Chapman

[dougdirt]

But if the value of relievers is doubtful to you, please get a DVD of the 1990 World Series which shows just how valuable they can be.

It will show that as a group, relievers are quite valuable.

[RedEye]

I might add that one of the things I admire about the job Walt has done is his ability to be patient and take the long view. The team is set up to win for a window of 4-5 years now and I'd like to see whether Chapman can lead our staff rather than provide late-inning gas.

[gilpdawg]

One theory on the report leaking, then being officially denied, and Dusty getting snappy: Dusty was the leak. He keeps trying to sabotage the plan and Jocketty/Price aren't letting him have his way. If so, it's only complicated the Chapman situation and undermined Dusty's position with the club.

If Dusty is being insubordinate he needs to be removed from the position. Walt/Cast are in charge.

Sent from my Transformer TF101 using Tapatalk HD

[Wonderful Monds]

Chapman's 2012 wasn't even the best relief season of the year.

Kimbrel and Chapman were pretty even. Just because 2 of the greatest relief seasons ever happened in the same same season does not diminish them.

Rodney was not on Chapman's level, ERA or not.

[Wonderful Monds]

Means dial back the hyperbole about Chapman as a closer. He's really good, but this "one of the greatest relief seasons ever" stuff is just piling on.

Except for when it happened.

[REDREAD]

please.

They saw 1000% more of Drew Stubbs and it took three years to decide to trade him.

They see more of every player. At some point we as fans have to recognize the Reds kinda suck at developing. Bailey, Frazier and Stubbs are prime examples.

This is a very disappointing decision, and what is worse to me is, 30 starts by Mike Leake.

fail.

Without bringing in someone else from outside of the organization, Stubbs was the best option in CF the past 3 years. Better than Heisey.

I don't see how they failed with Frazier. They entered the season not counting on him to do anything. When he played well, he got more playing time. They put Frazier in a position to succeed and he did. Now in his sophomore year, he's being handed the 3b job. I'm not sure what else they could've done differently.
Don't say "bench Rolen" because Rolen was a huge reason for their 2nd half surge.

Bailey.. I'll give you that one. A previ
ous GM called Homer up way too early as a desperate publicity stunt. If they had taken their time with Homer, he would've probably been more productive at an earlier date.

I don't see what's wrong with Leake. Many teams would love to have a 5th starter as good as him. It's just not realistic to have 5 Latos in the rotation.
Bottom line is I expect Leake to produce quality starts at a reasonable rate and eat innings. That's fine for a 5th starter. He's unlikely to pitch in the playoffs barring an injury. He's relatively inexpensvie.. Not sure why everyone hates Leake now (other than he's not Chapman).

[dougdirt]

Kimbrel and Chapman were pretty even. Just because 2 of the greatest relief seasons ever happened in the same same season does not diminish them.

Rodney was not on Chapman's level, ERA or not.

Fernando Rodney threw 3 more innings and gave up 7 fewer runs (in fact, he only gave up 5 all season!) and blew just two saves. He was absolutely on his level. Chapman allowed more than 100% more runs than Rodney did, in fewer innings.

Rodney posted the lowest ERA for a reliever since 1900 (I didn't check further back).

[REDREAD]

Even if Chapmans pitches are merely "good" as a starter, a good starter > elite closer.

So are you saying that Bronson > Chapman?

[Wonderful Monds]

Fernando Rodney threw 3 more innings and gave up 7 fewer runs (in fact, he only gave up 5 all season!) and blew just two saves. He was absolutely on his level. Chapman allowed more than 100% more runs than Rodney did, in fewer innings.

Chapman also struck out 15/9 to Rodney's ~9

ERA would not be used to evaluate a starting pitcher in a discussion like this, I'm not sure why we are using it here.

[Kc61]

Apologies for mischaracterizing. The point remains, though, that you can make the argument the other way -- that rotation depth and top-end SP talent are the keys to postseason (and regular season) success and that the Reds are nuts not to at least try to add another league average arm to the mix (with the potential for much, much more). Having Chapman at the back of the pen means little in the playoffs when you lose a starter and his replacement is giving up 10 runs in the first inning. But if you lose your ace and can replace him with a guy who can dominate a team for 7 innings, your whole scenario just improves.

I agree that rotation depth and top-end SP are more important than anyone in the bullpen. I've never denied it. That's the basis for even thinking about Chappy in the rotation.

But that's not really the issue here. The issue is taking this particular pitcher, who has a key role now, and making a big transformation with him on the eve of a potentially championship season.

To me, that's a tough call. And I would be inclined to leave him alone in the pen, unless the Reds firmly believe he will rather quickly become an Ace starter. If they do have that belief, then I'd go for Chapman as starter.

[dougdirt]

Chapman also struck out 15/9 to Rodney's ~9

ERA would not be used to evaluate a starting pitcher in a discussion like this, I'm not sure why we are using it here.

Is the job to strike guys out or avoid giving up runs? Rodney gave up the fewest runs per 9 innings of any reliever since 1900 and you say saying he wasn't on the same level of Chapman because Chapman struck out a bunch of guys. Rodney is an elite groundball machine who also strikes out more than a batter per inning and doesn't walk batters.

[MrRedLegger]

Man I sure am outraged that Aroldis Chapman will be defending and protecting the team's leads in 2013.

[dougdirt]

Man I sure am outraged that Aroldis Chapman will be defending and protecting the team's leads in 2013.

No one is outraged that we have Chapman on the team. They are bothered that he isn't being utilized properly.

[Chip R]

I think it's fair to say the Reds are in the position of picking between two good decisions. I lean toward starting him as well (and the team has pretty aggressively walked back the report that he'll be closing), but if he's closing I'm not going to be crestfallen.

Same here. I know the rotation isn't broke but I don't want to fix it, I want to improve it. The Bengals made the playoffs last year. The Bearcats made the NCAA tournament. Believe you me, there's plenty of room for improvement for both teams as well as the Reds.

However, the problem with Chapman in the rotation is judging his success. In his first start if he goes 5 innings, strikes out 8 guys and gives up 3 runs, is that a success or a failure? If that's his average for the first 4-5 starts, I think people are going to start to wonder - especially in this instant gratification society - if he should go back to the bullpen - especially if the bullpen blows a few saves. I think some believe that once he's a starter, he will sustain his .81 WHIP, 1.51 ERA, .450 OPS against. If he doesn't meet those expectations, people are going to wonder what's wrong with him. If he's not getting TOR stats and the Reds - by hard luck or whatever reason - aren't winning games he starts in, how long are the Reds going to stick with him in that role?

[RedEye]

This is one topic where I would have preferred Dusty just giggle like Marvin Lewis. His comments to the press have done nothing but confuse the issue -- if not Chapman himself.