A 162 game season consists of 1458 innings. A 200-inning starting pitcher is responsible for 13.7% of the inning's work. A 70-inning closer is responsible for 4.3% of the total innings. It's hard to say that a closer has a similar impact to a club's success based on their participation compared to starters.
RANDY IN INDY (03-21-2013)
I find it hard to believe that Chapman will be worse than Mike Leake. And "Bad Arroyo" screws the pooch pretty regularly too. Not to mention the enigma that is David Bailey.[*]Maybe they don't want to lose games experimenting this year because they feel they have the horses to go far and don't want to screw the pooch?
Maybe. But not in games that count. His performance certainly hasn't shown anything conclusive statistically and there have been no injuries.[*]Maybe they tried to get the answer over the last 6 weeks and found it?
I could get behind that, but he doesn't have THAT long a contract either.[*]Maybe they plan on a slower transformation to starter that isn't as aggressive as the average RZ posters idea of what should go down?
Tautologies don't really get us anywhere.[*]Maybe they are treating him different than other pitchers because they recognize that he is different than other pitchers?
Or maybe they are dumber. We just don't know, do we?[*]Maybe they are smarter than they are getting credit for?
Are you implying that I've said they are dumber than a box of rocks?[*]Maybe they are dumber than a box of rocks and a 90 loss season can only get back the glory of the Bowden/O'Brien era and the brain trust of Bob Boone and Jerry Narron?[/LIST]
"Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013
A major league starter usually starts about 30 times in a season, barring injury. If that starter does poorly, he can cause the team to lose numerous games.
Have you ever turned on the ballgame in the second inning and found the Reds down 4 runs? I have too often to count. I'd like to avoid that while Chapman is undergoing some experiment.
Again, you think it's silly because you are assuming Chapman will be very good to elite as a starter right out of the chute. If it goes the other way, the Reds could suffer as a team.
I'd rather avoid that result, unless the pros within the organization are comfortable that the guy is ready to do well as a starter.
70 high leverage innings can be just as valuable as 200 regular innings. Of course, the way Baker uses a closer, we can't assume the Reds closer will get 70 high leverage innings. That's why I like RMR's idea of using Chapman as the fireman, instead of the closer.
"Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.
One idea that many have failed to learn is that there is often a good reason why a well seasoned, professional FO like this does what they do. And why they are where they are. These guys have been killing it over the past few years and deserve every benefit of the doubt.