"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Well, as a whole, it varies a bit. Depending on which pitch he throws, his release point is different a little bit. From 2010-2011, there wasn't much variance at all from his overall cluster of pitches. However from 2011-2012, his release points all moved up about 2.5 inches.
Thanks, Doug. That tells me a little bit with regard to the movement. He may have moved up a little to get a little extra bite on the cutter, but I bet it has cost him some movement on his fastball.
The cool thing about Mariano Rivera's cutter and fastball is that they both come out of the same arm slot and release point which makes it extremely difficult to pick up. Lots of deception with the same release point, and he is basically a two pitch pitcher.
I have tried to ensure that all of my son's pitches (fastball, change, curve and cutter) come out of the same release point. He also throws close to over the top which gives him a great downward plane, and is a little different than most left-handers. He also has not sacrificed movement on his fastball by coming over the top which is also a little unusual. He is very difficult to square on a consistent basis. I have found that the release point being the same on all his pitches makes a huge difference.
Dave Cameron today:
"I'm a Mike Leake fan"
Take it for what it's worth.
That's an awfully big exaggeration. If it were just throwing it in the zone as you suggest, big league hitters would tee off so bad a guy wouldn't last two starts in the majors.
Leake is striking out 16% of batters faced. Clearly he's not just throwing it down the middle like you're insinuating. To have a nearly 2.7-to-1 K:BB rate in 500 professional innings -- all at the big league level -- that's command.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
I wasn't insinuating he is a batting tee. Just that guys don't swing and miss at his stuff often. But if guys are hitting the pitches you throw in the strikezone, and they most certainly do with Leake, they aren't as likely to get deeper into the counts as often, thus lowering the walk rate as a by product.
To expand, the starters who had 90% of higher contact rate against in 2012 or higher, only one (of 24) had a walk rate of 10% or higher. Is it entirely coincidence? Yeah, I guess it could be. But I doubt it.
klw (03-28-2013)
The physics involved are basically lift. So you basically get a measure relative to what would have happened differently than if it was only gravity affecting it. The spin in the ball affects the flow of air around it. For a fastball with backspin, this creates a pocket of low pressure above the ball, which results in a small amount if lift - same principal as a plane's wing.
So instead of falling 40 inches it only falls 34 inches, meaning it had 6 inches of "rise".
(I know you probably know that, was for everybody's benefit)
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
jimbo (03-28-2013)
As a famous though anonymous haiku writer of the Pre-Shiki period once quilled:
Lift, fourseam fastball,
Lift, the illusion of rise,
Lift, a lack of sink.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
ding ding.
He doesn't walk a ton of guys, but he allows a lot of baserunners via the hit. His sample size is three years, with no minor league seasons, so I'll grant the sample is smaller than Cueto at the same point in MLB. But he's had only 1 season where his H/9 was below 10, and only 1 season where his K/9 was above 6.
He has this reputation as a ground ball pitcher, but his GB/FB ratio is 1.00.
His MLB WHIP for his career is 1.33, a little high, but not too high for a 5th starter, certainly higher than one would expect from a 1st round pick. and that WHIP is seriously hit driven. Walks may haunt, but hits kill.
And the types of hits. To suggest he's a batting tee might not be all that inaccurate, at least last year. 26 HR's, 46 doubles, 5 triples. Tell me you don't want those numbers from Jay Bruce.
http://thebaseballcube.com has a wealth of pitch information.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
I didn't know this (other than a rising fastball is actually on that does not sink as much). I had no idea it was a product of lift. I never really thought about the why... I think my best guess would have been that the seams acted like miny paddles and a spin grabbed the air causing the lift. I am clearly no physic guy.
... so Thank you. This was certainly to MY benefit.
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