Chapman

[dougdirt]

That's incredibly naive. The more you see a guy throw a pitch, the more likely you are to be able to pick up the release point, pick up the spin, gauge its location, break, and speed, and put the bat on it. Basically, knowing what a pitch is doing on any given day. Repetition. Huge in the game of baseball. You may know your stats, but you are way out of your league on this one.

I don't think I am out of my league on this one at all. Picking up the spin is key, but that doesn't vary from pitcher to pitcher. Guys can either do it or they can't. Seeing an individual pitcher more isn't going to give you that skill.

With a guy like Chapman who has been around the league long enough, guys know what his slider looks like and does. Again, this isn't like Cole Hamels is dropping a slider on them (which would be a shock, since he has never thrown one). Yes, the pitch itself may vary from game to game a little bit, but it can also vary from inning to inning. Or even from pitch to pitch within an at bat. But generally, you know at this point, how much the pitch is going to break. You know at this point how fast the pitch is going to be too.

Yes, if you have never seen him before in your life and you didn't watch any video or read a scouting report on him, seeing him a bunch would make a real difference. But for most Major Leaguers, I just don't buy that seeing him more is going to give them some advantage on hitting any given pitch unless they are: A) tipping the pitch, B) losing velocity/movement on the pitch because of wearing down over the game/year.

If the pitcher is using the same mechanics/velocity to throw the pitch each time, the batter needs to know that the pitch could be a possibility, be able to read that pitch versus other pitches, and know the strikezone. None of those things are skillsets that change by seeing a pitcher more.

[RollyInRaleigh]

I don't think I am out of my league on this one at all. Picking up the spin is key, but that doesn't vary from pitcher to pitcher. Guys can either do it or they can't. Seeing an individual pitcher more isn't going to give you that skill.

With a guy like Chapman who has been around the league long enough, guys know what his slider looks like and does. Again, this isn't like Cole Hamels is dropping a slider on them (which would be a shock, since he has never thrown one). Yes, the pitch itself may vary from game to game a little bit, but it can also vary from inning to inning. Or even from pitch to pitch within an at bat. But generally, you know at this point, how much the pitch is going to break. You know at this point how fast the pitch is going to be too.

Yes, if you have never seen him before in your life and you didn't watch any video or read a scouting report on him, seeing him a bunch would make a real difference. But for most Major Leaguers, I just don't buy that seeing him more is going to give them some advantage on hitting any given pitch unless they are: A) tipping the pitch, B) losing velocity/movement on the pitch because of wearing down over the game/year.

If the pitcher is using the same mechanics/velocity to throw the pitch each time, the batter needs to know that the pitch could be a possibility, be able to read that pitch versus other pitches, and know the strikezone. None of those things are skillsets that change by seeing a pitcher more.

OK

[RadfordVA]

That's incredibly naive. The more you see a guy throw a pitch, the more likely you are to be able to pick up the release point, pick up the spin, gauge its location, break, and speed, and put the bat on it. Basically, knowing what a pitch is doing on any given day. Repetition. Huge in the game of baseball. You may know your stats, but you are way out of your league on this one.

Very true. Just seeing a pitcher is so important for hitters. Ask any coach.
Check out this tweet from Steve Springer on twitter just yesterday. He's a scout for Blue Jays and a renown hitting instructor a lot of college coaches lean on. Always big on watching pitcher. Good follow for people who are interested in learning to hit. I use a lot of his ideas for teaching my sons. Even when throwing BP to someone it makes a difference the more you see them.

steve springer ‏@qualityatbats 22 Mar

Watching pitcher is one of the most important things u can do-he's the test on Baseball/sb field-the more u see him the more comfy u feel

[dougdirt]

Very true. Just seeing a pitcher is so important for hitters. Ask any coach.
Check out this tweet from Steve Springer on twitter just yesterday. He's a scout for Blue Jays and a renown hitting instructor a lot of college coaches lean on. Always big on watching pitcher. Good follow for people who are interested in learning to hit. I use a lot of his ideas for teaching my sons. Even when throwing BP to someone it makes a difference the more you see them.

steve springer ‏@qualityatbats 22 Mar

Watching pitcher is one of the most important things u can do-he's the test on Baseball/sb field-the more u see him the more comfy u feel

Of course watching them is important. They might be tipping pitches. Professional guys aren't like youth or even college guys though. The guys they face probably are tipping just about everything they throw. You have more time to adjust as well, so you don't need to be able to read slider/curve/change nearly as quick.

There may be some "comfort" factor in there, but I don't buy that it makes much of a difference at this level. Being able to pick up which pitch is coming in enough time is what matters and that skillset translates against all pitchers.

[RadfordVA]

Of course watching them is important. They might be tipping pitches. Professional guys aren't like youth or even college guys though. The guys they face probably are tipping just about everything they throw. You have more time to adjust as well, so you don't need to be able to read slider/curve/change nearly as quick.

There may be some "comfort" factor in there, but I don't buy that it makes much of a difference at this level. Being able to pick up which pitch is coming in enough time is what matters and that skillset translates against all pitchers.

He isn't saying watch them to see if they are tipping pitches. Pretty sure he would have explicitly said that at some point if thats what he meant. So why do all stats across the board go up the more times you see pitcher in a game? Just the pitcher getting tired I guess.

[dougdirt]

He isn't saying watch them to see if they are tipping pitches. Pretty sure he would have explicitly said that at some point if thats what he meant. So why do all stats across the board go up the more times you see pitcher in a game? Just the pitcher getting tired I guess.

It certainly has to do with the pitching getting tired some. Their pitches tend to lose a little velocity, the pitches tend to be a little less sharp and heck, they might even tip a pitch or two because they are a little more tired and losing their mechanics some.

If seeing pitchers more made such a difference, teams would hit a lot better in August and September than in May and June. Pitchers would progressively get worse with each year they stayed in the Majors because more and more guys saw them. But that doesn't really happen.

[kaldaniels]

It certainly has to do with the pitching getting tired some. Their pitches tend to lose a little velocity, the pitches tend to be a little less sharp and heck, they might even tip a pitch or two because they are a little more tired and losing their mechanics some.

If seeing pitchers more made such a difference, teams would hit a lot better in August and September than in May and June. Pitchers would progressively get worse with each year they stayed in the Majors because more and more guys saw them. But that doesn't really happen.

The premise is that seeing a pitcher more on the same day helps the batter. I am certainly not extrapolating that to the full season.

[RollyInRaleigh]

I find it hilarious.

[dougdirt]

The premise is that seeing a pitcher more on the same day helps the batter. I am certainly not extrapolating that to the full season.

Gotcha.

Well, let me ask, what is a batter going to pick up in at bats 2-4 that he couldn't pick up in at bat 1, assuming the pitcher has a scouting report on him, he maintains his mechanics and doesn't tip anything and his velocity doesn't take a large spike? That is the part I simply don't get.

My contention is that the batters skillset of knowing the strikezone, the pitches a guy throws and his ability to figure out which pitch is which as it is coming in translates to every at bat, regardless of the pitcher and that seeing a guy 1 or 100 times isn't going to change any of that unless the pitcher changes something he was doing from previous times.

[kaldaniels]

Gotcha.

Well, let me ask, what is a batter going to pick up in at bats 2-4 that he couldn't pick up in at bat 1, assuming the pitcher has a scouting report on him, he maintains his mechanics and doesn't tip anything and his velocity doesn't take a large spike? That is the part I simply don't get.

My contention is that the batters skillset of knowing the strikezone, the pitches a guy throws and his ability to figure out which pitch is which as it is coming in translates to every at bat, regardless of the pitcher and that seeing a guy 1 or 100 times isn't going to change any of that unless the pitcher changes something he was doing from previous times.

And we just disagree but at least we are clear on what about. I think the more a hitter sees a pitcher on a given day, the better he will get at recognizing pitches. You don't. That's fine.

[dougdirt]

And we just disagree but at least we are clear on what about. I think the more a hitter sees a pitcher on a given day, the better he will get at recognizing pitches. You don't. That's fine.

I have to ask, what would make him better at recognizing the pitches, assuming he isn't tipping them?

[kaldaniels]

I have to ask, what would make him better at recognizing the pitches, assuming he isn't tipping them?

I'm not a pro hitter. But I have to hypothesize seeing the pitch/spin in real-life, real-time trumps the scouting videos.

[dougdirt]

I'm not a pro hitter. But I have to hypothesize seeing the pitch/spin in real-life, real-time trumps the scouting videos.

Certainly it does, but does the spin on X pitchers slider really differ from the spin on Y pitchers slider?

Using Pitch F/X as an example, we can easily identify pitches based on their movements. Those movements are created by the spin of the pitch (along with velocity and gravity). If the spin differentiated much on different guys pitches, we wouldn't be able to easily determine which pitches guys were throwing via Pitch F/X. But we can, because the spin on every slider is awfully close. Same for the curveball. The change up differs a little bit, because the fastball spin rate differs for pitchers because they are all throwing different pitches even though we call them all fastballs, 2 seam, four seam and cutters are all "fastball", but all move rather differently. Cutters generally have -2 to 2 inches of run. 4 seamers generally have 2 to 8 inches of run. 2 seamers have 6-14 inches of run. But we lump those all together at times and they aren't the same pitch at all. The change up spin plays off of whichever fastball you throw, so the spin is going to vary some depending on which fastball you throw, but that change up is generally going to have 2-3 inches more run and 2-3 inches more sink on it, while being slower of course, than the fastball you choose to throw.

[westofyou]

I'm not a pro hitter. But I have to hypothesize seeing the pitch/spin in real-life, real-time trumps the scouting videos.

Looking at the ball has always been key as seen in this quote from FC Lane's book "Batting"

Big Ed Konetchy summed up the situation as it applies to Major League batters, fairly and concisely. He said, "There are just two ways to bat at all. One is to follow the ball with your eye from the instant it leaves the pitcher's hand. The other is by knowledge of the pitchers' peculiarities and his style of delivery, to try to figure what he is going to throw next and be prepared for it.

Following the ball with your eye is much the more important of the two. But still I do not believe there is a good batter in the game who does not occasionally try to predict what the pitcher will give him next."

[dubc47834]

I'm not a pro hitter. But I have to hypothesize seeing the pitch/spin in real-life, real-time trumps the scouting videos.

I would say release point and seeing how sharp a pitcher is on said day.