would look at this in a full season type of way.

  10. #10
    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Over on Bruce and under on the other two.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

  11. #11
    Member RedsfaninMT's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Seems as though folks are pessimistic about Cueto. He doesn't win 14 games, then the rest of the staff better pick things up substantially. And is the thought on Votto that he won't get his power back? 30 HR for him seems like an easy mark IF he returns to form.

  12. #12
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsfaninMT View Post
    Seems as though folks are pessimistic about Cueto. He doesn't win 14 games, then the rest of the staff better pick things up substantially. And is the thought on Votto that he won't get his power back? 30 HR for him seems like an easy mark IF he returns to form.
    Ask Cliff Lee his opinion on this.

  13. #13
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsfaninMT View Post
    And is the thought on Votto that he won't get his power back? 30 HR for him seems like an easy mark IF he returns to form.
    That's why they call it gambling.

  14. #14
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    Re: Vegas over/under

    Im going over on votto and bruce and under on cueto. I have a feeling his production is going to take a hit this year

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    Re: Vegas over/under

    under
    over
    over


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