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Thread: Chapman

  1. #676
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    It certainly has to do with the pitching getting tired some. Their pitches tend to lose a little velocity, the pitches tend to be a little less sharp and heck, they might even tip a pitch or two because they are a little more tired and losing their mechanics some.

    If seeing pitchers more made such a difference, teams would hit a lot better in August and September than in May and June. Pitchers would progressively get worse with each year they stayed in the Majors because more and more guys saw them. But that doesn't really happen.
    I would say a lot of pitchers actually hit their groove more in the 4-6 inning. How often do you hear pitchers say man I felt great and locked in that first inning but after that was horrible. Usually it's I had to get a feel for my pitches then once I got locked in I felt good.

    The few starts I looked at on F/X had pitchers always hitting max speed on pitches 40-60 and yet the OPS of a starter facing batter 2nd time is .039 pts higher than 1st time. Their stuff according to F/X is sharper and harder yet hitters are doing better. What else could you possibly contribute that to? Other than seeing pitchers more on that given day helps? If you disagree with that than you are disagreeing with everything I've ever read from someone involved in game. Which I understand some people love to do, but this taking it to the extreme in my opinion.

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    TSJ55 (03-23-2013), westofyou (03-23-2013)

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  4. #677
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    This is some funny stuff.
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
    Fame is man given: be thankful.
    Conceit is self given: be careful.

    John Wooden

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    bigredmechanism (03-23-2013)

  6. #678
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    You got it right, Radford.
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
    Fame is man given: be thankful.
    Conceit is self given: be careful.

    John Wooden

  7. #679
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    I would say a lot of pitchers actually hit their groove more in the 4-6 inning. How often do you hear pitchers say man I felt great and locked in that first inning but after that was horrible. Usually it's I had to get a feel for my pitches then once I got locked in I felt good.

    The few starts I looked at on F/X had pitchers always hitting max speed on pitches 40-60 and yet the OPS of a starter facing batter 2nd time is .039 pts higher than 1st time. Their stuff according to F/X is sharper and harder yet hitters are doing better. What else could you possibly contribute that to? Other than seeing pitchers more on that given day helps? If you disagree with that than you are disagreeing with everything I've ever read from someone involved in game. Which I understand some people love to do, but this taking it to the extreme in my opinion.
    First, I will just say that looking at a few starts doesn't tell much of anything.

    Secondly, it is tough to discuss your example given that you don't cite who you looked at or when you looked at it.

    However, I did a little research. What I did was go to Fangraphs and look at every 10th pitcher on their leaderboard (of 88, including #88 Ervin Santana) as well as every Red starter from last year. I looked at their entire career splits for what they did the first, second and third time through the order. I left out the 4th time since most guys had very small sample sizes for the 4th time through the lineup. I looked at BB%, K% (both calculated as stat/PA) and OPS against. There were 13 pitchers in total. Here is the chart:



    Strikeout Rate
    It is worth noting that every single pitcher tested had a lower strikeout rate from the first time through to the second and from the second to the third. Every time. That certainly works against my side of things.

    Walk Rate
    Four of the 13 pitchers improved their walk rate from the first to second time through the lineup. Nine of 13 pitchers improved their walk rate from the second to third time through the lineup.

    OPS Against
    Four of the 13 pitchers improved their OPS against from the first to second time through the lineup. Six of the 13 pitchers improved their OPS against from the second to third time through the lineup.

    What does this tell us? Well, I would certainly agree that with this random sample, hitters are quite likely improving their ability to put the bat on the ball with seeing the pitcher on a given day more. Something I contended shouldn't happen. The walk rates being lower could be a by product of more contact being made, but more guys showed improvement the final time through, so maybe it is more than just the lowered contact rate since everyone had a lower K rate each time through. OPS Against though is interesting. We are a little more split there. I would actually like to see more done with all of this.

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    TSJ55 (03-24-2013)

  9. #680
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    First, I will just say that looking at a few starts doesn't tell much of anything.

    Secondly, it is tough to discuss your example given that you don't cite who you looked at or when you looked at it.

    However, I did a little research. What I did was go to Fangraphs and look at every 10th pitcher on their leaderboard (of 88, including #88 Ervin Santana) as well as every Red starter from last year. I looked at their entire career splits for what they did the first, second and third time through the order. I left out the 4th time since most guys had very small sample sizes for the 4th time through the lineup. I looked at BB%, K% (both calculated as stat/PA) and OPS against. There were 13 pitchers in total. Here is the chart:



    Strikeout Rate
    It is worth noting that every single pitcher tested had a lower strikeout rate from the first time through to the second and from the second to the third. Every time. That certainly works against my side of things.

    Walk Rate
    Four of the 13 pitchers improved their walk rate from the first to second time through the lineup. Nine of 13 pitchers improved their walk rate from the second to third time through the lineup.

    OPS Against
    Four of the 13 pitchers improved their OPS against from the first to second time through the lineup. Six of the 13 pitchers improved their OPS against from the second to third time through the lineup.

    What does this tell us? Well, I would certainly agree that with this random sample, hitters are quite likely improving their ability to put the bat on the ball with seeing the pitcher on a given day more. Something I contended shouldn't happen. The walk rates being lower could be a by product of more contact being made, but more guys showed improvement the final time through, so maybe it is more than just the lowered contact rate since everyone had a lower K rate each time through. OPS Against though is interesting. We are a little more split there. I would actually like to see more done with all of this.
    Nice work, but consider that any study would be with a biased population. Generally, the 88 guys you're talking about are ones good enough to start regularly and maintain their effectiveness multiple times through the order. The ones who really can't are in the bullpen and it's really the unanswered question with Chapman and the reason the conversion to starter can't be assumed as somethimg that would work out.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #681
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Nice work, but consider that any study would be with a biased population. Generally, the 88 guys you're talking about are ones good enough to start regularly and maintain their effectiveness multiple times through the order. The ones who really can't are in the bullpen and it's really the unanswered question with Chapman and the reason the conversion to starter can't be assumed as somethimg that would work out.
    Absolutely. My initial statement was that assuming not loss in velocity or a change in mechanics to "tip" a pitch there shouldn't be a difference from a hitters perspective. If someone can't do that for say 6 innings, then they don't really apply to what I was saying.

  11. #682
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    First, I will just say that looking at a few starts doesn't tell much of anything.

    Secondly, it is tough to discuss your example given that you don't cite who you looked at or when you looked at it.
    I was citing league splits on baseball reference. Times facing an opponent for SP. These stats are pretty consistent from season to season. You can see the K/BB rate steadily declines. You also have to consider the times a SP gets shelled in the first and doesn't even get to the lineup a second or third time so the better pitchers are pitching the bulk of the 2nd and 3rd Plate appearances, yet that first PA is still the least effective for the hitter. A lot of people have been pointing to these stats as a reason that using your pitchers in a tournament style fashion is the next big thing if anyone was bold enough to do it. Which I think will be a long time.


    Code:
                                                                                                                                                         
    Split                   G    PA    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR SB CS   BB   SO SO/BB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS   TB GDP HBP  SH  SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
    1st PA in G as SP    2592 24460 22066 2306 5420 1111 143 601 37 59 1758 5256  2.99 .246 .304 .391 .695 8620 425 170 316 147  48 218  .295    93    96
    2nd PA in G as SP    2580 22493 20257 2469 5252 1049 129 622 30 72 1664 4169  2.51 .259 .318 .416 .734 8425 402 155 274 140 108 226  .297   103    97
    3rd PA in G as SP    2439 16159 14589 1938 4022  795  96 475 16 58 1228 2662  2.17 .276 .334 .441 .775 6434 292 108 117 114 102 171  .307   114   100
    4th+ PA in G as SP    734  1632  1481  183  392   74  11  31  1  3  113  262  2.32 .265 .321 .392 .713  581  32  14  15   9  10  17  .302    98    97
    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
    Generated 3/24/2013.


    http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...12#times::none
    Last edited by RadfordVA; 03-24-2013 at 06:37 AM. Reason: inserted table

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  13. #683
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    I was citing league splits on baseball reference. Times facing an opponent for SP.
    I was more referring to the Pitch F/X stuff you were talking about looking at.

  14. #684
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I was more referring to the Pitch F/X stuff you were talking about looking at.
    Oh sorry. Is that even an arguement that you believe a starting pitcher has better stuff 1st time around in order than second time around? I looked at several starts from the brooksbaseball site and the pitcher consistently was higher velocity in pitches 40-60. Add to that what pitchers always say about feeling out their stuff. I'm not experienced enough to know how to condense stuff from that site into a neat graph to display what I like. I don't think you believe a starter is throwing harder or sharper first time around anyways so would be waste of time.


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