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Thread: Chapman

  1. #106
    Member kheidg-'s Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Chapman was always a starter his entire career before being converted to a reliever and last year, a closer. Some people posting seems to think this is foreign territory for him.

    We aren't paying 7 mil a year to Broxton to set up.

    This shouldn't even be a discussion at this point. Stick with moving Chapman to the rotation and if things don't look good in June/July, move him back to the bullpen for the remainder of the year and do it over again next year.

    Relievers are a heck of a lot easier to find than plus starters.

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  3. #107
    Miami Redhawks Redhook's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by kheidg- View Post
    Chapman was always a starter his entire career before being converted to a reliever and last year, a closer. Some people posting seems to think this is foreign territory for him.

    We aren't paying 7 mil a year to Broxton to set up.

    This shouldn't even be a discussion at this point. Stick with moving Chapman to the rotation and if things don't look good in June/July, move him back to the bullpen for the remainder of the year and do it over again next year.

    Relievers are a heck of a lot easier to find than plus starters.
    Exactly.

    I know Paul Daugherty rubs some people the wrong way, but he just wrote a great article on Chapman with all the reasons he should be a starter. Check it out.
    "....the two players I liked watching the most were Barry Larkin and Eric Davis. I was suitably entertained by their effortless skill that I didn't need them crashing into walls like a squirrel on a coke binge." - dsmith421

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  4. #108
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by kheidg- View Post
    Chapman was always a starter his entire career before being converted to a reliever and last year, a closer. Some people posting seems to think this is foreign territory for him.

    We aren't paying 7 mil a year to Broxton to set up.

    This shouldn't even be a discussion at this point. Stick with moving Chapman to the rotation and if things don't look good in June/July, move him back to the bullpen for the remainder of the year and do it over again next year.

    Relievers are a heck of a lot easier to find than plus starters.
    Starter in Cuba. The competitiion is not quite the same (and not nearly as close as many believe). Guys like Felix Perez and Rene Arocha provide examples of some of the better guys there.

    Carlos Fisher was a pretty successful starter against weaker competition. Its proves nothing about how he'll do as a major league starter IMO.

    That said, I agree with your plan to give him the opportunity to start.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #109
    Member wlf WV's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    I see this as less of a risk than the 30-some millions to sign him. Albeit ,it is a risk,especially for the 2013 Reds.

    But I would do it,if it was my call.
    May the Lord bless

  6. #110
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'm not a big Mike Leake guy, but I think the downside of him as the 5th starter is a lot less bad than a failed Chapman. I could really see Chapman proving to be a guy who just can't successfully make it through a line-up more than once with any regularity and frequently needing to be pulled before the 5th inning. A guy like that tires the pen and starts to impact the rest of the rotation as they are left in too long to compensate. By August, the entire staff could be feeling the effects.
    This just shouldn't be a risk if anyone is watching him. A pitcher who is a liability in the #5 spot is pretty easy to spot for anyone, let alone a top flight pitching coach like Price. The fact that he's on board with the project tells me there isn't nearly the downside you're speaking of. And if Chapman comes close to the worst case scenario, the pressure's gonna be immense to move him back to the pen. No way that lasts until August.

  7. #111
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Downside is he winds up back in the bullpen. As in, there isn't much of a downside.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  9. #112
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    I don't believe for a second that unless there was a nightmare scenario involving injuries and the like, that Chapman failing as a starter could sink the season. But if he succeeds he just could carry the Reds to the promised land.

  10. #113
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Then why all the gnashing of teeth here if his performance matters so little?
    Because if it works, it makes this team vastly better. If it doesn't, this team really isn't worse.

  11. #114
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    This just shouldn't be a risk if anyone is watching him. A pitcher who is a liability in the #5 spot is pretty easy to spot for anyone, let alone a top flight pitching coach like Price. The fact that he's on board with the project tells me there isn't nearly the downside you're speaking of. And if Chapman comes close to the worst case scenario, the pressure's gonna be immense to move him back to the pen. No way that lasts until August.
    But if they are going to get him a chance, they can't really pull the trigger that quickly. I'd say nothing's proven until he has 20 starts or so. I thought the position that every one is being so loud about is that he needs to be given a chance. If he has three or four starts where he struggles, putting him back in the pen so quickly isn't really giving him a chance. I think a real chance requires enough times through the rotation that a poor season will have an adverse impact on the entire staff.

    I agree that Price in favor of it is reassuring, but there are a lot of knowledgable people who don't think his stuff will translate to starting. The two things that make him successful as a reliever are throwing 100 MPH+ on a regular basis and a big breaking slider that guys chase out of the zone. I wonder if either of those things will work going through a line-up three times. The 100 MPH+ days are probably over in the rotation and the slider is going to have to be thrown for a strike or guys will learn to lay off of it through repitition (which isn't really happening for three outs per game 50 times each year).

    If the fastball is dialed back and the slider is thrown over the plate, will they become hittable as time wears on? I think its a real question. I'd guess he'll still have enough stuff on his fastball to get some hitters out, but how often and how the other stuff plays will be key IMO and I think its still an open question.
    Last edited by mth123; 03-14-2013 at 09:37 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  12. #115
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Because if it works, it makes this team vastly better. If it doesn't, this team really isn't worse.
    At what point does "it doesn't work" become a reality. If he's given the chance people are screaming for, "it doesn't work" can't be determined until enough of the season has gone by where it really will make the team worse if he's really bad.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  13. #116
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I mean because he could truly suck as the 5th starter.

    I'm not a big Mike Leake guy, but I think the downside of him as the 5th starter is a lot less bad than a failed Chapman. I could really see Chapman proving to be a guy who just can't successfully make it through a line-up more than once with any regularity and frequently needing to be pulled before the 5th inning. A guy like that tires the pen and starts to impact the rest of the rotation as they are left in too long to compensate. By August, the entire staff could be feeling the effects.

    OTOH, I could also see Chapman becoming a true Cy Young caliber number 1 and taking the team to another level which is why I'd make the move, but I'm not naive enough to believe that there is no risk. To me, the stance that there is no risk and the bashing of Dusty and others who are given pause by this risky decision just proves a lack of understanding. There is plenty of risk here and I'd be more concerned with a Manager who doesn't recognize it than I am with one who is showing concern about how this decision may impact his team.
    You do realize for him to fail so bad vs. what Leake did last year it would have to be one of the worst starting performances in MLB history, right? If he is a 5 ERA pitcher that would not be much different than Leake was last year. That is one extra run every 3 starts. For it to be a complete disaster to where it destroys the Reds whole season he would need to have an ERA around 8 or 9. Even then, let's say he starts 10 games where the Reds don't win a single one (which is very hard to do, and might require an ERA over 10). That would be about 5 games worse than Leake last year. The Reds still would have won the division by 4 games last year.

  14. #117
    Miami Redhawks Redhook's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    At what point does "it doesn't work" become a reality. If he's given the chance people are screaming for, "it doesn't work" can't be determined until enough of the season has gone by where it really will make the team worse if he's really bad.
    I understand what you're getting at, but like a few others have stated, I don't think the season hinges on Chapman. I'd also be shocked if he actually made the team worse. I mean, seriously, we're talking about one of the best arms in the history of baseball. Could he really make them worse as a starter?

    I look at Chapman as a luxury that could make the difference between a World Series Championship and just making the playoffs. I think the Reds would win the division without Chapman on the team this year. I believe they're that good. I'm all about risk vs. reward and this scenario screams that the reward is far greater than the risk. My only hope is Dusty keeps his piehole shut when the first save opportunity is blown.
    "....the two players I liked watching the most were Barry Larkin and Eric Davis. I was suitably entertained by their effortless skill that I didn't need them crashing into walls like a squirrel on a coke binge." - dsmith421

    www.kylevoska.com - Golfer? Check out my blog for golf tips.

  15. #118
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by scott91575 View Post
    You do realize for him to fail so bad vs. what Leake did last year it would have to be one of the worst starting performances in MLB history, right? If he is a 5 ERA pitcher that would not be much different than Leake was last year. That is one extra run every 3 starts. For it to be a complete disaster to where it destroys the Reds whole season he would need to have an ERA around 8 or 9. Even then, let's say he starts 10 games where the Reds don't win a single one (which is very hard to do, and might require an ERA over 10). That would be about 5 games worse than Leake last year. The Reds still would have won the division by 4 games last year.
    I think if he's this

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...&t=p&year=2011

    he could have the kind of impact I'm talking about. Its not just his own stats that matter. All those 5 inning and less outings bring the rest of the staff down as well. Baseball is still a team game. As those type of outings pile up, you'll see worse stats from the pen and the other starters as well.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  16. #119
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think if he's this

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...&t=p&year=2011

    he could have the kind of impact I'm talking about. Its not just his own stats that matter. All those 5 inning and less outings bring the rest of the staff down as well. Baseball is still a team game. As those type of outings pile up, you'll see worse stats from the pen and the other starters as well.
    It's not like Leake was going out there and throwing complete games all the time. He averaged just under 6 innings a game.

    If Chapman is awful he will get the hook after a couple of months. 3 at most. Even at Edinson Volquez levels that is a few wins and certainly not a season killer.

    I understand it's a team game, and that is why 1 player is not going to kill an entire season. Heck, the Reds lost Joey Votto for a large chunk of the season and even that did not kill the Reds season.

  17. #120
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman

    Quote Originally Posted by scott91575 View Post
    It's not like Leake was going out there and throwing complete games all the time. He averaged just under 6 innings a game.

    If Chapman is awful he will get the hook after a couple of months. 3 at most. Even at Edinson Volquez levels that is a few wins and certainly not a season killer.
    Then I repeat my position that the "chance" people are clamoring for isn't really a chance at all. Two months isn't enough to reach any conclusions.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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