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View Poll Results: Who is the Reds' #34 prospect for 2013?

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  • Beau Amaral

    0 0%
  • Theo Bowe

    0 0%
  • Sean Buckley

    2 7.41%
  • Nick Christiani

    0 0%
  • Carlos Contreras

    0 0%
  • Brandon Dailey

    0 0%
  • Juan Duran

    2 7.41%
  • Josh Fellhauer

    6 22.22%
  • Mason Felt

    0 0%
  • Brodie Greene

    0 0%
  • Drew Hayes

    7 25.93%
  • Jeremy Kivel

    1 3.70%
  • Devin Lohman

    0 0%
  • Chris Manno

    1 3.70%
  • Travis Mattair

    0 0%
  • Curtis Partch

    0 0%
  • Daniel Paula

    0 0%
  • Juan Perez

    0 0%
  • Daniel Piggott

    0 0%
  • Radhames Quezada

    0 0%
  • Josh Ravin

    1 3.70%
  • Carlos Sanchez

    0 0%
  • Steve Selsky

    2 7.41%
  • Josh Smith

    0 0%
  • Pedro Villarreal

    0 0%
  • Zach Vincej

    2 7.41%
  • Other (Please Name)

    3 11.11%
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Thread: Who is Redszone's #34 prospect for 2013?

  1. #31
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #34 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Which study are you referring to?
    Let's start with the work done by John Sickels.

    Sickels continually talks about percent over league average as a barometer for a successful or at least interesting prospect. Well, Selsky was more than 25% better than league average in OPS, BA, OBP, and SLG. His HR rate and SB rate are also well above league average.

    He did the same thing in the Arizona League last season (though, admittedly, in only 20 games).

    In other words, he has shown many of the earmarks of success we should be looking for in two of the three leagues he's played in since becoming a professional. (SSS, of course, applies in any of these discussions.)

    Very few Red prospects have done that-- and all of those that have done it are 20 spots or more ahead of Selsky in this particular prospect list.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  3. #32
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #34 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Let's start with the work done by John Sickels.

    Sickels continually talks about percent over league average as a barometer for a successful or at least interesting prospect. Well, Selsky was more than 25% better than league average in OPS, BA, OBP, and SLG. His HR rate and SB rate are also well above league average.

    He did the same thing in the Arizona League last season (though, admittedly, in only 20 games).

    In other words, he has shown many of the earmarks of success we should be looking for in two of the three leagues he's played in since becoming a professional. (SSS, of course, applies in any of these discussions.)

    Very few Red prospects have done that-- and all of those that have done it are 20 spots or more ahead of Selsky in this particular prospect list.
    That isn't really a study.

  4. #33
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #34 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    That isn't really a study.
    Y'know, doug, you're right.

    It's not technically a study.

    However, I said "recent sabremetric study," which obviously means, in this instance, examination.

    Like, say, all of John Sickels' work. Which I then discussed.

    Geez, there are times when you are really, really difficult to deal with.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
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  5. #34
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #34 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Y'know, doug, you're right.

    It's not technically a study.

    However, I said "recent sabremetric study," which obviously means, in this instance, examination.

    Like, say, all of John Sickels' work. Which I then discussed.

    Geez, there are times when you are really, really difficult to deal with.
    It isn't any kind of study. I don't think that I am being difficult. I was curious as to a study I hadn't seen and asked about it.

  6. #35
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #34 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    It isn't any kind of study. I don't think that I am being difficult. I was curious as to a study I hadn't seen and asked about it.
    Of course there's been study. Sickels, Moneyball, BaseballProspectus, and literally hundreds of more have examined the issue and most agree that success within the league is just as vital-- if not more so-- than is scouting.

    I feel like you're purposefully being pedantic about this.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
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  7. #36
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #34 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Of course there's been study. Sickels, Moneyball, BaseballProspectus, and literally hundreds of more have examined the issue and most agree that success within the league is just as vital-- if not more so-- than is scouting.

    I feel like you're purposefully being pedantic about this.
    Of course success matters. Generally speaking, guys that turn into players were always good before then. But there are also a lot of guys who were good in the minors but not in the Majors. Hence why I was interested in the study. I wanted to see what it was saying about what minor league performance (in terms of stats) translated forward with.

    There is obviously something there, but the best projection systems in the world are still incredibly inconsistent in projecting what players are going to do when they come to the Majors. There is a reason for that. They are based purely on the numbers and age of a player. A lot more goes into how a guy will perform than his age and past performance, especially when it comes to young players who can have drastic changes in skillsets in short periods of time, or can take advantage of their strengths while hiding their weaknesses against unrounded minor leaguers.

  8. #37
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #34 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Of course success matters. Generally speaking, guys that turn into players were always good before then. But there are also a lot of guys who were good in the minors but not in the Majors. Hence why I was interested in the study. I wanted to see what it was saying about what minor league performance (in terms of stats) translated forward with.
    According to (again) Sickels, the better a prospect performs against the league average and the lower his age relative to league, the more he should be considered a prospect.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  9. #38
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #34 prospect for 2013?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    According to (again) Sickels, the better a prospect performs against the league average and the lower his age relative to league, the more he should be considered a prospect.
    Without seeing the data though, he is simply stating an opinion. I don't disagree with him at all in his opinion, particularly with position players. But it isn't a study, which is what I was hoping to look at.

  10. #39
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #34 prospect for 2013?

    Again, I think you're being purposefully obtuse here.

    It's not a study-- I never claimed there was a study. There has been study within sabremetric circles. Surely, you can see the difference.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher


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