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Thread: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

  1. #46
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Mariano Rivera in 2011 in 2 or 1 run games with the Yankees in the lead (when he entered): 30 saves, 5 blown saves for an 86% SV rate in those games.

    David Weathers in 2007 in 2 or 1 run games with the Reds in the lead (when he entered): 25 saves, 4 blown saves for an 86% SV rate in those games.

    Aroldis Champan in 2012 in 2 or 1 run games with the Reds in the lead (when he entered): 27 saves, 4 blown saves for an 87% SV rate in those games.
    Doug....You just nuked everyone in this thread with this post.

    Very well done.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

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  3. #47
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    BTW...I think many managers in baseball realize the 1 inning closer is not the best usage of their bullpen, but the financial aspects of the game require players to be used that way for morale reasons. The best pitcher in your bullpen will become unhappy if he is not racking up saves so he can get a better contract. So managers are forced to use players this way to keep them happy.

    The closer role is often more of a reward for being good, not an actual benefit to the team.

  4. #48
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wheels View Post
    Doug....You just nuked everyone in this thread with this post.

    Very well done.
    By cherry picking single seasons worth of stats that are the most convenient to his point?
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Closer = guy who can consistently get the job done year after year

    Big Time Closer = Mo, Trevor
    Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.

    All the dishes rattle in the cupboards when the elephants arrive

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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Except teams didn't even use "closers" before the 80's really. Yet the rates were exactly the same.
    I think it is and for many years has been vitally important that good pitchers pitch the late innings and finish games.

    Yes, it may be that "closers" as we know them today, in exactly current form, have existed a short time.

    But I think that begs the question.

    Teams in the old days didn't have many relievers, many of them weren't very good - but teams usually saved the best relievers for the late innings.

    Luis Arroyo of the Yankees is an example. I saw him pitch often in the early 1960s, he had a great year in 1961, and while not a 2013 style one-inning closer, he pitched the late innings in many key games and the Yankees won.

    In 1961 he finished 54 games and pitched 119 innings. Not a "closer" in today's parlance, but a guy who finished games successfully.

    The combo of Brosnan and Henry, similar. Not a closer in the exact sense of today, but finished lots of games successfully. I'm sure there are many other examples.

    The fallacy of the anti-closer argument is that it defines the issue too narrowly.
    I'd agree that having your "closer" used exactly like 2013 closers isn't that vital. Having one guy pitch every ninth inning isn't critical to me.

    But I would also argue that having a very good pitcher or two available for the late innings is crucial. Whether you do it 1960s style or 2013 style is way less important. But the idea that virtually any major league caliber pitcher can be thrown out there in the late innings, I'd dispute.

    In 1999 the Reds used Danny Graves and Scott Williamson as co-closers. It was very successful. Was that a 2013 style closer situation? I'd argue not. Still the Reds used two very good pitchers to finish off close games -- that's what I'd argue is necessary.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-13-2013 at 08:35 PM.

  7. #51
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    By cherry picking single seasons worth of stats that are the most convenient to his point?
    Again, I didn't cherry pick anything. A poster specifically called out Chapman and Weathers. I then went with the most recent season from the guy everyone believes is the best reliever ever, which was 2011. That is it.

  8. #52
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by TSJ55 View Post
    Closer = guy who can consistently get the job done year after year

    Big Time Closer = Mo, Trevor
    You avoided the question. Give me stats to look for to find players who fit your ideas. What save rate is "consistent"? How much ahead of that does a guy need to be to be a "big time closer"?

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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    Pretty decent article on the subject just posted.

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/sprin...ittee-work-mlb


    Here is a quote from the article. I agree with this:
    The quote you provided is excellent. It doesn't justify spending big time money on a closer, but it does add some justification for having defined roles in the bullpen. Over the course of a 162 game season, it has to be grueling mentally and physically. Knowing what is expected of you day in and day out can really help with the mental preparation portion. To me this is a big reason the closer-by-committee has not taken as much of a front seat as numbers imply it should. Numbers struggle to capture the mental portion of the game.

    Now that being said, I think pitching coaches could do a better job of utilizing pitchers in different situations. Not all the time but some of the time. For example:

    1 or 2 run lead you are home team and it is bottom of the 6th. STL has the bottom 3 in the lineup due up. Why not get Chapman up and running right away that way he can have his time and get warmed up to likely face 1-2-3 or 2-3-4 in the 8th inning, he will have plenty of time to get loose and get through his routine. Or if the guy in the 7th really struggles, he may be able to come get out of a jam late in the 7th, if he is ready in time, he may not be depending on how quickly it occurs. I agree this situation could and should happen more than it does.

    However, let Champan have a defined role of pitching the last 3 outs or so in save situations, but occasionally utilize him differently, with plenty of forewarning. Let the other guys maintain their usual roles, but occasionally use your big bullet differently.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 03-13-2013 at 08:42 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You avoided the question. Give me stats to look for to find players who fit your ideas. What save rate is "consistent"? How much ahead of that does a guy need to be to be a "big time closer"?
    Baseball is poetry not math in my world and poring over numbers ruins the game for me. I know enough baseball to know that few guys can be "the guy" you can depend on to come in and slam the door with little anxiety. Several can do it for a year. Less can do it 2 or 3 and even less can do it for 5+. I think my examples of "big time" stand by themselves.
    Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.

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  11. #55
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by TSJ55 View Post
    Baseball is poetry not math in my world and poring over numbers ruins the game for me. I know enough baseball to know that few guys can be "the guy" you can depend on to come in and slam the door with little anxiety. Several can do it for a year. Less can do it 2 or 3 and even less can do it for 5+. I think my examples of "big time" stand by themselves.
    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...wn-final-pitch

    From 1997 through 2011, the Yankees won 97.2 percent of the games they led heading into the ninth inning. The Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that featured infamous closers such as Rich Loiselle, Mike Williams, Jose Mesa, Matt Capps and Octavio Dotel during that span, won 94.7 percent of games they led going into the ninth. The San Diego Padres, where Hoffman pitched for many of those years, won 96.7 percent of their games.

    We are talking about 1 or 2 extra losses per season from "big time" to "Pittsburgh Pirates closers".
    Last edited by dougdirt; 03-13-2013 at 09:06 PM.

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    AtomicDumpling (03-14-2013)

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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...wn-final-pitch

    From 1997 through 2011, the Yankees won 97.2 percent of the games they led heading into the ninth inning. The Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that featured infamous closers such as Rich Loiselle, Mike Williams, Jose Mesa, Matt Capps and Octavio Dotel during that span, won 94.7 percent of games they led going into the ninth. The San Diego Padres, where Hoffman pitched for many of those years, won 96.7 percent of their games.
    If you're saying that you would take one of those guys before Mo over the course of career then good luck. I'll take Mo and not look back.
    Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.

    All the dishes rattle in the cupboards when the elephants arrive

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by TSJ55 View Post
    If you're saying that you would take one of those guys before Mo over the course of career then good luck. I'll take Mo and not look back.
    That isn't what I am saying. What I am saying is that he doesn't close games at some special rate compared to other closers. Good relievers can close. And they can do it nearly as well as the "elite" guys.

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    *BaseClogger* (03-14-2013)

  16. #58
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    That isn't what I am saying. What I am saying is that he doesn't close games at some special rate compared to other closers. Good relievers can close. And they can do it nearly as well as the "elite" guys.
    A conclusion you arrived at by cherry picking some random reliever's best flash in the pan season against the best closer ever's down season (which yes, those points of reference are absolutely cherry picked.)
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  17. #59
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    A conclusion you arrived at by cherry picking some random reliever's best flash in the pan season against the best closer ever's down season (which yes, those points of reference are absolutely cherry picked.)
    From 1997-2011 is cherry picking? Really?

  18. #60
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Are those stats any different when you trim the sample down to just include save situations entering the ninth? I doubt it will differ much but I don't know.


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