I don't agree with that. You often hear about pitchers attempting getting through the order the first time with only 1 or 2 of their pitches. Then they can break out the full arsenal the second and third time thru. I'm sure I don't have to tell you that, but I guess you disagree with the notion of it.
Why wouldn't they be able to pick it up in at bat one, but then be able to in at bats 2 or 3? It isn't as if you are going out and facing Barry Zito and he breaks off a slider (which would be shocking, since he doesn't throw one). You are facing Chapman, a guy you know has one and will throw it.
We certainly hear about and it does happen, that guys go through the line up first time through with 90% fastballs. I don't know that a guy mixing in his other pitches are going to make it easier to hit them later in the game though, assuming they aren't of lesser quality.
Lefties with a great second pitch have not needed a third pitch. Koufax, Carlton, R. Johnson, Glavine, off the top of my head. I don't know if Chapman's slider is in that class, but it could be.
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The good hitters might, I'm just thinking getting multiple looks at a guy increases their chances (a lot). Sometimes even crummy guys are good for three innings (and a reason why these results we're seeing in Spring Training for these 2 and 3 inning starts mean little to me). Knowing he has a slider is different than knowing what he has working for him that particular day. Pitchers don't pitch the same each time out and hitters get a read the first time they face the guy which give them an advantage the second time through. That's something a short reliever never needs to deal with..
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
That is really "sideline, behind the keyboard" thinking. The more a professional hitter see's a pitchers, stuff, the easier it is to pick it up, but in truth, it never is particularly easy. Against a really good pitcher with good stuff, the more you see it and measure it, the better chance you have to make an adjustment and hit it. It's pretty obvious, (maybe that's a stretch with some folks) that all pitches are not exactly the same from pitcher to pitcher, even from game to game. Some days your slider, curveball, whatever, is better and sharper than others. To discount and think that seeing it one or two times doesn't make a difference to a good hitter is incredibly short sighted.
No, it is a "those guys are professional hitters" kind of thinking. Aroldis Chapman has been around long enough that guys know what his slider looks like. Yes, some days it isn't as good as others, but that doesn't change anything about being able to tell if it was a slider quickly enough or not. And THAT is what makes the difference.
You're sadly mistaken and flat out wrong on this one. Being able to tell what a pitch is and being able to hit it are two separate things. You haven't a clue if you think seeing a pitcher more than one at bat doesn't make a difference to most hitters. THAT you make such a definitive statement like that is quite telling.
Of course being able to tell what it is and being able to hit it are different things. But if you can tell a slider is coming, then you are more likely to hit it. If you can't tell it is coming, then you aren't.
What I am saying is, unless you are tipping the pitch and seeing it more allows you to figure out that a guy is tipping it, then it isn't going to make a difference between seeing it once or seeing it 50 times. Either you can tell it is coming or you can't. And if you can tell it is coming, it is going to be just as easy to hit based on your ability to hit it the first time or the 15th time. Where as if you can't tell it is a slider it isn't going to matter if you see it once or one hundred times because you still don't know how to read a slider from a fastball.
That's incredibly naive. The more you see a guy throw a pitch, the more likely you are to be able to pick up the release point, pick up the spin, gauge its location, break, and speed, and put the bat on it. Basically, knowing what a pitch is doing on any given day. Repetition. Huge in the game of baseball. You may know your stats, but you are way out of your league on this one.
TSJ55 (03-23-2013)
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