Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

[RadfordVA]

And the types of hits. To suggest he's a batting tee might not be all that inaccurate, at least last year. 26 HR's, 46 doubles, 5 triples. Tell me you don't want those numbers from Jay Bruce.

http://thebaseballcube.com has a wealth of pitch information.

Hopefully Bruce would do a little better if he had the 757 Plate Appearances it took to get those totals though. Probably would be exhausted by playoffs too

[TRF]

Hopefully Bruce would do a little better if he had the 757 Plate Appearances it took to get those totals though. Probably would be exhausted by playoffs too

well, yeah..

Still the point is Leake allows a lot of hits. Guys know he is going to be in the zone a lot, his FB isn't overpowering, and his off speed stuff doesn't make his FB seem faster. Simply put, the patience hitters show isn't to draw a walk, it's to get the pitch they can drive. And Leake provides that pitch alot.

[UCBrownsfan]

ding ding.

He doesn't walk a ton of guys, but he allows a lot of baserunners via the hit. His sample size is three years, with no minor league seasons, so I'll grant the sample is smaller than Cueto at the same point in MLB. But he's had only 1 season where his H/9 was below 10, and only 1 season where his K/9 was above 6.

He has this reputation as a ground ball pitcher, but his GB/FB ratio is 1.00.

His MLB WHIP for his career is 1.33, a little high, but not too high for a 5th starter, certainly higher than one would expect from a 1st round pick. and that WHIP is seriously hit driven. Walks may haunt, but hits kill.

And the types of hits. To suggest he's a batting tee might not be all that inaccurate, at least last year. 26 HR's, 46 doubles, 5 triples. Tell me you don't want those numbers from Jay Bruce.

http://thebaseballcube.com has a wealth of pitch information.

While he did pitch some less innings, Leake 26 HR's, Bailey 26 HR's, Arroyo 26 HR's, and Latos 25 HR's.

[Caveat Emperor]

While he did pitch some less innings, Leake 26 HR's, Bailey 26 HR's, Arroyo 26 HR's, and Latos 25 HR's.

Let's not minimize it with "some" -- he threw almost 4 full games worth of innings fewer than Cueto (if we reduce it to average starts of ~6 IP he threw 6+ fewer games), and over 3 full games less than Bailey and Latos.

[TRF]

Latos, 39 doubles 3 triples 25 HR's 22 more IP.

that's significant.

Add three more starts to Leake and you are looking at 28 HR's 50 doubles.

That's quite a difference.

Arroyo 41 doubles 0 triples 26 HR's 23 more IP

Bailey 29 doubles 9 triples 26 HR's 29 more IP

Not. Even. Close.

[Steve4192]

His MLB WHIP for his career is 1.33, a little high, but not too high for a 5th starter, certainly higher than one would expect from a 1st round pick.

Wat?

I don't think you understand what the realistic expectations are for a 1st round draft pick. In any given year, about 1/3 of the guys drafted in the first round never make it to the majors. Another 1/3 manage to make it but put up a negative WAR and wash out of the league in short order. Just by being in the majors and consistently posting a positive WAR, Leake is already well above expectations for a 1st rounder.

If you look at the guys who are most similar to Leake through age 24 (according to baseball reference), you have Brad Penny, Reggie Cleveland, Ben McDonald and Don Aase. Those four guys all had long and successful careers in the major leagues. They weren't superstars, but they were solid players and stuck around for 10-12 years apiece. Any team would be thrilled to consistently get that kind of player out of their #1 draft pick.

[Scrap Irony]

Among the 80 starters that logged the most innings in the National League last season, Leake ranked 55th in WAR, 38th in IP, 67th in K/IP, 8th in HR/IP, 66th in ERA, 64th in FIP, and 35th in x-FIP.

[TRF]

Wat?

I don't think you understand what the realistic expectations are for a 1st round draft pick. In any given year, about 1/3 of the guys drafted in the first round never make it to the majors. Another 1/3 manage to make it but put up a negative WAR and wash out of the league in short order. Just by being in the majors and consistently posting a positive WAR, Leake is already well above expectations for a 1st rounder.

If you look at the guys who are most similar to Leake through age 24 (according to baseball reference), you have Brad Penny, Reggie Cleveland, Ben McDonald and Don Aase. Those four guys all had long and successful careers in the major leagues. They weren't superstars, but they were solid players and stuck around for 10-12 years apiece. Any team would be thrilled to consistently get that kind of player out of their #1 draft pick.

you means 1st round guys so highly thought of they skip the minor leagues entirely? I think the bar is higher for those guys.

[M2]

you means 1st round guys so highly thought of they skip the minor leagues entirely? I think the bar is higher for those guys.

I don't think "the bar" exists. It's a simple matter of whether a guy can pitch effectively or not. Had Leake spent two years in the minors blowing hitters away (and bet your ranches and dogs that he would have), then we'd be talking about how Leake needs to bring that minor league form into the majors this season.

Instead he went straight to the majors, which takes a ridiculous amount of talent. I'm trying to think of one other pitcher in the past decade who's done it. Can't come up with anyone. Lincecum probably could have, but didn't.

So Leake plugged away with less than what his final arsenal is going to be. He's right at the point where he should start showing real improvement. Apparently scouts are seeing it. We'll see if it materializes on the field and we should be happy if it does.

[757690]

you means 1st round guys so highly thought of they skip the minor leagues entirely? I think the bar is higher for those guys.

[TRF]

Is he going to grow three inches? gain 4-5 mph on his fastball?

no.

He's Arroyo without the height or guile. Bronson doesn't have 3 pitches, he has like 19. he'll change angles and armslot on a batter at any given time. Leake cannot do that.

And he sure as heck isn't going to blow a 95 mph fastball by anyone.

Mike Leake is a 5th starter that is actually a 5th starter. Chapman could have been an ACE pitching in the 5th starters spot this year.

Aroldis Chapman > Mike Leake in every aspect of the game on the mound. Leake is a decent hitter.

[RollyInRaleigh]

But he certainly can become a better "pitcher." It's not like it never happens for guys as they mature into their career.

[texasdave]

Can a pitcher improve more in the minors? I would think in the minors you have the luxury of working on your weaknesses more because wins and losses are not as relevant. If you are in the bigs, especially on a contending team, the emphasis has to be more towards getting a win every time out. So maybe in that context, development becomes a secondary goal. Or maybe I have no idea what I am talking about.

[M2]

Is he going to grow three inches? gain 4-5 mph on his fastball?

Doesn't need to. Plenty of sub-6'0" RH starters these days. And all reports are he's picking up a few ticks on the heater, which if you combine it with improving location in the zone is going to make him pretty good at that pitching thing.

[jimbo]

He's Arroyo without the height or guile. Bronson doesn't have 3 pitches, he has like 19. he'll change angles and armslot on a batter at any given time. Leake cannot do that

I doubt Arroyo could at age 25 either. He has stated before that his pitching has evolved through his career. To go right from college to the big leagues skipping the minors is a big accomplishment, and his numbers have been respectable considering. He has plenty of time to refine and improve.