Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

[OGB]

But you're over it and never bring it up, right? That's all.

At times I wish there was a dislike button because this accusation is getting old. My brain is starting to hurt after reading seven pages of this argument.

[757690]

I don't and history suggests they can't. That Leake gives up more is an anomaly but it is also a consistent one that seems to be a manifestation of his stuff".

Lol. I guess I convinced you that pitchers don't have complete control over any part of their game

Regardless, the one stat that tells us that Leake has room to improve is 25, his age. Most pitchers aren't who they are until after age 25, many not until 27 or older.

[jojo]

Lol. I guess I convinced you that pitchers don't have complete control over any part of their game

Regardless, the one stat that tells us that Leake has room to improve is 25, his age. Most pitchers aren't who they are until after age 25, many not until 27 or older.

HR/FB, BABIP, LOB%....those things really aren't something they control-they almost always regress, especially when they spike to a level that is significantly better than average.

Krate, BBrate, batted ball tendencies....those are very repeatable.

Most pitchers aren't who they are @ 25 because they are still working on command and pitchability etc. Those hurdles are largely crossed by Leake. That's a big reason he was a first round selection. That's why I worry he doesn't have room for a trampoline in his living room.

[TRF]

See, for me, I need a better reason than "he's 25".

Because, see, Chapman just turned 25...

[Vottomatic]

Yikes. One of these threads, huh.

[Caveat Emperor]

Yikes. One of these threads, huh.

Leake was a bit of a lightning-rod the day he was drafted. If you're a pitcher, usually you have to have one of three attributes: tall, hard-throwing, or left-handed. Leake is none of those, so he's been a guy that divides opinions since day-1.

Plus, it's less than a week to opening day. Us natives are restless for something to talk about.

[cincrazy]

Leake fields his position well, is a very good hitter and athlete, is versatile, and isn't a BAD pitcher, regardless of how different people feel about his upside. He's a very useful player to have on a ballclub. Leake would've been our #1 starter not too long ago.

[dougdirt]

How are you so sure? How does these "pitch movement" numbers get determined and who or what determine them? How can we be so sure that they make every variable in baseball so cut and dry. How can this one stat, that says Leake's "sink" has dramatically worsened, be so accurate that we can discount what scouts and our own eyes see?

I've always been leery of these these types of stats but am willing to learn them and form my own opinion of them.

Well first off, I don't think for a second that your eyes are picking up on an increase in 2 inches of rise on a baseball on television, especially over three years. None of us can do that.

As for how I am so sure.... I mean I guess I can't be. I have to trust Major League Baseball and every individual team that uses this data to evaluate guys every day.

What is happening is that the baseball is tracked by multiple cameras in the stadium. The information is then spit into a computer.

Pitch FX Tracks things such as start speed, end speed (when it reaches the strikezone), Horizontal movement, vertical movement, break, breaking angle, break length, spin direction, spin rate and a handful of other things that effect how the baseball will move.

Once we have all of those numbers, we can use math and science to determine if what it says happened should have happened.... and well, it does work out that way. It is exactly the reason we can get Pitch flight graphs like these:




Or get incredible scouting reports on pitchers like this one on Johnny Cueto: http://brooksbaseball.net/player_car...?player=456501

[Brutus]

Leake is considered the Reds' "worst" starter with his career 4.23 ERA and 4.58 last season. Fine.

Now here are the ERAs of the "worst" starters for each NL team the last three seasons:

3.69
3.97
4.03
4.22
4.26
4.33
4.45
4.47
4.48
4.49
4.54
4.59
4.63
4.66
4.73
4.74
4.79
4.84
4.85
4.89
4.93
4.99
5.01
5.02
5.08
5.11
5.15
5.16
5.18
5.27
5.36
5.40
5.47
5.49
5.55
5.68
5.69
6.13
6.31
6.35
6.40
6.55
6.60
7.05
7.57

Leake's ERA last year, despite a HR/FB ratio that will absolutely NOT remain as high as it was, was still better than 34 of 45 other teams in the past three years.

Leake is absolutely not a problem, especially if one views him as a 25-year old, still learning, with less than 500 professional innings and a career 4.23 ERA.

[Superdude]

See, for me, I need a better reason than "he's 25".

Because, see, Chapman just turned 25...

The age thing doesn't do it for me either because I don't think Leake fits in the average career arc people are talking about. This isn't a Cueto situation where a young, raw pitcher came up at 22 with plus stuff and struggled for a year or two. Leake has everything but physical gifts at this point, and I somehow doubt he's gonna grow three inches and start throwing 93 anytime soon.

(Edit: Not saying Leake is garbage or anything. Just don't see the development going much further)

[dougdirt]

Plus, pitchers don't exactly follow a nice career arc like hitters do. Some guys peak at 22-24. Some guys peak at 26-28. Some guys peak in their 30's. Pitchers are all over the place.

[RollyInRaleigh]

Doug, does this take into consideration the consistency of the pitcher's arm slot and release point?

Well first off, I don't think for a second that your eyes are picking up on an increase in 2 inches of rise on a baseball on television, especially over three years. None of us can do that.

As for how I am so sure.... I mean I guess I can't be. I have to trust Major League Baseball and every individual team that uses this data to evaluate guys every day.

What is happening is that the baseball is tracked by multiple cameras in the stadium. The information is then spit into a computer.

Pitch FX Tracks things such as start speed, end speed (when it reaches the strikezone), Horizontal movement, vertical movement, break, breaking angle, break length, spin direction, spin rate and a handful of other things that effect how the baseball will move.

Once we have all of those numbers, we can use math and science to determine if what it says happened should have happened.... and well, it does work out that way. It is exactly the reason we can get Pitch flight graphs like these:




Or get incredible scouting reports on pitchers like this one on Johnny Cueto: http://brooksbaseball.net/player_car...?player=456501

[M2]

Nice outing by Leake today. K/BB for the spring is up to 4.00. That stat is really becoming the hallmark of what it means to be a Reds pitcher. I suppose we have Mr. Price to thank for that, and Mr. Arroyo for being the role model.

Anyway, this is the time of ST when starting pitchers need to be rounding into form. Encouraging performance.

[dougdirt]

Doug, does this take into consideration the consistency of the pitcher's arm slot and release point?

It records the release point on every pitch.

The charts I posted were simply from the average release point, with all of the averages on that given pitch. But, we can get all of that data on every pitch.

[757690]

HR/FB, BABIP, LOB%....those things really aren't something they control-they almost always regress, especially when they spike to a level that is significantly better than average.

Krate, BBrate, batted ball tendencies....those are very repeatable.

Most pitchers aren't who they are @ 25 because they are still working on command and pitchability etc. Those hurdles are largely crossed by Leake. That's a big reason he was a first round selection. That's why I worry he doesn't have room for a trampoline in his living room.

I guess I never bought into the narrative that Leake had great command or pitching smarts. He might have an high I.Q., but that doesn't make him a smart pitcher. When I watch him pitch, I don't see anything that tells me that he has great command or knows how to pitch.

Think about it, if he really did have great command of four pitches, he wouldn't be giving up 26 homers a season. There are plenty of pitchers with similar velocity as Leake who have out up much better numbers, Wainright, Lohse, Colby Lewis, Dempster, etc, so we can't just blame it on him being a soft tosser. There really isn't anyone who has great command and pitching smarts who has been has mediocre as Leake. If the Reds really did think had great command and pitching smarts when they drafted him, they clearly were wrong.