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Thread: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

  1. #16
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    Wasn't overall pitching better before the 80's though? I don't know if it's fair to compare the winning percentage of teams from the 60's in one run leads when that was arguably the best decade of pitching in the history of baseball. It's unknown is if there weren't closers, the stats would be close to the same. I personally feel comfortable with a flame thrower with a known role pitching the 9th.
    Not necessarily, the environment for pitching was at a peak from 1962 to 1993 or so, especially 62-68, then the 70's had multi purpose stadiums, with plastic grass, 15 foot walls and symmetric outfields

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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    "Closers don't matter".

    Tell that to the fans of teams who've blown alot of 9th inning leads.

    David Weathers. Aroldis Chapman. David Weathers. Aroldis Chapman. David Weathers. Aroldis Chapman.

    Hmmmmm.
    Agree. All 27 outs are not created equal. Some pitchers THRIVE on pitching the 9th. It scares others to death.

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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Except teams didn't even use "closers" before the 80's really. Yet the rates were exactly the same.
    I'm not sure that proves the closers don't matter point necessarily. Looking at league wide averages in different eras won't show you the difference between teams with a good closer and teams without once it became a more dominant role.

    What "could" prove it more conclusively is to measure the win % after 8 innings for a team that used the closer and the league average. Maybe the win % of the 89-92 A's who used Eckersley in the manner of the current closer before it was widespread league wide.


    I think it's an important point too that while pretty much the league averages .97%, if a good closer means you're at 98% and a poor closer means you're at 96%, then isn't a good closer worth roughly 3 wins?
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    I'm not sure that proves the closers don't matter point necessarily. Looking at league wide averages in different eras won't show you the difference between teams with a good closer and teams without once it became a more dominant role.

    What "could" prove it more conclusively is to measure the win % after 8 innings for a team that used the closer and the league average. Maybe the win % of the 89-92 A's who used Eckersley in the manner of the current closer before it was widespread league wide.


    I think it's an important point too that while pretty much the league averages .97%, if a good closer means you're at 98% and a poor closer means you're at 96%, then isn't a good closer worth roughly 3 wins?
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Not necessarily, the environment for pitching was at a peak from 1962 to 1993 or so, especially 62-68, then the 70's had multi purpose stadiums, with plastic grass, 15 foot walls and symmetric outfields
    Yes but I think Mike's point still stands. Considering the infrequency of scoring, you'd think small leads would stand up better in the 60's than the Aughts. The development of the closer then might be a Red Queen proposition in an offensive environment.
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    "Closers don't matter".

    Tell that to the fans of teams who've blown alot of 9th inning leads.

    David Weathers. Aroldis Chapman. David Weathers. Aroldis Chapman. David Weathers. Aroldis Chapman.

    Hmmmmm.
    David Weathers saved 85% in 2007. Cordero averaged 86% as a Red. Chapman closed at 88% last year, 83% in short Red's career. While Chapman is certainly more impressive in his saves, the end result isn't much different across the league through the years regardless of "closer" role and the evolution of bullpens. By all means I am not trying to compare Weathers to Chapman. I am just one of the fans in the "Chapman for starter" camp and was just trying to echo Joe's point on the glorification of the "closer" title.
    "Are you trying to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?!"

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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    "Closers don't matter".

    Tell that to the fans of teams who've blown alot of 9th inning leads.

    David Weathers. Aroldis Chapman. David Weathers. Aroldis Chapman. David Weathers. Aroldis Chapman.

    Hmmmmm.
    Just almost threw up thinking about Ryan Franklin.
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    Yes but I think Mike's point still stands. Considering the infrequency of scoring, you'd think small leads would stand up better in the 60's than the Aughts. The development of the closer then might be a Red Queen proposition in an offensive environment.
    I have a feeling that the win percentage would have been drastically different if there were no such thing as closers in the steroid era. The trend now might be going back to that pre-steroid era now that offense is starting to normalize. However, I don't know if looking purely at win percentage does the debate justice. There are too many other factors involved.
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    I think it's an important point too that while pretty much the league averages .97%, if a good closer means you're at 98% and a poor closer means you're at 96%, then isn't a good closer worth roughly 3 wins?
    No, it doesn't mean that at all.

    Assume a closer gets 50 save chances in a season. 2% is 1 blown save. And you may not even lose that game.

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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    "Closers don't matter".

    Tell that to the fans of teams who've blown alot of 9th inning leads.

    David Weathers. Aroldis Chapman. David Weathers. Aroldis Chapman. David Weathers. Aroldis Chapman.

    Hmmmmm.
    Mariano Rivera in 2011 in 2 or 1 run games with the Yankees in the lead (when he entered): 30 saves, 5 blown saves for an 86% SV rate in those games.

    David Weathers in 2007 in 2 or 1 run games with the Reds in the lead (when he entered): 25 saves, 4 blown saves for an 86% SV rate in those games.

    Aroldis Champan in 2012 in 2 or 1 run games with the Reds in the lead (when he entered): 27 saves, 4 blown saves for an 87% SV rate in those games.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 03-13-2013 at 06:08 PM.

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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Mariano Rivera in 2011 in 2 or 1 run games with the Yankees in the lead (when he entered): 30 saves, 5 blown saves for an 86% SV rate in those games.

    David Weathers in 2007 in 2 or 1 run games with the Reds in the lead (when he entered): 25 saves, 4 blown saves for an 86% SV rate in those games.

    Aroldis Champan in 2012 in 2 or 1 run games with the Reds in the lead (when he entered): 27 saves, 4 blown saves for an 87% SV rate in those games.
    If you were the NYY GM in 2007 and were looking to cut some payroll and Krivsky called you to offer Weathers for Mariano, would you have done it?

  17. #27
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Mariano Rivera in 2011 in 2 or 1 run games with the Yankees in the lead (when he entered): 30 saves, 5 blown saves for an 86% SV rate in those games.

    David Weathers in 2007 in 2 or 1 run games with the Reds in the lead (when he entered): 25 saves, 4 blown saves for an 86% SV rate in those games.

    Aroldis Champan in 2012 in 2 or 1 run games with the Reds in the lead (when he entered): 27 saves, 4 blown saves for an 87% SV rate in those games.
    So in your conclusion, do you think the Yankees would have had the same amount of success without Rivera? Are you concluding that in 16 years worth of playoff appearances, another reliever would give up less earned runs than there have been men who walked on the moon?
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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    So in your conclusion, do you think the Yankees would have had the same amount of success without Rivera? Are you concluding that in 16 years worth of playoff appearances, another reliever would give up less earned runs than there have been men who walked on the moon?
    No, but I do think that they would have been rather close assuming they had another good, but perhaps not "GOAT" reliever.

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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    If you were the NYY GM in 2007 and were looking to cut some payroll and Krivsky called you to offer Weathers for Mariano, would you have done it?
    Of course not, because Rivera is better. But, he wasn't better at saving close games. He was just simply better as a reliever overall.

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    Re: Joe Posnanski with more data showing that closers simply don't matter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Mariano Rivera in 2011 in 2 or 1 run games with the Yankees in the lead (when he entered): 30 saves, 5 blown saves for an 86% SV rate in those games.

    David Weathers in 2007 in 2 or 1 run games with the Reds in the lead (when he entered): 25 saves, 4 blown saves for an 86% SV rate in those games.

    Aroldis Champan in 2012 in 2 or 1 run games with the Reds in the lead (when he entered): 27 saves, 4 blown saves for an 87% SV rate in those games.
    I don't think it's fair to cherry pick individual seasons to support that argument. Using 31.67 games (average of the three) is an incredibly small sample size. Looking at those numbers, one could assume that Weathers was equal to Rivera, and we all know that is not the case.
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