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Thread: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

  1. #181
    Member jimbo's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    His fastball certainly has movement. But from year 1 to year 3, it has gotten less run and less sink. That isn't a good trend.
    Can you show me some evidence of this, or is it your opinion? Not trying to be snarky, I'm just curious because everything that I found and watched showed me otherwise.

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  3. #182
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Jeff shaw once talked about how the harder you grip that ball the less movement you'll get on your fastball.....said early in his career he was trying so hard and never realized how hard he was gripping it, later in his career as he learned to rely more on mechanics as opposed to brute strength he figured out that holding his fastball loose allowed it to run....

    I am sure this is something that is well known by pitching coaches but it sure makes you wonder if Leake isn't pressing a little knowing that he has been fighting for the 5th and final spot in our rotation.....just a thought

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    RANDY IN INDY (03-27-2013), REDREAD (03-27-2013)

  5. #183
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by jimbo View Post
    Can you show me some evidence of this, or is it your opinion? Not trying to be snarky, I'm just curious because everything that I found and watched showed me otherwise.
    Sinker
    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...=SI#battedball

    Year - Horizontal movement - Vertical movement (lower number means more sink, higher number means it "rises")
    2010 - -8.6inches - 2.3 inches
    2011 - -7.9 inches - 3.9 inches
    2012 - -7.8 inches - 5 inches

    He is getting less run and more rise every year so far on his sinker, which is his main fastball. Though he does mix in his cutter quite often too.

  6. #184
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    I don't remember the poster but a proponent of Leake suggested he can improve to be a TOR arm (like a #2 guy I think would be a fair interpretation).

    Is the argument that he can improve his command and possibly turn one of his pitches into something that misses bats and these changes are enough to transform him from the below average starter he has been into a #2ish type guy?

    I'm having real trouble seeing the room between his head and ceiling concerning his command and stuff to allow that.....

    It's easy to dream on a guy. "Da Dream" should be Homer's nickname. But Leake has kind of maxed out on the two biggests things that chage a pitcher-command/stuff and pitchability.
    Last edited by jojo; 03-27-2013 at 01:15 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #185
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    His sinker is rising?
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
    Fame is man given: be thankful.
    Conceit is self given: be careful.

    John Wooden

  8. #186
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY View Post
    His sinker is rising?
    Technically, no, because gravity exists and the release angle in which the ball is thrown. Even a "rising" fastball sinks. They just sink much less. Aroldis Chapman for example has an 11.2 inch "rise" on his fastball, but it obviously has sink to it because of the release angle and gravity doing it's work. Mike Leake on the other hand is at 5 inches, which is a whole lot less "rise", meaning it is actually "sinking" 6 inches more than the one that Chapman throws. But Leake in 2010 was getting 9 inches more "sink" than what Chapman was last year. Leake has lost nearly 3 full inches of "sink" on his sinker since 2010.

  9. #187
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    How accurate is this technology?
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
    Fame is man given: be thankful.
    Conceit is self given: be careful.

    John Wooden

  10. #188
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY View Post
    How accurate is this technology?
    Very.

    If you have some questions about it, ask them. I won't be back at the computer until about 6 tonight, but when I get back I will try to answer anything you want to know about it.

  11. #189
    Member jimbo's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Sinker
    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...=SI#battedball

    Year - Horizontal movement - Vertical movement (lower number means more sink, higher number means it "rises")
    2010 - -8.6inches - 2.3 inches
    2011 - -7.9 inches - 3.9 inches
    2012 - -7.8 inches - 5 inches

    He is getting less run and more rise every year so far on his sinker, which is his main fastball. Though he does mix in his cutter quite often too.
    What does FC stand for? I am assuming a fastball cutter?

    That's his second most used pitch and he has increasingly used it compared to his rookie year. If I am reading those numbers correctly, his "sink" on those pitches has improved. Tell me if I am seeing that right, or if I'm completely out of the park, lol. I'm really new to this.

    2010 - -2.0 4.5
    2011 - .1 4.2
    2012 - .5 3.2

    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...130&position=P

  12. #190
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by jimbo View Post
    What does FC stand for? I am assuming a fastball cutter?

    That's his second most used pitch and he has increasingly used it compared to his rookie year. If I am reading those numbers correctly, his "sink" on those pitches has improved. Tell me if I am seeing that right, or if I'm completely out of the park, lol. I'm really new to this.

    2010 - -2.0 4.5
    2011 - .1 4.2
    2012 - .5 3.2

    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...130&position=P
    Yeah, his cutter was the only "positive" pitch he had last year. He threw it more in 2011 than 2012, but it was better in 2012 than in 2011. It is getting more sink and less run (which is what you want with a cutter).

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  14. #191
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Very.
    How are you so sure? How does these "pitch movement" numbers get determined and who or what determine them? How can we be so sure that they make every variable in baseball so cut and dry. How can this one stat, that says Leake's "sink" has dramatically worsened, be so accurate that we can discount what scouts and our own eyes see?

    I've always been leery of these these types of stats but am willing to learn them and form my own opinion of them.

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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I don't remember the poster but a proponent of Leake suggested he can improve to be a TOR arm (like a #2 guy I think would be a fair interpretation).

    Is the argument that he can improve his command and possibly turn one of his pitches into something that misses bats and these changes are enough to transform him from the below average starter he has been into a #2ish type guy?

    I'm having real trouble seeing the room between his head and ceiling concerning his command and stuff to allow that.....

    It's easy to dream on a guy. "Da Dream" should be Homer's nickname. But Leake has kind of maxed out on the two biggests things that chage a pitcher-command/stuff and pitchability.
    If you believe that a pitcher can control his home runs allowed, than you would have to believe that Leake can lower his. I think it's fair to say that he has lot of room of improvement in locating his pitches, at least locating 26 of them last season.

    Remember, just the slightest improvement for a pitcher can yield substantial results. If he allowed half as many homers last season, and they were all solo, he would have an 3.92 ERA. I'm not smart enough to figure out his FIP, but I imagine it would be much better as well.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  16. #193
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If you believe that a pitcher can control his home runs allowed, than you would have to believe that Leake can lower his.
    I don't and history suggests they can't. That Leake gives up more is an anomaly but it is also a consistent one that seems to be a manifestation of his stuff.


    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I think it's fair to say that he has lot of room of improvement in locating his pitches, at least locating 26 of them last season.
    Lets all cross our fingers and hope in unison.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Remember, just the slightest improvement for a pitcher can yield substantial results. If he allowed half as many homers last season, and they were all solo, he would have an 3.92 ERA. I'm not smart enough to figure out his FIP, but I imagine it would be much better as well.
    The guy doesn't miss bats and he gets whacked around. It's asking alot to expect him to become something radically different without a tangible change in "him".
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  17. #194
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Maybe it is just me, but if his average FB is 89, then maybe what I was seeing was when he tried to throw harder. it SEEMED to me to be very straight when thrown harder. maybe he gets more movement at his average speed. But he's giving up a lot of HR's. He's a reputed groundball pitcher that is giving up a lot of HR's. That tells me his best pitch ain't working.

    but that's just my opinion. I didn't like the Leake pick when it happened. And his stellar rookie year was mostly and unsustainable babip early on, after June in 2010, he was exposed for his inexperience. Which is natural. However, has he actually improved? I don't see that he has. Can he? maybe.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  18. #195
    Arbiter of Good Taste OGB's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    That is absolutely stealing. He left the store with items that he was not authorized to leave with.
    I agree with you that people should be held accountable for mistakes they make, and maybe Leake, as someone who has likely been coddled for years as a star athlete, thought the normal rules didn't apply to him and he'd exchange it without having to wait around like a normal person.
    That said, I think it's worth making the distinction because stealing implies dishonesty and deception. If he merely exchanged clothing of equal value without going through the proper channels, I'd say *at worst* that implies immaturity and arrogance, which are easily grown out of from 22 years old and on. It isn't as if he was stuffing things into his jacket and sneaking out of the store.
    I may not be fast, but I sure am slow.


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