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Thread: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

  1. #181
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Coming from Behind: Patterns of Scoring and Relation to Winning
    By David W. Smith

    Presented July 16, 2004 at SABR34, Cincinnati, Ohio

    http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/S...ingPattern.pdf

    Conclusions
    Home teams score more in each of first 8 innings
    Visiting teams score more in each extra inning
    An early lead early is very valuable
    The advent of the closer has not changed late inning success
    Coming from behind and winning in last AB only moderately important
    The most successful teams get the lead and keep it
    Total scoring is by far the best predictor of overall success

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    Dom Heffner (03-17-2013), TRF (03-19-2013)

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  4. #182
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    I went to college, but I'm having a real hard time with what the heck you guys are arguing about.
    That's because when you went to college math hadn't been invented yet and history was still current events.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  5. #183
    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    I went to college, but I'm having a real hard time with what the heck you guys are arguing about.
    Because it's gobbedly gook.

    It's pointing out the obvious but misinterpreting its meaning.

    Sure, I'd rather have a ten run lead with three outs remainimg than with 27 outs remaining.

    To take that and then say that runs are more "valuable" when scored late is a useless observation.

    Because you can't "turn up" the intensity to try and score late.

    And if you could, doing it early would be just as valuable- in fact, just do it all the time and you'll score a million runs.

    This is very bad analysis with zero predictive value.

    Again- probablity, distribution. Stats not logic here.

    It's like saying in football that scoring points later has more value.

    Well, yeah- but you can't make a game plan for that. Late big leads are better than early big leads. That is obvious. We can't take that and do anything with the data. Oh- you mean I just keep the other guy from scoring and then pile on points/runs late? Gosh, why didn't you say so?

  6. #184
    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Coming from Behind: Patterns of Scoring and Relation to Winning
    By David W. Smith

    Presented July 16, 2004 at SABR34, Cincinnati, Ohio

    http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/S...ingPattern.pdf

    Conclusions
    Home teams score more in each of first 8 innings
    Visiting teams score more in each extra inning
    An early lead early is very valuable
    The advent of the closer has not changed late inning success
    Coming from behind and winning in last AB only moderately important
    The most successful teams get the lead and keep it
    Total scoring is by far the best predictor of overall success
    Scoring more than your opponent. Yes.

    Run differential.

    Being skilled at taking late leads=impossible.

  7. #185
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Sans for a few snarky posts, I just wanted to chime in and say that I think this is one of the more interesting threads in a long while in RZ. I'm just sorry that I'm preoccupied this time of year to be able to get my hands dirty and jump in the conversation. But in the meantime, wanted to applaud and thank folks for some interesting reading.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  8. #186
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Dom Heffner View Post
    Because it's gobbedly gook.

    It's pointing out the obvious but misinterpreting its meaning.

    Sure, I'd rather have a ten run lead with three outs remainimg than with 27 outs remaining.

    To take that and then say that runs are more "valuable" when scored late is a useless observation.

    Because you can't "turn up" the intensity to try and score late.

    And if you could, doing it early would be just as valuable- in fact, just do it all the time and you'll score a million runs.

    This is very bad analysis with zero predictive value.

    Again- probablity, distribution. Stats not logic here.

    It's like saying in football that scoring points later has more value.

    Well, yeah- but you can't make a game plan for that. Late big leads are better than early big leads. That is obvious. We can't take that and do anything with the data. Oh- you mean I just keep the other guy from scoring and then pile on points/runs late? Gosh, why didn't you say so?
    In Football, teams have two minute drills, and prevent defenses. In Basketball, teams have different strategies for the end of the game. I imagine the same is true for Hockey, but who really cares, lol?

    In baseball, teams have different strategies based on what inning it is, and the score of the game, both for offense and defense. For pretty much all of baseball history, managers have managed the late innings differently, especially on defense.

    They left their ace in longer, unless he was struggling. Then they would bring in a young fireballer, or guy with a trick pitch to get key outs. These relievers were very similar to today's relievers, they were failed starters who could thrive in shorter stints. Today, there are virtually no relievers who could be viable starters. They are all failed starters, who guys who never could start.

    This notion that teams are only now using closers is absurd and factually wrong. There have always been guys who were used to get key, tough outs. They just were used longer and less frequently.

    Teams have always understood that some outs are more valuable to get, in terms of deciding who wins the game, and have always managed the game to take this into account. The only significant difference between now and then is that there are now stats to document this.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  9. #187
    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Friend- a run is a run.

    You are arguing circumstances from hindsight.

    Your point should be that grabbing a big late lead is valuable.

    Well, okay, but what would you like me to do with this?

    Don't score early and wait so I score late?

  10. #188
    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    In baseball, teams have different strategies based on what inning it is, and the score of the game, both for offense and defense. For pretty much all of baseball history, managers have managed the late innings differently, especially on defense.
    Well, yes, you manage differently because 70% of the game has been played.

    An unknown circumstance is now known. This shift in circumstances does not increase the value of a run scored late because if the run was scored early, these circumstances now known have shifted and aren't the same.

    Is moving ahead of your opponent important late in the game important? Sure.

    Is that run more valuable than others? No. It was timely, yes. Not more valuable per se.

  11. #189
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Dom Heffner View Post
    Well, yes, you manage differently because 70% of the game has been played.

    An unknown circumstance is now known. This shift in circumstances does not increase the value of a run scored late because if the run was scored early, these circumstances now known have shifted and aren't the same.

    Is moving ahead of your opponent important late in the game important? Sure.

    Is that run more valuable than others? No. It was timely, yes. Not more valuable per se.
    I think the bolded word is perfect. A run's value is "1" but I still don't think they are all the same. Some runs decrease the other teams morale while some don't. Some runs increase a pitcher's pucker factor more than others. Some runs send messages and some don't.
    Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.

    All the dishes rattle in the cupboards when the elephants arrive

  12. #190
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Dom Heffner View Post
    Friend- a run is a run.

    You are arguing circumstances from hindsight.

    Your point should be that grabbing a big late lead is valuable.

    Well, okay, but what would you like me to do with this?

    Don't score early and wait so I score late?
    I don't think we disagree that much, just you are misinterpreting my point, which is understood, since I doubt I explained it well, lol.

    I'm not arguing that teams shouldn't score early. Just that teams need to change their strategy as the game goes on, both on offense and defense. Teams have done that for pretty much the entire history of the game. That's pretty much my only point.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  13. #191
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Regarding the OP...

    Ceteris paribus, wouldn't you expect the late-inning winning percentage to be lower in the 90s and 00s then in earlier decades, given the steroid-fueled offense? And given that, if we find that the winning percentages are the same across decades, it should indicate that the closers were making a difference in those decades.

  14. #192
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    So here is the way to frame this question I believe.

    If I were to tell you that on Opening Day (or any given game) I will give the Reds a solo home run in the first or ninth inning. Everything else is an unknown. When would you choose to take it? Or do you truly not care (which is acceptable).

  15. #193
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    So here is the way to frame this question I believe.

    If I were to tell you that on Opening Day (or any given game) I will give the Reds a solo home run in the first or ninth inning. Everything else is an unknown. When would you choose to take it? Or do you truly not care (which is acceptable).
    First. I prefer the Reds to not bat in the 9th inning at home.

  16. #194
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    So here is the way to frame this question I believe.

    If I were to tell you that on Opening Day (or any given game) I will give the Reds a solo home run in the first or ninth inning. Everything else is an unknown. When would you choose to take it? Or do you truly not care (which is acceptable).
    Need more information.

    If the Reds are the home team, than my answer may differ than if they are the away team.

    If it is the ninth inning, and the Reds are at home, it implies they are tied or losing the game. If I am guarnteed one run, and I know I'm behind or tied, than ii will take that 9th inning run.

    If the Reds are the visiting team, I will take that guarenteed run in the first as the team is guarenteed on taking the lead.

    The importance of a run can't be measured until after a game is over.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  17. #195
    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    This is a moot point.


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