Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 14 1234511 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 201

Thread: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

  1. #1
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    34,852

    Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/201...r-you-get.html

    There is a lot in the article, but here is the real good stuff:

    Winning percentages when team leads by three runs going into the ninth inning:

    1960s: .974
    1970s: .977
    1980s: .975
    1990s: .963
    2000s: .976

    Winning percentages when team leads by two runs going into the ninth inning:

    1960s: .930
    1970s: .925
    1980s: .941
    1990s: .936
    2000s: .931

    WInning percentages when team leads by one run going into the ninth inning:

    1960s: .844
    1970s: .850
    1980s: .852
    1990s: .846
    2000s: .848

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Cincy
    Posts
    361

    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    I'm not sure this shows that closers don't matter. This just shows average winning percentage for teams with leads of 1-3 runs. Presumably, teams with good closers have winning percentages above the league average and teams with bad closers have winning percentages below league average; when the team leads by 1-3 runs in the 9th. That difference in winning percentage would add up to quite a few games over a 162 game season.

  4. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Springfield
    Posts
    88

    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Interesting.

    Although, I think it'd be more interesting to see winning %s for teams with "top tier" closers vs. teams without "top tier closers".

    Top tier could be defined using pay, or performance criteria... I think pay would make the most sense though. Anyone making above $X vs those making below $X.

    I think this would be more telling.

  5. Likes:

    REDREAD (03-13-2013)

  6. #4
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    34,852

    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Pony Boy View Post
    I'm not sure this shows that closers don't matter. This just shows average winning percentage for teams with leads of 1-3 runs. Presumably, teams with good closers have winning percentages above the league average and teams with bad closers have winning percentages below league average; when the team leads by 1-3 runs in the 9th. That difference in winning percentage would add up to quite a few games over a 162 game season.
    Except teams didn't even use "closers" before the 80's really. Yet the rates were exactly the same.

  7. #5
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    34,852

    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by JB12 View Post
    Interesting.

    Although, I think it'd be more interesting to see winning %s for teams with "top tier" closers vs. teams without "top tier closers".

    Top tier could be defined using pay, or performance criteria... I think pay would make the most sense though. Anyone making above $X vs those making below $X.

    I think this would be more telling.
    Why? Craig Kimbrel is making league minimum and he is the best in the game.

  8. #6
    Member klw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    New England
    Posts
    6,045

    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by JB12 View Post
    Interesting.

    Although, I think it'd be more interesting to see winning %s for teams with "top tier" closers vs. teams without "top tier closers".

    Top tier could be defined using pay, or performance criteria... I think pay would make the most sense though. Anyone making above $X vs those making below $X.

    I think this would be more telling.
    Easier would be to use the Rolaids relief top ten performers list for each season and check their teams' winning %/

  9. #7
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    The 513
    Posts
    12,621

    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Why? Craig Kimbrel is making league minimum and he is the best in the game.
    I used to be a big "closers don't matter" kinda guy, but I've come around (especially after watching Marshall last year) to the idea that pitching the 9th is an either "got it or don't" situation.

    I think there are some pitchers who let the mental aspect of pitching the 9th bother them for whatever reason. That's not to say there aren't tons of pitchers out there capable of closing games effectively, but I think it's a big oversimplification to say "Closers don't matter."
    Championships Matter.
    23 Years and Counting...

  10. #8
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    34,852

    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    I used to be a big "closers don't matter" kinda guy, but I've come around (especially after watching Marshall last year) to the idea that pitching the 9th is an either "got it or don't" situation.

    I think there are some pitchers who let the mental aspect of pitching the 9th bother them for whatever reason. That's not to say there aren't tons of pitchers out there capable of closing games effectively, but I think it's a big oversimplification to say "Closers don't matter."
    Sean Marshall was 8 out of 9 in save chances last year. He had 4 "blown saves" last year, but only one of them came as the actual closer. The other 3 were as the set up guy.

  11. #9
    Arbiter of Good Taste OGB's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    1,092

    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Except teams didn't even use "closers" before the 80's really. Yet the rates were exactly the same.
    This is what I took from it, but if you have one of those rare elite closers, I think they can still make a big difference. The only problem is that those guys are few and far between. For every Mariano Rivera, there are several Derek Turnbows, which is why I think you don't spend too much on a closer.
    That's why I'm firmly on the Chapman to the rotation bandwagon. He has a lot more value there even if he pitches at the level of a #2 starter.
    I may not be fast, but I sure am slow.

  12. #10
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    42,214

    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Except teams didn't even use "closers" before the 80's really. Yet the rates were exactly the same.
    They used them, they just pitched earlier and longer, what they didn't use was "Loogys" and set up men for each side of the plate

  13. #11
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    Lexington, KY
    Posts
    478

    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    I'd like to see 9th inning WHIP for the same time periods. Maybe that will give better insight toward the emergence and importance of a closer.
    There are only two seasons - Winter and Baseball.

  14. #12
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    St. Louis, Mo
    Posts
    3,499

    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Except teams didn't even use "closers" before the 80's really. Yet the rates were exactly the same.
    Wasn't overall pitching better before the 80's though? I don't know if it's fair to compare the winning percentage of teams from the 60's in one run leads when that was arguably the best decade of pitching in the history of baseball. It's unknown is if there weren't closers, the stats would be close to the same. I personally feel comfortable with a flame thrower with a known role pitching the 9th.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

    Mike Shannon

  15. Likes:

    757690 (03-13-2013)

  16. #13
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    10,108

    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    You know its getting close to baseball season when you hear "Closers don't matter" or "any reliever can close." It seems to get some traction until the 9th inning becomes a roller coaster ride.

  17. #14
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Posts
    2,218

    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Who posted this, Hal McCoy?

  18. #15
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Lebanon
    Posts
    7,067

    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    "Closers don't matter".

    Tell that to the fans of teams who've blown alot of 9th inning leads.

    David Weathers. Aroldis Chapman. David Weathers. Aroldis Chapman. David Weathers. Aroldis Chapman.

    Hmmmmm.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25