"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
It's rare to have such young talent and I'd say this rotation COULD, settle down, be historic.
On the plus side, thanks to dynamic pricing I should be able to watch every game Mike Leake pitches for something close to $.99 per ticket.
24 Years and Counting...
I wonder how much Cueto's spring will weigh on the Chapman decision. I have always felt less nervous about Cueto this season because of Chapman's presence in the rotation.
"Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.
In terms of how the bullpen performs this year, we have enough depth to have quality pitchers handle the high leverage innings with or without Chapman. And from an overall innings standpoint Chapman is about 18% of the total innings.
So let's say you replace his 2.50 ERA with a 4.00 ERA. That moves the bullpen's total ERA by (4.00 - 2.50 * .18) or 0.27 points -- 1 extra ER allowed for every 36 relief innings -- or about 1 run every 12 games.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
I still blame Ryan Madson.
We can all boo him on opening day and be done with it.
Secondly, his innings as a starter would only have to be "limited" for one season. In all subsequent seasons there would be no limit. If the Reds had handled Chapman properly from the beginning he would have no limits now.
Get as many innings as possible from your best pitchers, then you won't need as many innings from your worst pitchers. You will give up fewer runs and win more games.
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