Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

[edabbs44]

Johnny Cueto 2008-2010 (ages 22-24)

32-32, 4.27 ERA, 531 innings, 1.348 WHIP, 1.2 HR/9, 2.31 SO/BB

Mike Leake 2010-2012 (ages 22-24)

28-22, 4.23 ERA, 485 innings, 1.332 WHIP, 1.3 HR/9, 2.54 SO/BB

[_Sir_Charles_]

IMO, it's selling Leake extremely short to view him as nothing more than a #5 guy. I expect him to spend most of the rest of the 2010s as an above average starter. He's got four pitches, a great competitive brain, and his command and velocity should both be on the improve.

Had he spent 2010 and 2011 dominating the minors (and he would have done exactly that), then we'd be looking at 2012 in a far different light. Instead he broke straight through to the majors and we've seen more of his learning curve as a result. Remember, almost no one can make the jump straight to the majors from the college ranks. It takes a lot of talent to do it and survive.

Leake is 25 and he's a good bet for a K/BB of 3.00. His best day are ahead of him and I suspect his best days are going to be pretty good.

I can't agree with this more. I can't believe how much Reds fans are selling Leake short. He's not a flame-thrower, but he's got FANTASTIC stuff. Movement like crazy on everything. I fully believe he's got top half of the rotation kind of stuff. Not "ace", but a solid #2.

[dougdirt]

Johnny Cueto 2008-2010 (ages 22-24)

32-32, 4.27 ERA, 531 innings, 1.348 WHIP, 1.2 HR/9, 2.31 SO/BB

Mike Leake 2010-2012 (ages 22-24)

28-22, 4.23 ERA, 485 innings, 1.332 WHIP, 1.3 HR/9, 2.54 SO/BB

Numerically, they are close.

Stuff wise? No one would confuse the two. Cueto averaged 93.1 MPH with his fastball as was able to touch 97. Mike Leake averaged 89.1 MPH with his fastball and was able to touch 93.

Using Fangraphs pitch values, Johnny Cueto from 2008-2010 had positive numbers overall in his fastball and slider to go with negative numbers in his 2 seamer and change up, though in 2010 his change up showed positive numbers and his 2 seamer made a big jump forward in value, though did remain negative. We saw marked improvement across the board in from 2008 to 2009 and 2009 to 2010 with Cueto in those numbers.

Using Fangraphs pitch values, Mike Leake had negative numbers overall in his fastball, cutter, slider, curveball and change up. Every pitch. His cutter has gotten better each year and was a positive pitch in 2012. The rest of his pitches showed some improvements in 2011, then tanked in 2012.

[REDREAD]

It's not.

Unless you have someone on the roster that may be better. Which the Reds do.

Key word is "may"

If Chapman was given the entire season as a starter in 2013, I think it's a toss up of whether he's better than 2013 Leake though. If I had to bet, I'd say that he'd be worse than Leake.

Chapman starting was a long term project, that probably wouldn't have paid dividends until 2015. Look at how long it took Homer to develop. Granted, he was rushed, but being a MLB starter is not easy, even for someone like Homer/Chapman who is blessed with great talent. Heck, this is not a slam on Homer, but he's still a work in progress. (Still untapped potential).

I just remember last spring, just about everyone on this board was willing to trade Arroyo for a bag of balls, due to one bad year.. All these arguments about how Arroyo's peripherals were predicting this crash for years; somehow Arroyo had a 7 year run of good luck. So now, Leake is coming off a down year. Lots of folks ready to toss Leake in the dumpster now, despite what he did in 2010-2011. Despite the fact that Leake started directly in the majors (and didn't get a chance to put up gaudy minor league stats).

We'll probably never know how Chapman would've been as a starter, but it's safe to say Chapman would've been mediocre and inconsistent in 2013.

[Raisor]

We'll probably never know how Chapman would've been as a starter, but it's safe to say Chapman would've been mediocre and inconsistent in 2013.

I don't think it would be safe to say he'd be "mediocre".

Inconsistent, sure.

Chapman at 150 IP with 10k per 9 and an era in the mid 4's is what I'd expect.

[Scrap Irony]

Chapman at 150 IP with 10k per 9 and an era in the mid 4's is what I'd expect.

I think Leake can give you more IP with the same ERA.

Diff'rent strokes, Mr. Drummond.

[RadfordVA]

I think Leake can give you more IP with the same ERA.

Diff'rent strokes, Mr. Drummond.

Add to that Leake would give you nowhere near the production Chapman will in bullpen. You pretty much lose what value Leake has altogether. This way you get two players who contribute in 2013.

[Red in Atl]

Or.. He's an immature headcase. One that was poised to make millions who decided to shoplift t-shirts.

I personally wonder how much of the Anti-Leake comments stem from this one silly episode?

He was cleared of the shoplifting charge. He bought the wrong size shirts, took them back and swapped them out for what he wanted. Anyone who's gone into Macy's or any other department store during the day knows there are not enough staff on the floor. So he got tired of waiting for someone to show up and took care of the problem himself. Problem was he got caught, and he didn't have his receipt with him.

Bad decision - yes. Does it make him "an immature headcase"? No.

[dougdirt]

I personally wonder how much of the Anti-Leake comments stem from this one silly episode?

He was cleared of the shoplifting charge. He bought the wrong size shirts, took them back and swapped them out for what he wanted. Anyone who's gone into Macy's or any other department store during the day knows there are not enough staff on the floor. So he got tired of waiting for someone to show up and took care of the problem himself. Problem was he got caught, and he didn't have his receipt with him.

Bad decision - yes. Does it make him "an immature headcase"? No.

Problem is, he knew what he was doing was wrong, whether he was going to have to wait an hour to get someones attention or not. But he still did it. Don't try to make excuses for theft.

[jojo]

I can't agree with this more. I can't believe how much Reds fans are selling Leake short. He's not a flame-thrower, but he's got FANTASTIC stuff. Movement like crazy on everything. I fully believe he's got top half of the rotation kind of stuff. Not "ace", but a solid #2.

The Reds don't seem to be selling him short though. Presumably Leake is part of the reason Chapman is scheduled to close this season.

That said, I don't agree that he's got top of the rotation stuff. He can throw four pitches for strikes which means he doesn't have platoon splits (that's an important thing). He may be able to burn innings.

Thats different than a ceiling of TOR.

[Caveat Emperor]

IMO, it's selling Leake extremely short to view him as nothing more than a #5 guy. I expect him to spend most of the rest of the 2010s as an above average starter. He's got four pitches, a great competitive brain, and his command and velocity should both be on the improve.

Don't see it -- he's too slight of a guy to really add velocity, and his command doesn't need much improving. His problem is that he can't throw hard enough to really worry hitters with his fastball, and his secondary offerings aren't deceptive enough to induce a lot of swings and misses.

[RollyInRaleigh]

Problem is, he knew what he was doing was wrong, whether he was going to have to wait an hour to get someones attention or not. But he still did it. Don't try to make excuses for theft.

He made a mistake. Continue to drag him down the toilet. "Ye without sin cast the first stone." Sheesh!

[dougdirt]

He made a mistake. Continue to drag him down the toilet. "Ye without sin cast the first stone." Sheesh!

I didn't bring it up to begin with. But I am also not going to make an excuse for stealing something or read someone else doing it and not say something about it.

[RollyInRaleigh]

I didn't bring it up to begin with. But I am also not going to make an excuse for stealing something or read someone else doing it and not say something about it.

He made a mistake. He's certainly not the only, or last person on this team that has made a mistake. Get over it.

[TRF]

I don't think it would be safe to say he'd be "mediocre".

Inconsistent, sure.

Chapman at 150 IP with 10k per 9 and an era in the mid 4's is what I'd expect.

Yu Darvish. I'd take that.

He made a mistake. Continue to drag him down the toilet. "Ye without sin cast the first stone." Sheesh!

Whole lotta stones cast at Chapman though