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Thread: Can our rotation repeat?

  1. #1
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    Can our rotation repeat?

    I was looking at our starting rotation stats and realized how great they were. It was spectacularly consistent from 1-5.

    Cumulative stats from 2012 season.
    98 Quality Starts
    161 Games Started
    1015 Innings Pitched
    1.22 WHIP
    16.3 WAR
    768 Strikeouts
    3.65 ERA
    6.77 K/9

    I'm just blown away by these numbers and wondering how they could improve? Which makes the Chapman addition so fascinating.

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  3. #2
    Salukifan2
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    Re: Can our rotation repeat?

    Because the rotation is so young I think they can remain very durable for a few years. Maybe not 160 starts a year durable, but still very durable.

  4. #3
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    Re: Can our rotation repeat?

    One thing's for sure; they'll need to get even better to just repeat. While we certainly had a great staff last year, we had a historical anomaly in terms of health. It'll take further development and our depth stepping it up to repeat.

  5. #4
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Can our rotation repeat?

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    I was looking at our starting rotation stats and realized how great they were. It was spectacularly consistent from 1-5.

    Cumulative stats from 2012 season.
    98 Quality Starts
    161 Games Started
    1015 Innings Pitched
    1.22 WHIP
    16.3 WAR
    768 Strikeouts
    3.65 ERA
    6.77 K/9

    I'm just blown away by these numbers and wondering how they could improve? Which makes the Chapman addition so fascinating.
    The rotation should be a strength, but I don't think they can repeat 2012 if for no other reason than they had a rotation where I don't believe a single starter actually missed a start all year. Someone is likely to be injured this year and it will likely hurt the numbers. Luck can be a lady but she can also be something less than.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #5
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Can our rotation repeat?

    I'm not sure the Reds will be lucky enough to only have to use five starters again this season, but from a performance standpoint, I think the talent is there to get even better. I expect Cueto to continue being the ace he's been the last two season. I think Latos is going improve upon his 3.48 ERA last season. The talent is there for him to be a sub 3.00 ERA guy. Bailey looked like he took a huge step forward toward the end of last season. An ERA around 3.25 to 3.50 out of him wouldn't surprise me. Bronson's ERA may drop off some, but I still think he can be counted on for 200 innings of league average. Chapman is the wildcard, if he pitches like I think he's going to, the fifth spot in the rotation will be a huge upgrade over last season.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  7. Likes:

    AtomicDumpling (03-15-2013), jmac (03-16-2013), RedFanAlways1966 (03-15-2013)

  8. #6
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Can our rotation repeat?

    Doubtful for the simple reason that they aren't likely to see the same 5 guys, meaning a lesser guy is going to pitch plenty of innings.

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    jojo (03-15-2013), thatcoolguy_22 (03-19-2013)

  10. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Can our rotation repeat?

    And a slightly more sabermetric set:
    Code:
    	  Reds	NL Rank
    GS	   162	     --
    IP      1018.2	    2nd
    K%	 18.2%	   12th
    BB%	  5.8%	    2nd
    HR/9	  1.05	  T-8th	 
    ERA	  3.64	    4th
    ERA-	    90      2nd
    FIP	  3.92	    8th
    FIP-        98	  T-6th
    WAR	  14.7	  T-5th
    I actually do think we can repeat most of these. ERA will probably the toughest given that it's pretty strongly buoyed by the defense. But if we get 20 starts from Chapman, who knows.

    The health was definitely awesome last year, but we do have some decent SP depth.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #8
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Can our rotation repeat?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Doubtful for the simple reason that they aren't likely to see the same 5 guys, meaning a lesser guy is going to pitch plenty of innings.
    Dead on. Because of this, lets say one of the starters gets injured this spring. Do you make an one year offer to Lohse?
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  12. #9
    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: Can our rotation repeat?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Doubtful for the simple reason that they aren't likely to see the same 5 guys, meaning a lesser guy is going to pitch plenty of innings.
    But a lot of innings might be replaced with Chapman? Lets not forget that "possibility" (I am still not 100% convinced it will happen).

    I too will not bet money that injuries will be avoided. But the "Chapman factor" should count too. Will he be better than the person he replaces? Hopefully, but it remains to be seen.
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

  13. #10
    Vottobot
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    Re: Can our rotation repeat?

    I don't think we'll see anything like last year for a long time, those numbers are simply unreal. I think our rotation will be very solid but its impossible to live up to that
    Go Redlegs!!


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